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🚨 Best on X NFL Gauntlet - Week 8 Results
@Stugotzz27 wins the week at +4.13u with a perfect 5-0 card. @Etoft21 holds 1st overall (+11.05u). @Stugotzz27 sits 2nd at +10.88u, @LuCo_94 3rd at +9.40u.
Full season standings in the graphic.
Week 9 picks go in the comments⬇️
🚨 Best on X NFL Gauntlet - Week 7 Results
@LuCo_94 wins the week at +3.75u. @Etoft21 holds 1st overall (+11.18u). @LuCo_94 sits 2nd at +10.56u, @Stugotzz27 3rd at +6.75u.
Full season standings in the graphic.
Week 8 picks go in the comments⬇️
🏈🚨 Dataman NFL BEST BETS 11/8
🔷 Browns +3 at Saints (model -0.3)
🔷 Eagles +3 vs Giants (model -0.1)
Philadelphia is a morning addition. The Giants sat at -3.5 most of the week and the move to -3 put the percentage edge back inside the gate, so the Eagles join Cleveland on the card. Both kicks are at 1.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #NFLPicks
🔷 Browns +3 at Saints
- Shedeur Sanders starts for Cleveland. Deshaun Watson took a helmet-to-helmet hit in Week 8, spent the week in the concussion protocol and did not practice. The line moved to a full Saints -3 on that news.
- Cleveland is 5-3 and New Orleans is 2-5. The team with the better record by three games is getting a field goal on the road.
- We make it Saints -0.3. Cleveland scores 17.4 points a game, 29th in the league, and the total sits at 42.5.
🔷 Eagles +3 vs Giants
- Joe Milton makes his first NFL start for Philadelphia. Jalen Hurts is on injured reserve for the season, Tanner McKee went 0-3 in his three starts and was benched on Wednesday. Milton is the third quarterback up.
- The lookahead line for this game was Eagles -5.5 with Hurts active. It is Giants -3 this morning, an 8.5-point swing. New York has not been favored in Philadelphia since November 1, 2009.
- We make it Giants -0.1. DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks are both out, so Milton debuts without his top two receivers.
🏈 Dataman College Football Best Bets 🏈
Saturday Week 10:
🔷 Missouri +2.5 (model +1.97)
🔷 Baylor -9.5 (model -9.63)
🔷 North Carolina State +4.5 (model +4.02)
🔷 Georgia State +6.5 (model +5.07)
🔷 South Carolina -6.5 (model -8.17)
🔷 Alabama +6 (model +4.25)
🔷 Navy -7 (model -7.89)
🔷 UCF +3.5 (model +2.62)
🔷 Louisiana Tech -5.5 (model -6.2)
🔷 North Texas -16.5 (model -17.62)
🔷 Rutgers +19.5 (model +18.94)
🔷 Georgia Tech +14.5 (model +13.82)
🔷 Liberty -15.5 (model -15.76)
🔷 West Virginia +16 (model +14.38)
🔷 Oregon State -5.5 (model -7.02)
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
UCF +3.5
- Kansas is 3-5 and 1-4 in the Big 12, with a 44.8% home win rate since 2007, worst in the conference
- Kansas is thin up front: starting C Kasen Carpenter and RB Jalen Dupree are out, WR/returner Bryson Hayes is doubtful
- UCF has 12 takeaways and is 15-8 under Scott Frost when forcing a turnover; Kansas blew a 13-0 halftime lead to TCU last week despite outgaining TCU 451-286
Louisiana Tech -5.5
- Louisiana Tech is 7-1 ATS this season and 2-0 ATS as a road favorite; Troy is 3-5 ATS
- Louisiana Tech (6-2, 4-0 Sun Belt, 5 straight wins) has a +11.8 scoring margin per game against Troy's -1.4
- Troy's passing-down offense ranks 111th of 138; Louisiana Tech's red-zone defense ranks 3rd nationally
North Texas -16.5
- North Texas ranks 1st nationally in total offense (540 yards per game) and 2nd in scoring (43.8 per game), with 45+ points in all 5 games of its current win streak
- QB Tayven Jackson has 2,577 passing yards (3rd nationally) and 22 TD at 72.3%; RB Jahiem White is 2nd nationally with 1,047 rushing yards, and North Texas is 6-0 when he tops 100
- Rice is 1-7 on a seven-game losing streak, ranked 122nd in scoring defense, allowing 66.4% completions and 176 rushing yards per game
Rutgers +19.5
- Wisconsin starts true freshman QB Ryan Hopkins in his first career start, with starting LT Kevin Heywood expected out
- Wisconsin has scored 7 or fewer points in 2 of its last 3 games, 10.3 per game over that stretch, including a 30-0 loss at Iowa last week
- Rutgers RB Antwan Raymond leads the Big Ten at 91.6 rushing yards per game (733 yards, 6 TD)
Georgia Tech +14.5
- Louisville ranks 118th nationally in 20-plus-yard passes allowed, and only 3 teams have allowed more 30-plus-yard passes
- Louisville OT Anwar O'Neal remains out; safety Koen Entringer has been in and out of the lineup
- Louisville has allowed at least 34 points in each of its 3 losses, which came by a combined 9 points
Liberty -15.5
- Liberty has won 7 straight and is 6-2 ATS this season
- New Mexico State is changing QBs: Adam Damante went 7-of-20 for 23 yards and 1 INT in a 24-0 loss to Jacksonville State, and Trey Hedden and Kalani McLeod took the first-team reps this week
- New Mexico State's scoring offense is 113th in the FBS (21.5 per game) against Liberty's 7th-ranked scoring defense (13.5 allowed)
West Virginia +16
- West Virginia averages 468 yards and 35 points per game and ranks 2nd nationally in yards per completion
- RB Cam Cook has 923 rushing yards at 5.0 per carry with 7 TD and five 100-yard games
- QB Michael Hawkins Jr. has 2,400-plus combined passing and rushing yards and 27 total TD; West Virginia is off a bye and has won 2 straight
Oregon State -5.5
- Oregon State is 6-2 ATS this season, including 4-2 ATS when favored by 5.5 or more
- QB Braden Atkinson leads the FBS with 2,977 passing yards and 25 TD, with 300-plus passing yards in all 8 games
- Oregon State's No. 1 pass offense (383.4 per game) faces a Texas State pass defense ranked 137th (295.4 allowed); Texas State allows 32.0 points per game, 123rd in the FBS
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/6
🔷 SMU -5.5 vs Virginia Tech (model -6.96)
🔷 Nevada +10 vs New Mexico (model +8.2)
SMU was -6.5 in this morning's First Look post. The re-pull has it at -5.5, so the play stays on the card at a better number - don’t love the line move against us though… Nevada +10 is unchanged.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🔷 SMU -5.5 vs Virginia Tech
- SMU averages 318 passing yards per game, tied for 7th in the country. Virginia Tech ranks 78th in passing yards allowed per game and 82nd in yards allowed per attempt.
- Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,414 yards with 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions at a 73.7% completion rate. He has not thrown an interception since September 26.
- SMU is 5-0 at home this season. Virginia Tech starting left tackle Justin Terry missed Tuesday practice with an injury from the Maryland game and is uncertain, and SMU has 23 sacks and 58 tackles for loss in 8 games.
🔷 Nevada +10 vs New Mexico
- New Mexico has scored exactly 21 points in 3 straight games after averaging 43.4 points per game in its first five. Quarterback Toa Fa'avae has 1 touchdown pass and 6 interceptions in those 3 games, and New Mexico threw for 94, 92 and 111 yards in them.
- Nevada allows 156.9 passing yards per game, 8th in the country, and holds opponents to 30.3% on third down.
- New Mexico starting center Kaden Robnett is out, with the starting left guard shifting to center. Preseason Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Jaxton Eck has missed 3 straight games and is out again. New Mexico has also made just 6 of 12 field goals this season.
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/5
🔷 Southern Miss +13.5 vs James Madison (model +12.78)
Congrats if you grabbed the early lean: Southern Miss +14 this morning. That line has moved half a point in your favor to +13.5
Florida Atlantic +6.5 was the other lean this morning, but UTSA has moved out to -7 and Florida Atlantic no longer meets the best bet filters at the new number, so it is off the official card.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🔷 Southern Miss +13.5 vs James Madison
- James Madison star running back George Pettaway, who leads the Sun Belt with 824 rushing yards, is expected to miss his second straight game. Starting safety Jayon Harvey and red-zone target KD Mosley are also expected out.
- JMU has lost two straight games in overtime and committed 5 turnovers against Troy last week. The Dukes have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 games as a favorite, and this is their third straight Thursday game with no bye until November 21.
- Southern Miss has scored 35 points in back-to-back wins. Jamarice Wilder and Steven Robinson have combined for 554 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns in those two games, both going over 100 yards in each game.
👀 Dataman First Look 👀
Thursday update: the full CFB Week 10 board is re-priced at this morning's numbers - 23 leans in the graphic.
Two go tonight, and both sit inside the official filters: Florida Atlantic +6.5 and Southern Miss +14. The Southern Miss line came in half a point from +14.5 yesterday. Nothing else on the CFB board moved.
The NFL board joins the daily leans post starting today. For Week 9 that is one game at this morning's numbers - Browns +3 on Sunday.
As always, the official best bets posts go up a couple hours before kickoff with the screenshot of the actual model dashboard.
Leans only - not official plays.
#GamblingX #CFBPicks #NFLPicks
👀 Dataman CFB First Look 👀
Wednesday update: 23 leans left on the Week 10 board at this morning's numbers. Arizona moved from -8.5 to -9.5, Navy from -7 to -7.5, Penn State fell off the board, and Florida Atlantic is new on Thursday. Tonight's three MAC games all price outside the model's filters, so this card starts Thursday.
📅 Thursday:
🔷 Florida Atlantic +6.5 (model +4.88)
🔷 Southern Mississippi +14.5 (model +12.82)
📅 Friday:
🔷 SMU -6 (model -6.96)
🔷 Nevada +9.5 (model +7.85)
🔷 Arizona -9.5 (model -10.03)
📅 Saturday:
🔷 Texas -2.5 (model -2.54)
🔷 Alabama +5.5 (model +4.25)
🔷 Miami (FL) +5.5 (model +4.69)
🔷 Baylor -9.5 (model -9.6)
🔷 Kansas State +4.5 (model +3.22)
🔷 Connecticut +6.5 (model +5.04)
🔷 North Carolina State +4.5 (model +4.13)
🔷 Appalachian State -4.5 (model -5.06)
🔷 South Carolina -7 (model -8.15)
🔷 Houston -11 (model -12.87)
🔷 Georgia Southern -10 (model -11.4)
🔷 Navy -7.5 (model -7.58)
🔷 Kansas -2.5 (model -2.63)
🔷 North Texas -16.5 (model -17.22)
🔷 Louisiana -8.5 (model -9.54)
🔷 Georgia Tech +14.5 (model +13.78)
🔷 New Mexico State +17.5 (model +15.84)
🔷 Oregon State -6.5 (model -6.53)
The official best bets post goes up a couple hours before kickoff on game day with a screenshot of the actual model dashboard.
Leans only - not official plays.
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
I’m going to keep proceeding as usual, but worth noting that the morning leans are now 3-0 against the flips when I post the official best bets later in the day. Something to monitor if you see the leans start shifting in our favor throughout the day!
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/3
🔷 Ohio -13 vs Akron (model -13.42)
🔷 Miami (OH) -6.5 vs Buffalo (model -8.03)
Congrats if you grabbed the early leans: Akron +14.5 this morning. That line has moved massively in your favor, all the way through our number to Ohio -13, and the model is on the other side now for the official best bets. Last time this happened we took the L. Hopefully not this time.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
