witnessing the next industrial revolution machines execute, I overthink Markets • Crypto • Web3 • Robotics • AI
Joined December 2023
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This is a scenario to be considerd, as I constantly keep reminding me to keep some liquidity to the scenarios my thesys is wrong. Never assume you're 100% right case there's no 100% to anything
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Arthur Hayes thinks the AI bubble will lead to a Credit Event worse than 2008
"If we do get an AI credit event... it will be bigger than 2008.... and the Fed can't outprint Moore's Law
If this thesis is correct, and you time this well... you'll never work again
So what's the first response by the authorities to save the Banks? They're going to shovel money in...
And all investor capital will rotate to Crypto"
Expect high volatility next couple days lads
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Most people have no idea how the SpaceX IPO works.
Or why everyone is talking about it.
Let me explain it simply:
Why this could become one of the most important IPOs in market history 🧵
But here’s what most people miss:
Big IPOs are dangerous.
Hype ≠ good entry.
Sometimes public markets arrive after most of the gains happened.
The real question isn’t:
“Should I buy?”
It’s:
“Am I paying a fair price?”
Why investors are obsessed:
SpaceX is one of the few companies building infrastructure for industries that barely exist yet.
Think about it:
Before smartphones existed,
Apple was already building the rails.
Same logic here.
Space economy = potentially massive asymmetry.
Why is SpaceX a big deal?
Because it’s not just a rocket company.
It’s:
• rockets
• satellites
• internet infrastructure (Starlink)
• defense contracts
• AI ambitions
• future space economy bets
People aren’t buying “rockets.”
They’re buying a future monopoly thesis. (TechCrunch)
First:
What is an IPO?
IPO = Initial Public Offering.
A private company becomes publicly traded.
Meaning:
For the first time, regular investors can buy shares.
Until now, SpaceX has mostly been accessible to insiders, employees and private capital.
DCA after dump
Strategy has acquired 1,550 BTC for $101 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿845,256. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.0 billion. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy-…
🚨The market didn’t crash because the economy is weak.
It crashed because the economy is too strong.
Here’s what most people completely misunderstood about Friday’s selloff
🧵
The real story?
Leverage.
Margin.
Leveraged ETFs.
Forced liquidations.
Friday looked less like fear…
and more like a cascading deleveraging event.
Why did AI & tech get hit the hardest?
Simple:
Tech companies are priced on future cash flows.
Higher interest rates hurt future valuations more.
The farther the profits are in the future,
the harder the repricing.
Everyone screamed:
“Recession.”
Reality?
The U.S. economy hired almost 2x more workers than expected.
Sounds bullish.
But stronger labor market + sticky inflation = higher probability of higher interest rates.
And markets hate higher rates.
