🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP SAYS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS "OPEN AND OPERATING" Is Trump playing with facts again? Reality check: only 8 ships transited the strait on Tuesday. Pre-war average was 130 to 140 ships per day. Iran's deputy foreign minister called similar claims from Trump "delusion," just today. The Washington Post already ran a piece titled "Trump has declared the Strait of Hormuz open. The facts say otherwise." This is not the first time the claim and the data have not matched. $BTC, oil, and S&P500 all reacted flat to the statement. The market has stopped believing the headline too. 12 years in these markets. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 JAPAN'S GDP JUST MISSED HARD — 1.1% vs 2.0% EXPECTED The headline number is bad. The details are worse. → Private consumption FLAT. First non-positive reading in 8 quarters → Domestic demand SUBTRACTED from growth → Exports were the only thing keeping this positive → Prices rising 2.6% while the economy barely grows This complicates everything I laid out here. BOJ wants to hike in September to defend the yen and fight inflation. But you don't hike into a domestic demand collapse like this. Weak growth. Sticky inflation. Rising rates anyway. Sound familiar? That's the same stagflation trap the Fed is in right now, just hitting Japan first.

🚨 FOMC MINUTES HEADLINE THE WEEK — AUG 17-21 MONDAY, AUG 17 🟡 Japan Q2 GDP (Preliminary) — 23:50 UTC (Sun night into Mon) 📊 Earnings: no major reports before the open TUESDAY, AUG 18 🟡 UK Labour Market data — 06:00 UTC 📊 Earnings: Home Depot (BMO), Toll Brothers (AMC) WEDNESDAY, AUG 19 🔴 FOMC Minutes (July 28-29 meeting) — 18:00 UTC (2:00 PM ET) 🟡 UK CPI (July) — 06:00 UTC 📊 Earnings: Walmart (BMO), TJX, Analog Devices, Lowe's THURSDAY, AUG 20 🔴 Jackson Hole Symposium begins 📊 Earnings: Applied Materials, Ross Stores, Intuit, Salesforce, CrowdStrike FRIDAY, AUG 21 🔴 Japan CPI (July) — 23:30 UTC (Thu night into Fri) 🟢 Jackson Hole continues 🟢 UK Retail Sales (July) — 06:00 UTC 🟢 Flash S&P Global PMIs — UK, Germany, Eurozone 📊 Earnings: Autodesk, Palo Alto Networks Why it matters: FOMC Minutes give the first real detail behind that hawkish hold. Three dissenters wanting a hike right as jobs data was falling apart — the minutes show exactly how that played out. Jackson Hole is where Fed officials historically drop hints about the path ahead. After weak jobs, cooling CPI, and a still-hawkish tone from Warsh, all eyes are on what gets said there. No FOMC meeting this window. But this is where September either gets built or unravels. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THE CRASH OF JAPAN IS STARTING TO LOOK REAL Japan held rates near zero for THIRTY YEARS. That's about to end in September. Japan's central bank is set to hike rates as soon as September. And it plans to move faster after that too. This would be the fastest pace of tightening since 1989. Markets are already pricing in a 74-80% chance of a hike at the September 17-18 meeting. Why now: → Middle East conflict driving inflation risk → Massive AI-driven global demand → The yen still weak despite last month's rare US-Japan intervention The reaction was instant. Japan's 5-year bond yield hit a record high. Here's why this matters way beyond Japan. Three decades of cheap money funded a massive carry trade, sending Japanese capital chasing yield everywhere, including into US assets. As Japanese yields rise, that trade unwinds. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 ONE WALLET IS STILL HOLDING $36M OF $AKE AND AKE JUST HIT A NEW HIGH $AKE turned into a crime token after all. It printed its ATH at 0.0117. Nearly 7,000% since the pump started. $250M market cap. The whale longs on Aster from the early days? Closed. But this one didn't move: 0x3E2BD24eA2aabf4311C3cA61bF5Ce290fF52a448 $36M of AKE, held from the very start of the run. Is it over? Maybe not. $LAB topped at $6B. $RAVE at $5.5B. AKE is still 24x below those. The potential here is massive. And shorting it is pure casino — you can't beat a game where the rules keep changing on you. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: $400 BILLION JUST GOT ADDED TO US STOCKS IN ONE HOUR The rally started today. The S&P 500 just ripped to a fresh all-time high — 7,810. The trigger: a cooler than expected PPI print this morning followed yesterday's calm CPI. Two straight signals that inflation is finally easing. Wall Street didn't hesitate. $400B added to market cap in a single hour. That's not a normal Tuesday, that's euphoria. Bonds even caught a bid on the news. $BTC bounced too, riding the same wave. Stocks, bonds, crypto — all moving the same direction today. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: PPI COMES IN COOL — 4.7% vs 4.9% EXPECTED → PPI YoY: 4.7% → Initial Jobless Claims: 209K (vs 202K expected) Producer prices cooled faster than expected. Jobless claims also came in higher than forecast. Combine this with yesterday's in-line CPI and last week's negative jobs report, and the disinflation case just got a lot stronger heading into September. Rate-cut bets are building. Risk-on across the board. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 PPI AND JOBLESS CLAIMS DROP TODAY — THIS COULD FLIP EVERYTHING AGAIN July PPI and Initial Jobless Claims — 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET) Consensus: → PPI YoY: 4.9% (down from 5.5%) → Initial Jobless Claims: 202K expected (prior: 199K) Three scenarios: IF PPI > expected (hot print) → Market bleeds, pipeline inflation pressure builds toward consumer prices IF PPI in line → Market stays calm, yesterday's in-line CPI narrative holds IF PPI < expected (cool print) → Market pumps, disinflation case strengthens further Why PPI matters: it's a leading indicator. Producer prices today often show up in consumer prices months later. A hot PPI after a calm CPI would be the market's first real warning that this is not over. On Jobless Claims: watch if it breaks meaningfully above 202K. After last week's negative payrolls print, a rising claims trend would confirm the labor market crack was not a one off. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 SEPTEMBER HIKE ODDS JUST DROPPED TO 36.1% ON CME FEDWATCH CPI landed exactly in line today — 3.4% headline, 2.5% core. No surprise. No hot print to justify a hike. The market read it fast: → Hike odds: 36.1% → Down from 44.4% before the release $SPX, $BTC, and bond yields all reacted flat — no major moves in either direction. Combine an in-line CPI with last week's negative jobs report, and the case for holding in September just got stronger. Nothing dramatic happened today. That's exactly why the odds moved without the markets moving. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: CPI LANDS RIGHT IN LINE — 3.4% vs 3.4% EXPECTED → Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY → Core CPI: 2.5% YoY No surprise. No new signal. Combined with the negative jobs report, this locks in the case for a September hold. The Fed has room to breathe. Nothing changes near-term. All eyes shift to the next jobs report and the September FOMC meeting itself. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 TODAY'S CPI COULD TRIGGER A BLOODBATH OR A RALLY July CPI — 12:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET) Consensus: → Headline CPI: 3.4% YoY (down from 3.5%) → Core CPI: 2.5% YoY (down from 2.6%) Three scenarios: IF > expected (hot print) → Market bleeds, hike odds firm back up IF in line (3.4% / 2.5%) → Market stays calm, September hold gets confirmed IF < expected (cool print) → Market pumps, hike case dies completely This is the first CPI to fully reflect the Strait of Hormuz disruption, with oil still elevated. Watch the gap between headline (energy-driven) and core (stickier) — that split is what actually moves the Fed now, not the headline alone. After a negative jobs report, this print decides whether September stays a hold or flips back to a hike debate. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 SAYLOR SOLD $BTC FOR THE THIRD TIME IN A MONTH — AND THE MARKET DOESN'T CARE ANYMORE A few months ago, this headline would've broken crypto Twitter. This time? Almost nothing. Three straight sales: → July 6: sold 2,225 BTC at $60,773 → Aug 3: sold 1,638 BTC at $63,957 → Aug 10: sold 1,690 BTC at $64,262 Every one below $MSTR's average cost basis of $75,385. The first sale was a headline. The third one is just Tuesday. At what point does normalized selling stop being normal? I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS MIGHT START IN JAPAN — NOT THE US While everyone watches the Fed, Japan's government debt market just did something it's never done before. → Japan's 30-year bond yield broke above 4% — first time since 1999 → The 20-year yield hit its highest since 1996 → The 40-year yield hit its highest since it launched in 2007 → The 10-year is climbing too, now above 2.8% Japan has run near-zero interest rates for THREE DECADES. This is the most dramatic shift in Japanese borrowing costs in a generation. Why it's happening: → Japan's central bank is warning inflation could accelerate → One official even floated speeding up rate hikes → Rising oil prices are adding more pressure Here's why this matters beyond Japan: Japan is the world's largest foreign holder of US debt. For decades, near-zero rates at home sent Japanese money abroad chasing better returns — including into US Treasuries. If Japanese yields keep climbing, that changes. Less reason to send money abroad when you can finally get paid well at home. Two of the world's biggest bond markets are cracking in the same direction, at the same time. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: IRAN JUST SAID IT'S DONE TALKING TO TRUMP Iran has completely ruled out any negotiations with the Trump administration. The plan: wait him out. Literally. For the next three years. A senior advisor to the Parliament Speaker said it directly: "Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will accompany him until his term ends." That term ends January 20, 2029. Their stated strategy: "The path to victory is neither fighting nor a deal — it is managing the process of neither war nor peace, up to the point of victory. Denial, ambiguity, and strategic patience." Iran's conditions haven't moved: → $300B in compensation → Release of $100B+ in frozen assets → Full sanctions lifted → US troop withdrawal from the entire region → Transit fees on every ship through the Strait Until any of that happens, the Strait stays closed. This isn't a short-term escalation anymore. This is Iran signaling a multi-year standoff — one that keeps a fifth of global oil supply sitting behind a closed chokepoint indefinitely. Trump's response: "It will work out. It always works out. It's like a chess game." Markets have been pricing this as temporary. Iran just told you it isn't. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 $BTC JUST BROKE THE TRENDLINE — HERE'S THE SETUP FROM HERE After three straight rejections off the same descending trendline, $BTC finally broke through. The structure: → Descending trendline rejected price 3 times before the break → Resistance Zone 1: $65,200-65,800 → Resistance Zone 2: $66,700-67,000 → Retest Zone: $63,600-64,000 Price is currently at $65,131 — right at the edge of Resistance Zone 1. The scenario from here: → Pullback into the Retest Zone ($63,600-64,000) — checking the broken trendline as new support → If that zone holds, next leg targets $65,800 → Clean break above $65,800 opens the path to $67,000 Classic breakout → retest → continuation. As long as price holds above the retest zone, the structure stays bullish. Watch the retest. That's the tell. Not financial advice. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 S&P 500 AT ALL-TIME HIGHS. THE CHART SAYS WE'VE SEEN THIS MOVIE BEFORE. This overlay compares two eras: the Dot-Com run of 1999-2003 against what's now being called the AI Bubble, 2024-???? Same parabolic runup. Same euphoria at the top. The projection on the right isn't a prediction — it's the dot-com path mapped onto today's chart, as a warning of what over-leveraged euphoria can do. Whether it plays out that way or not, three things say the setup rhymes: → BUFFETT INDICATOR: market cap now sits at roughly 230-240% of GDP — the highest reading in the history of the metric. Every previous instance of this level being this stretched was followed by a decline of at least 25%. Dot-com peaked at 146%. 2008 peaked at 109%. We're nearly double the dot-com top. → OVEREXTENDED VALUATIONS: $SPY trading near 31x earnings. Shiller CAPE just hit 40 — a level touched only once before in 150 years of data. That one time was the tech bubble peak. → STAGFLATION RISK: growth just came in weak (GDP 1.5%), payrolls went negative, and inflation is still running above target. Slow growth + sticky prices is exactly the environment that turns "expensive" into "unsustainable" — the Fed can't cut its way out without reigniting inflation, and can't hike without breaking growth further. None of this means the top is today. Dot-com euphoria ran for months after the warning signs were already obvious. But when the market cap dwarfs the economy underneath it, one of two things eventually happens: earnings grow into the price, or the price falls to meet earnings. History says which one usually wins. Markets can stay irrational far longer than logic suggests. This isn't a call to short anything — just a chart worth watching. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 THE MOST IMPORTANT WEEK FOR THE FED SINCE THE JOBS SHOCK — AUG 10-15 After payrolls went negative, this week decides whether the September hold becomes a lock. MONDAY, AUG 10 🟢 No major US data — quiet start before the CPI week WEDNESDAY, AUG 12 🔴 CPI (July) — Headline & Core — 12:30 UTC (8:30 ET) 🟡 Fed speakers: Barkin & Schmid THURSDAY, AUG 13 🟢 PPI (July) — 12:30 UTC (8:30 ET) 🟢 NFIB Small Business Optimism FRIDAY, AUG 14 🟢 Initial Jobless Claims — 12:30 UTC (8:30 ET) 🔴 Retail Sales (July) — 12:30 UTC (8:30 ET) 🟡 Industrial Production — 13:15 UTC (9:15 ET) 🟡 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim) — 14:00 UTC (10:00 ET) Why it matters: CPI on Wednesday is the whole week. After -23K payrolls, a cool inflation print turns the September hold into a done deal. A hot one traps the Fed between weak jobs and sticky prices — the worst spot to be in. Retail Sales tells you if the consumer is finally cracking too. Weak jobs + soft CPI = risk-on. Hot CPI = the whole "hold" narrative gets tested. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 $TUT $46M IN LIQUIDATIONS IN 24 HOURS ON A TOKEN NOBODY KNEW YESTERDAY A token nobody had heard of 24 hours ago just wiped $46M in liquidations. $43.2M of it was SHORTS. Here's how they did it: → +250% in THREE MINUTES on Bitget futures → +170% on Gate futures → Spot price was HALF of the futures mark The perp was trading at 2x the actual spot price. That's not a market. That's a machine built to detonate every short at once. $43M in shorts liquidated on a mark the spot price never even touched. This isn't a "crypto is volatile" story anymore. This is a fabricated price on a regulated-looking exchange, wiping out real people on a number that didn't exist in reality. Will anyone actually be held accountable for this?

🚨 THE SEPTEMBER HIKE JUST DIED — AND THE MARKET REPRICED IT IN A SINGLE MORNING 24 hours ago the Fed was expected to hike in September. Now the market says it holds. The odds flipped hard after the jobs report: → No change: 55.6% → Hike: 44.4% → A week ago the hike was the base case at 63% What flipped it: → July payrolls came in at -23K (economy LOST jobs) → Expected was +83K → May and June revised down by a combined 103K → A 252K job shortfall vs earlier expectations → On top of Q2 GDP that already came in soft at 1.5% You don't hike into a labor market that's shedding jobs and growth that's already slowing. Three Fed members wanted to hike in July. This print just took the wind out of that argument. Next domino: July CPI on August 12. Cool inflation + weak jobs = the hold becomes a lock. Hot inflation, and the Fed's trapped between the two. 12 years in these markets — this is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.

🚨 BREAKING: PAYROLLS JUST WENT NEGATIVE — -23K vs +85K EXPECTED → Non-Farm Payrolls: -23K (forecast was +85K) → Unemployment: 4.1% → June revised DOWN again — from +57K to just +20K Read that again. The US economy LOST jobs last month. This isn't a soft print anymore. This is a labor market that's actually cracking — and the revisions keep confirming it, not walking it back. The hike case just died on the table. Rate-cut bets are back, and they're back hard. Risk-on. Watch $BTC and $SPX rip. I've been reading these markets for 12 years. This is what I do. Follow me and turn notifications on.