
Founder/CEO/CIO-@50TFunds. DTAP Capital/AGCOA/GBI. Macro PM-20yrs. 5GOATS. Btc+Bullion hodler.
50Tfunds.com
Joined May 2018
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Still thinking chip shot to 100k for BTC.
Little abc sideways correction hopefully nearing end. Still cup and handle.
All the focus on AI/Coreweave cds/SpaceX/Anthropic ipo/Ndx.
Great time for a face ripper.
🚀🚀
Odds are btc ends up on the year.
Regardless, odds are strong that next year is an up year.
Hold on. 🚀🚀
Had a lunch with @peterthiel in nyc 20 years ago.
In the room was Bob Rubin, @novogratz and a few other old time macro guys (hosted by citi if i recall).
Peter spoke for 20min.
Argued US economy was failing.
"We were promised flying cars," he said.
Today. He got them.
WTF.
Fed's concerns on inflation misplaced.
"Token prices are going to trend to 0." @APompliano
Without Iran issue inflation would be lower.
Could be that it feels more like '97 than '99 (PTJ)
H/T Charles-Henry Monchau
What inflation?
Wages are 75% of total US inflation.
Warsh knows better.
2yr yield excessive.
We don't need more hikes.
Bullish Nasdaq, gold, btc, dae into year end.
🚀🚀
Typical old school sign of financial distress.
French bond yields at widest spread to Germany since 2012 Euro crisis.
Fiat stress.
Sign that US and European liquidity tightening overdone...
...And will get reversed.
Watch gold for bull run restart. Btc fast on heels.
Wtf Fed.
Policy error becoming clear.
Terrible US consumer confidence report.
Jobs subcomponents especially weak, second weakest since '20 covid mess.
6-mo outlook, 63.6, "below 80 which Conference Bd says signals potentially recessionary outlook."
Fri report should be weak.
Old Macro time.
Longest and biggest base of my career in the markets.
Truly a once in a lifetime chart with open ended upside.
2yr japanese interest rate...has killed off many short traders.
CPI is 1.9%.
Gross public debt at $9T, 200% of gdp.
Real interest rates still 0.
Zcash is up 25x+ in the past yr and people wonder whether crypto is going into a bull mkt?
Huh?
But crypto is hard...
Post below from Nov 10, 2025. The @50t view.
U can nail the right view and not make $.
Max conviction must mean a max position.
Hats off to the ZHODLers.
Pretty straightforward for BTC.
Textbook cup and handle breakup.
An entire year of selling just swallowed up in the past 5 weeks.
Bears and shorts F-ed.
Solid break of 100k goes right back to 120k.
Could even be this year.
Why AI needs blockchain.
**Holding AI to the Truth: Why Blockchain Matters** (written with assistance from @Grok.
Artificial intelligence is extraordinary at producing fluent answers. It is less reliable at producing *settled* ones. On occasion — more often than casual users admit — models *hallucinate*: they invent citations, invent facts, invent confidence. The output can look authoritative and still be wrong. That is not a moral failing of the machine; it is a property of probabilistic generation without a shared ledger of what actually happened.
In July 2019, on Real Vision with Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) macro investor Dan Tapiero (@DTAPCAP) named the other half of this problem years before “AI agents” entered every pitch deck. Bitcoin, he argued, is not merely a coin. It is an *invention* — and at its core, “a truth machine”: a system bought for “certainty, of confirmation, of validity, of security,” a platform with a track record that makes fraud and silent revision harder. He later sharpened the phrase to “security truth machine.” (Popular memory sometimes upgrades that to “automatic truth machine”; the idea is the same.)
The distinction that matters for AI is precise. A blockchain does not magically know whether a claim about the physical world is true. It does not replace science, journalism, or judgment. What it *does* provide is **immutable, shared state**: who signed what, who paid whom, which model version ran, which data hash was used, which action an agent took and when. Once written under consensus rules, that record is extremely hard for any single party — including an AI system acting on someone’s behalf — to rewrite quietly.
That is exactly the property generative models lack. An LLM can narrate a trade that never settled, a contract that was never signed, a medical note that was never reviewed. An agent economy that scales without rails for settlement, identity, and audit is an economy of plausible fiction at machine speed. Tokenized dollars, on-chain credentials, and programmable settlement are not crypto fashion statements in that frame; they are **truth infrastructure for machine actors**.
Tapiero’s 2019 insight travels forward cleanly into the AI decade. The internet digitized information. Crypto digitizes value *and* verifiable record. If artificial intelligence is going to operate as a participant in markets, payments, and institutions — not merely as a chatbot — then “holding AI to the truth” cannot mean hoping the next model is nicer. It means binding machine action to ledgers that do not hallucinate their own history.
Blockchain is not the answer to every truth. It is the answer to a narrower, more urgent one: **who did what, with what authority, and can anyone erase the receipt?** In a world of confident machines, that receipt is not optional.
—
*Source: Tapiero × Raoul Pal, Real Vision “The Future of Macro Investing” (~Jul 2019), ~00:09:46 — “What it really is, is it’s a truth machine.” youtube.com/watch?v=BtjziNDq…*
A short and rare late night rant from me....
Ya. I didn't forsee this hawkish Fed hike.
Especially with core cpi at 2.4%.
Yet, there is no immediate impending inflationary doom.
They could have waited 6 wks post election. Would not have mattered.
No question this hike and another one will hit sentiment and reduce odds of a strong R showing in mid-terms.
The center of economic and financial power has moved West and resides with the tech crowd. IE Top 10 US billionaires are US tech. Tradfi Wall St/DC guys now small and less relevant in comparison.
Influence and power is shifting. Was very obvious at the All-In Summit I attended in LA that the US economic leaders 10 years from now are the Gen Xers who were in that room.
All futurists..imnovators..space, robots, ai, autonmous vehicles, crypto/blockchain etc etc.
Liquidity funds exploration.
Was Warsh ever really on board with that thesis? Was he ever truly supportive of the Trump agenda?
Strikes me there is a Trojan horse component here but for whose interests I don't know. The East Coast traditionalists? What do they want? To remain relevant? Who knows.
Warsh would not have been appointed had he originally told Trump that his first move 6 wks before mid terms would be a hawkish hike.
Bessent seems fully behind the Trump and the futurist agenda in every regard. If he were Fed chair, would he have hiked 6 wks before an extremely contentious election?
I doubt it.
Oil move has been enough of a negative liquidity shock and now there is a pile on with this newly aggressive and poorly timed Fed posture.
Feels like stock mkt about to get bumpy. The higher the mkt goes the greater justification the Fed will have to hike even more. Mkt weakness will not be able to reverse Fed policy unless it becomes severe and dire... and timing could not be worse to attempt this experiment now.
I do not see how this ends well.
Unclear how it resolves.
All happening too close to election.
Expect Warsh/Trump tension.
Only AI mega bull trend can overshadow but unclear that it will.
Basic business will have difficulty with real yields at 30yr highs.
Btc as safe haven.




















