Political Economy Analyst, Keynote Speaker, Author & Futurist specialising in South Africa, Africa & Global trends. Director: Political Futures Consultancy.
Cape Town, South Africa
Joined February 2010
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Once the full election analysis is completed, it will be interesting to see how voters shifted across party lines. Perhaps this new fluidity means much less certainty for all parties as 2029 looms. It’s a less racial, less ideological & less emotional voter going forward.
The ANC will be pressured - from its estranged former Comrades now in other parties - to move back closer together to confront the electoral drift away from the Liberation party. The Ramaphosa faction will face pressure as internal ANC dynamics unfold.
Notice to political parties after the bruising local elections: A little more humility and a little less vindictiveness will be needed while promoting a more unified approach to stopping the rot - after all, that’s what voters voted for.
The DA has done exceptionally well in its Metro vote. But nationally, it may only get 25% of the total vote which is +-3% more than in 2024. Shows you how tough a fragmented electorate is - but it has grown - unlike the ANC which has shed almost 25% of its total support.
While ideological consistency is hard to establish across many South African political parties, this election - significantly - showed that ANC losses do not necessarily means equal gains on the Left or populist flanks. Possibly the least 'ideological' of SA votes thus far.
Replicating the existing GNU coalitions (with ActionSA) could help SA’s metros. The catch? Voters punished the ANC so hard that any lifeline is almost toxic. And, excluding larger parties - if left to local political deals & prejudices) may be highly damaging too. A conundrum.
The DA's results are significant in that it has enhanced its national footprint. While other parties are often regional players, the DA now has a real springboard for a truly national 2029 campaign. But, it has to earn, keep and grow its votes in a crowded market.
The DA is currently double the size of the ANC in the City of Johannesburg. That’s a remarkable result in itself.
ActionSA broke through in Gauteng on the back of a powerful illegal immigrant message alongside voters seeking an ANC alternative. It occupies a new (non-Leftist) space away from the ANC in key urban areas which has eluded the DA despite its more modest gains.
Daniel Silke retweeted
Next time please do separate prediction for all 8 metros in South Africa. This province thing doesn’t give us a clear prediction on metros.
Our third set of CSIR election modelling predictions are out, completing the provincial predictions. Next up - metros!
Working in collaboration with the @SABCPortal, #TeamCSIR has deployed its election prediction model at the National Results Operations Centre (ROC) to support data-driven election analysis throughout the 2026 local government elections.
Our team will continue to monitor incoming results and update model outputs as more official election data becomes available.
Follow along for insights into the science, data and innovation behind the process. #LGE2026
ℹ️ elections.sabcnews.com/
@dstigovza
Part of the ANC's problem: Failing to personalise key Mayoral races cost the party. Anonymous leadership & blank checks might have been acceptible in the past, but hiding accountability in 2026 shed votes.
Conversely, ActionSA can choose to exclude the DA in both Johannesburg & Tshwane. But, the ANC's brand is so tarnished amongst voters that a narrow option like this might damage ActionSA. Tough strategic choices at local level can have profound national ramifications.
In Johannesburg and Tshwane, the DA & ActionSA can govern without the ANC. But, this will conflict with the GNU composition at National. Tough choices where the ANC can be excluded yet that may undermine national cohesiveness.
Snapshot summary of South Africa local government PR vote tallies as at 13h00. Historic urban vote shifts underway. Tough coaltion choices to follow. Great dashboard @alastairotter
We made an election dashboard ... and it's not based on a map. Long story ... love maps but they're overused. What matters in this election is who will run your municipality. So we focused on that. theoutlier.co.za/results
Disastrous Gauteng ANC local government results reflect on both the national ANC leadership as well as its provincial leadership representatives. And the problem is that their succession options don't look as though they have the ability to turn the ship around.
Another coaltion conundrum is given the extent of voter dissatisfaction with the ANC, Opposiiton parties may find increasing resistence from within to allow the ANC a political lifeline if they share the spoils. Being in coaliton with the ANC may also be viewed as toxic.
ActionSA seems to be also taking urban votes from the EFF since it was able to articulate a stronger anti-foreigner sentiment and run with that as a central policy platform to an electorate frustrated with lack of opportunity.
The closer the DA gets to the ANC, the stronger its coalition leverage. But the bigger the DA grows, the bigger the threat the ANC sees.
The DA have long claimed to be the most non-racial party in South Africa. This type of result indicates the party gaining moderate - but significant - new black support. The DA will need to support this new voter as it expands its cross-racial messaging into the future.
