Ex-Hearthstone pro & Dreamhack Finalist | Betting, Futurism, Entrepreneurship. Bullish on @Polymarket
Berlin, Germany
Joined October 2014
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Probably the new Wordle for football fans
Highly recommended!
I made a football quiz game where the obvious answer is the worst answer.
7 questions a day, give it a go before midnight 👇
longshots.app
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Probably going for this for #FPL, most highly owned players covered plus a few cheeky picks.
BB GW 1.
If I decide against BB, DCL will be upgraded to Thiago and I will field a 4.5 MID.
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Football won today.
Spain absolutely dominated the tournament and made Argentina look small in a one-sided final.
Very happy to see Cubarsí win Young Player of the Tournament. Rodri was a surprise choice, but a rightful one, especially after Messi was barely allowed to touch the ball in the final.
Unai Simón didn’t have much shot-stopping to do, but he was always there as a sweeper-keeper when needed, allowing Spain to play with an extremely high defensive line.
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Serious question: Is starting CR7 for Portugal the most obvious case of a coach bending to a superstar's ego in sports history?
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Havertz and Trossard starting means Arteta wants to replicate the City - Chelsea 0-1 game. And he's already halfway there :)
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Arsenal has one of the best defensive units we have seen in a long time. Today's final will be closer than most casuals seems to think.
The post Kylian PSG is a likeable team but I'm cheering for the Gunners.
Under 2.5 goals would be my pick.
#UCL
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It's coming home 🇷🇴👑
The most random running order we've ever seen. No favorite will smile at this.
Finland after Moldova?
Denmark opening?
Greece at 6 and Australia at 8?
Is Romania a contender?
Madness.
#Eurovision
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Finland is trading at 17% to win Eurovision at @Polymarket.
That’s too high. Why?
The song is not a clear televote landslide but doesn’t project as a 250+ jury magnet either.
Early-season Scandinavian entries are consistently overpriced.
Last year we saw similar hype. "ICH KOMME" was trading at single digits but didn't even manage to finish in the top 10.
More importantly, we are still months away. 2 to 3 serious contenders haven’t even been announced yet.
My real probability right now: closer to 5-8%.
If "Liekinheitin" does indeed win its national final on the 28th, Finland may trade above 20% and this will create even more opportunities.
#Polymarket #ESC2026
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Yesterday I made ~$1.2k on @Polymarket with near-zero risk.
I missed most of the Super Bowl and only tuned in during the 4th quarter. Instead of touching the main game markets (personal rule: only bet what you understand or have real alpha on), I scanned side markets. One jumped out immediately: Which artists performed at the halftime show.
One artist, Rauw Alejandro, was priced around ~70%. That made no sense. It’s a binary event. In efficient markets, those should sit near 0% or 100%, not in the middle.
A quick check revealed the source of confusion: a dancer in Bad Bunny’s crew looked like him, with similar tattoos. Using Grok for fast verification and cross-checking Polymarket comments, it became clear he did not perform.
I kept buying “NO” as liquidity came in.
At the same time, I placed “YES” on Karol G and Cardi B. Even though they didn’t sing, they were part of the performance, and featured appearances still settle as YES.
If a yes or no market sits in the middle, assume confusion is priced in. Your job is to remove it.
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It's been the most political & controversial Eurovision ever, but it's still a song contest. And the best song won.
#Eurovision2024
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Do you think Everything Everywhere All at Once will win Best Picture at the Oscars?
13%Yes, have watched it
17%Yes, haven't watch it
39%No, have watched it
30%No, haven't watched it
23 votes • Final results 731
Not a huge fan of the life in Athens but having sun & 20C on a December afternoon is priceless ☀️
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Radical honesty, i.e. saying the exact truth and avoiding even white lies. Have you:
38%Done this with a partner
8%Done this with a friend
16%Would be open to trying
38%Wouldn't try that (why?)
37 votes • Final results 1
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Make sure to watch Better Call Saul if you haven't already. And in case you find it too slow, I almost gave up twice. Just keep going :)
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Our first #ESC2022 Freeroll on @FanTeamOfficial has come to an end.
Out of 3054 unique entries, no one managed to predict all 10/10 qualified songs😮
€7.46 was split among the 67 users who predicted 9/10 💰
You can also join the fun - for free - on Thursday's Semifinal!
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