Counterpoint: This is race is not going to be particularly close. Here are a bunch of reasons why: 1. Alan Wilson is going to have exceptional coattails. He wins by a minimum 10 points, and I think honestly probably closer to 12, despite the environment. 2. By contrast, there is zero interest and excitement in the Dem ticket. Andrews is a flawed and uninspiring candidate. Johnson - who should have been a pretty good gubernatorial candidate - has run an extremely meh campaign. For either of them to have a shot, they'd both need to be firing on all cylinders. The rest of the ticket is a veritable "Who's that?" of Democratic activists. 3. There is outside money being spent here, but not serious money. It's placation money. It's the political equivalent of buying your kid a pack of Skittles in the checkout line so they'll stop pitching a fit. Smart money doesn't think Andrews has a shot. 4. The SCDP turnout and GOTV operations are absolute ass (pun sort of intended). They are not investing in places where they could actually have an impact, and they're perpetually stuck on Hail Mary plays like Andrews instead of investing locally where small wins could impact the state more broadly. 5. Speaking of ground games....I'm a paid media guy through and through, but the ground game DOES matter in races like this. The SCGOP Victory program being lead by @SteveWMichael and the Team Graham effort being run by @MarkTKnoop are both really, really good and will be worth more than people think on election day. 6. The path to a Dem having a prayer in SC runs through CD1, and no serious person thinks Jenny Costa Honeycutt is going to lose to Nancy Lacore. 7. The write-in / third party effort from erstwhile conservatives is happening in a terminally online echo chamber. They're loud, not numerous. Whatever polling is showing today, it's going to shake out about like this: Graham 53, Andrews 46, 1 percent odds and ends.