Prof @SAISHopkins. Former Special Envoy @StateDept and VP @USIP. Dad of @JaredSerwer + @AdamSerwer. @Palgrave published my Strengthening International Regimes.

Washington DC
Joined October 2010
peacefare.net retweeted
This is quite something ! Serbian RTV channel starts yesterday's bulletin by apologizing to viewers👇 "For years, we failed to fulfill our duty. We kept silent, turned a blind eye, reported events one-sidedly and failed to ask necessary questions. We owe our viewers an apology”
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Trump is certainly showing his autocratic stripes:
In case you missed it: US democracy in its death throes.
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peacefare.net retweeted
On this Israeli election day, I’d recommend reading this extraordinary @haaretzcom interview with billionaire Ronald Lauder, president of the World Jewish Congress and once one of Benjamin Netanyahu’s closest confidants. One of Lauder’s most striking conclusions: “I realized at the end of the day that Israel really didn't want peace, but they wanted dominance.” This is coming from someone who helped launch Netanyahu’s political career, introduced him to powerful figures in American politics and media, and secretly negotiated with Hafez al-Assad and Rafik Hariri on his behalf in the late 1990s. In one of the interview’s biggest revelations, Lauder says Netanyahu agreed to a comprehensive peace deal with Syria and Lebanon, including withdrawal from the Golan Heights, but ultimately refused to sign it for political reasons. “He chose politics over peace. He put his political future before the deal.” Now 82, Lauder describes his profound disillusionment with Israel’s direction. After decades of supporting Israeli and Jewish institutions, he has sold his Tel Aviv apartment, given away his Be’er Sheva property, and says he has no intention of returning to Israel. He warns that Netanyahu’s dependence on figures like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich is damaging Israel, alienating diaspora Jews and eroding support in Washington. The interview is also full of fascinating details about Lauder’s role in Netanyahu’s political rise. The two became close friends in the 1980s, when Netanyahu was Israel’s ambassador to the UN, speaking almost daily at times. Lauder says he introduced Netanyahu to speech coach Lilyan Wilder to improve his public speaking and, crucially, to Republican strategist Arthur Finkelstein, who would become instrumental in Netanyahu’s electoral success. When Netanyahu left New York to pursue a political career in Israel, Lauder threw him a farewell party attended by some of the most influential figures in American media and politics, including Rupert Murdoch and the head of the New York Times. Lauder recalls opening doors for Netanyahu and helping him cultivate the relationships that would underpin his rise to power. What makes this interview so revealing is that Lauder is no longtime critic of Israel. He had been a committed Zionist, a Republican power broker, and a man who spent decades financing Jewish institutions, cultivating relationships with Arab leaders, and pursuing diplomatic openings on Israel’s behalf. A fascinating read 👇 haaretz.com/israel-news/elec…
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peacefare.net retweeted
Stunning to contemplate that even in a preferential democracy where Palestinian citizens of Israel suffer discrimination that it may be their votes that returns Israel to a more democratic path from the populist undemocratic nationalism of Netanyahu's brand.
Half-way through Election Day and turnout is highest in over 50 years. In part driven by the Arab vote. If this continues until 2200 the Netanyahu bloc will shrink further and the hard-right Amcha Yisrael party increasingly unlikely to cross the electoral threshold. OTOH also the Eisenkot bloc will be smaller and the only option for them to form a government will be some kind of deal with the Arab parties.
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peacefare.net retweeted
More photos from Trump Jr's luxury hunting trip in Mongolia with Putin crony that only two months before paid for an island party for the entire Trump family.
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That’s 4 gifts to Russia and nothing for Ukraine. Great idea for Moscow.
How to end the war... Step 1️⃣: Trump tells Putin he can have the Donbas + no NATO for Ukraine. He’ll have 48 hours to agree to our generous terms or else we'll increase sanctions & massively reinforce Ukraine via aid & long-range weapons. Step 2️⃣: Trump tells Zelensky he must also agree in 48 hours or else we'll sanction Ukraine & shut off Starlink.
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peacefare.net retweeted
Serbia’s student movement is ideologically diverse: pro-Western, pro-Russian, and neutral voices coexist. What united them was the demand to restore the rule of law. By focusing on democracy rather than foreign policy, they avoided Vučić’s strategy of using geopolitics to polarize society. It was a smart move. Now comes the real test. Russian media appearances today and statements about refusing sanctions on Russia are already emerging. But with a government yet to be formed and presidential elections ahead, it’s too early to draw firm conclusions. Strategic ambiguity may be understandable. Still, Serbia has been here before. After Milošević’s overthrow, nationalism survived the political transition. The last thing Serbia needs is a Koštunica 2.0!! This means, a change of leadership without a fundamental change in direction. Russia’s leverage is structural. Energy dependence gives Moscow political blackmail, while its entrenched ties within Serbia’s intelligence and security apparatus pose another challenge. Changing individuals won’t be enough; institutions and systems must change (especially BIA and military intelligence) . Also, Diversifying energy supplies takes time, but it ultimately comes down to political will. I’m also watching how individuals linked to the security apparatus are repositioning themselves on social media. That’s concerning and telling but I’m mapping … These are patterns worth watching. Serbia’s real transformation won’t be measured by who takes power, but by whether the new leadership is willing to dismantle the system that have kept the country trapped in the same geopolitical cycle. In other words: A change of government is not necessarily a change of system. This will be the most important test.
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peacefare.net retweeted
Post-Vučić Serbia: - Rule of law gains, as SNS clientelist networks come under pressure. - The new majority might prove fragile, giving Vučić chances to rebuild some support. 1/3
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peacefare.net retweeted
Sırbistan'da öğrenciler doğrudan demokrasi yöntemini seçim siyasetine taşıdılar. Liderlere dayalı, yukarıdan aşağıya bir örgütlenme yerine, herkesin söz alabildiği öğrenci genel kurulları (plenum) oluşturdular. Kararlar tartışılarak, mümkün olduğunca uzlaşmayla alındı. Bu yöntemi üniversitelerin dışına da taşıdılar. Mahallelerde, kentlerde ve köylerde yurttaş meclisleri (zborovi) kuruldu. İnsanlar kendi sorunlarını tartışmak, çözüm önermek ve birlikte karar almak için toplandı. 250 kişilik milletvekili aday listesini de şöyle oluşturdular: 1- Önce 250 adaylık kontenjanı, öğrenci sayılarına göre altı üniversite kenti arasında paylaştırdılar. Belgrad'ın listeye hâkim olmaması için diğer kentlerin de üst sıralarda temsil edilmesini sağladılar. Ardından her kentin kontenjanını fakülteler arasında dağıttılar. 2- Ülke genelinde 80'den fazla fakültede öğrenci genel kurulları toplandı. Öğrenciler kendileri aday olmadı ama her biri aday önerebildi ve neden o kişiyi önerdiğini açıkladı. İsimler tartışıldı, önce uzlaşma arandı, gerektiğinde oylama yapıldı. 3- Mevcut siyasi kadrolara kapıyı kapattılar. İktidar partilerinin mevcut ve eski üyelerini, iktidar adına görev yapmış siyasetçileri ve bürokratları, muhalefet partilerinin üst düzey yöneticilerini aday göstermediler. Böylece hem iktidardan hem de yerleşik muhalefetten bağımsız bir liste oluşturdular. 4- Fakülteler birbirlerinin adaylarını da denetledi. Önerilen bütün isimler ortak bir listede toplandı ve tüm fakültelerin incelemesine açıldı. İtirazlar öğrenci kurullarında tartışıldı. Adayın elenmesi için kurulların yarısından fazlasının veto etmesi gerekiyordu. Tek bir fakültenin itirazı yeterli değildi. 5- Elenen veya çekilen adayların yerine yedekler getirildi. Böylece profesörlerin, doktorların, bilim insanlarının, işçilerin, sanatçıların ve aktivistlerin yer aldığı 250 kişilik liste ortaya çıktı.
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peacefare.net retweeted
cdm.me/kolumne/bursac-moje-s… Aleksandar Vučić je pao, a trojica njegovih najodanijih regionalnih političkih trabanata ostala su bez tutora, mecene i pokrovitelja. Andrija Mandić, Milan Knežević i Milorad Dodik sada liče na tri politička siročeta koja čekaju da im neko kaže šta da misle, koga da napadaju i kome da se poklone. A najveća nevolja tek dolazi: Studentska lista nema jednog gazdu pred čijim vratima mogu klečati. Za Bosnu i Hercegovinu i Crnu Goru to bi mogla biti prva prilika nakon mnogo godina da makar malo prodišu.
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Maybe. Too early to be sure:
There's a second-order impact: end of Serbia's presidentialism by stealth. Vučić - and before him Tadić and Slobo - grabbed power installing a presidential regime. Now we have a return to the Constitution-stipulated parliamentary model. Point made a decade ago by Florian Bieber.
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peacefare.net retweeted
Elon Musk has spent more money on American elections in the last two years than George Soros has in his entire life.
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I hope every Spanish-speaking American citizen will read this before voting next week:
This old fool is demented
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Serbia's must be the most well-read parliament ever, by the way: 160 PhDs in 250 candidates
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peacefare.net retweeted
At the basic mechanical level, the story of Serbia's elections, as those in Brazil, as those in Hungary, is turnout, turnout, turnout. Those who want to defend democracy must, above all, show up. That is the lesson. My short analysis for @odgovor_ba. odgovor.ba/article/28410/
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peacefare.net retweeted
One lesson is that autocrats only lose when facing overwhelming numbers at the ballot boxes. The proverbial cup of frustration must be filled to brim. If races are tight, shenanigans play big role to “fix” the margins, from cheating to media control to lawfare against opposition.
The downfall of Orbán and then Vučić raises interesting questions about competitive authoritarianism. How do you explain the collapse of suchr regimes. Thread 1/4
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Turnout in Serbia was reportedly 70%. In Brazil, 80%. That is the key to defeating electoral authoritarians. Americans and Israelis, including Palestinians: please vote!
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The first worrying sign: the student list leaders’ media outlet of choice is RT, and their main foreign policy message is not a commitment to continuing EU integration, but a promise not to impose sanctions on Russia. And this guy, Jovo Bakic, is considered to be the leader of the leftist part of the movement. A message to Western pundits: Yes, ousting Vucic is a good thing for democracy, but curb your enthusiasm.
🇷🇸 Jovo Bakić za RT Balkan: Studentska lista neće uvoditi sankcije Rusiji ▪️Predstavnik "Studentske liste", profesor Jovo Bakić ponovio je da nova vlada Srbije neće uvoditi sankcije Rusiji, uprkos tvrdnjama bivšeg predsednika Aleksandra Vučića da će se to dogoditi za nekoliko meseci. "Mi Rusiju poštujemo i kao veliku silu i kao našu istorijski važnu partnerku i u mnogim slučajevima zaštitnicu. Tu (u spoljnoj politici zemlje) neće biti nikakvih promena", izjavio je Bakić gostujući u emisiji "Srbija bira" na TV RT Balkan.
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Turnout. People who don't vote enable electoral authoritarianism.
The downfall of Orbán and then Vučić raises interesting questions about competitive authoritarianism. How do you explain the collapse of suchr regimes. Thread 1/4
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