Tanner Thach, the Giants Rnd 18 pick, has a famous relative. His great uncle is Hall of Fame pitcher “Catfish” Hunter. Thach was a long-time top high school prospect in North Carolina. Set to start his college career at UNC-Wilmington in several weeks. No chance he'll sign.
Very, very unlikely the Giants have a shot at signing any of their last 3 picks (the 2 high schoolers & the age-eligible true sophomore from ASU). Seems likely 1 or 2 other guys from today (R11-R20) won't sign. Everybody from Day 1 & 2 will sign, meaning a 15- or 16-person class.
Now almost certain that the Giants will take mostly older college players (with a focus on pitchers) today, during the final 10 rounds of the Draft. Any high schooler, or hi-upside younger college guy, they take will be "courtesy" picks that they know are unsignable.
The one exception I'll make to this prediction is if the Giants take a high schooler from Puerto Rico. Those guys tend to be more agreeable to sign for <= $150K. Especially if they have no major college commitment.
Giants R12 pick, Tyler Vogel, is a skinny & a bit undersized (6', 175) RHP who had a very successful season as Jacksonville's closer in 2022. He's a Covid Soph, so could be an iffy signing. Stop me if you've heard this b4, but he's got abv avg velo, but well below avg control.
Giants R11 pick, RHP Sam Bower from St. Mary's College, isn't going to cost them > $125K to sign. Likely means the Giants don't have much, or any, $$$ left in bonus pool to pay an over slot bonus (> $125K) today.
Minutes away from the start of Day 3 of the 2022 Draft. We should find out early today whether the Giants were able to save enough of their bonus pool on under-slot signings to splurge on 1 or 2 hi-upside prospects today.
I initially thought that SF's first 2 picks (Crawford & Whisenhunt) would sign for between 0% & 5% over slot, but now I'm thinking that Crawford likely will likely cost between 10% & 20% over slot. Didn't initially realize he has 3 more full seasons of college eligibility left.
Giants last 20 picks in rounds 1 - 10 (from the 2021 & '22 Drafts):
College pitchers = 16;
High school pitchers = 1;
College catcher = 1;
College OFers = 2.
That's 80% college pitchers. Definitely found a comfort level. Onus on the org's pitching development gurus/coaches.
Zach Morgan, the Fresno State catcher that the Giants took in Rnd 7, is the type of prospect that I was thinking of when I tweeted this morning that the best value on Day 2 for the Giants should be college position players. Really good value so late in the Draft. Scout report:
