Devendar

📈Stocks vs. bonds who's right? The Nasdaq hit a record even as 10Y Treasury yields crossed 5.3% Nvidia rose 2.1% Microsoft gained 1.5% My take: investors are betting earnings growth will outrun borrowing costs But if earnings disappoint that bet gets ugly fast Watching Q3 result

📉 Wall Street conversation: 📈 Stock trader: “The S&P is at a record. Buy the dip!” 📉 Bond trader: “The 30Y yield is at a 24-year high. You sure?” My $10K move? Keep $6K in cash, put $4K into healthcare I'd rather wait for earnings to justify these valuations than chase records

🛒 Costco just beat earnings. So why did $COST fall? Costco reported $95.72B revenue vs $94.86B expected and EPS of $6.60 vs $6.53 expected. Reuters +1 Sounds bullish, right? Not quite. Comparable sales, excluding gas and FX, grew 6.7%, but that was below what analysts were expecting. And part of the EPS beat came from a one time tariff refund. Fidelity So my trade? I'd wait. The business looks strong, but the stock reaction tells me expectations were already high. I'd want to see buyers step back in before taking a position. For Indian traders, Mudrex offers COST US stock perpetuals, so you can trade the price movement without owning the actual shares. US perps also allow long/short exposure. Mudrex +1 Good earnings ≠ automatically a good entry.

AI stocks got slapped on Monday. Then bounced Tuesday. So… buy the dip? 👀 If I had to choose one AI stock here, I'd pick NVIDIA but I wouldn't chase the bounce. Monday was ugly: the semiconductor index dropped 5.9%, while Nvidia fell about 3.4% as fears around slower AI development hit the sector. Reuters +1 Then Nvidia bounced about 0.6% Tuesday as investors pushed back on the idea that AI spending is suddenly disappearing. Investor's Business Daily My take: AI demand isn't dead. The market is just asking a much harder question now how much future growth is already priced in? I'd rather buy gradually on weakness than short a bounce in a company sitting at the center of the AI infrastructure story. What would change my mind? AI capex actually slowing + Nvidia's demand outlook weakening. Until then, Monday looked more like a reality check than the end of the AI trade.

“Finance used to close at 4 PM.” Now we're heading toward a world where stocks trade 24/7, equities exist as tokens, Bitcoin sits inside ETFs, and perps let you trade traditional assets like crypto. At some point, the old market hours start looking like a software limitation.

$1,000. SOL or stablecoins? I'd take SOL 🟣 Not because I think it's guaranteed to pump, but because I think the risk/reward is interesting around the September 9 upgrade. My thesis: if Solana keeps growing beyond trading and memecoins especially in DeFi, payments and RWAs the network could have much more demand than it does today. Biggest risk: the upgrade doesn't translate into meaningful adoption, while SOL stays weak around the $100 area. What would prove me wrong? If the upgrade passes and Solana's activity still keeps falling, I'd rather admit the thesis is wrong than keep averaging down. So yeah, I'd take the $1,000 SOL bet. Not a recommendation. Just the trade I'd personally take.

The biggest mistake people make about Solana is …thinking its future depends on the next memecoin season. Memecoins brought a ton of attention to Solana. But look at where it's heading now: → Stablecoin payments → Tokenized assets → Institutional trading → RWAs → Bigger transaction capacity The interesting part isn't whether the next BONK does a 10x. It's whether Solana can become infrastructure for moving financial assets onchain. If that happens, the memecoin era might end up being just the beginning. People are still judging Solana by its past. I think the bigger bet is on what it's becoming.

📱 TradFi Group Chat 2:47 AM BTC: guys I'm back above $81K Wall Street: who let him cook Bitcoin ETF: btw we just got $731M today Retail: WAIT WE'RE BULLISH AGAIN?? Coinbase: also I'm trying to get 24/7 equity perps Robinhood: tokenized stocks btw 👀 The Fed: 🙂 Everyone: WHAT DOES THAT MEAN Honestly, this is the weird part of crypto now. Institutions are buying BTC through ETFs while traditional platforms are slowly bringing 24/7 + onchain markets into finance. Crypto didn't replace TradFi. TradFi is slowly becoming crypto. 😂

HYPE has a pretty interesting September ahead. 👀 ~9.92M HYPE is scheduled to unlock on Sept 6. That's obviously a lot of new supply. But here's my take: I'd worry more about adoption than the unlock. If Hyperliquid keeps growing its users, trading activity and ecosystem, there's a real argument that demand can absorb that extra supply. If growth slows down? Then that 9.92M becomes a much bigger problem. So for me, the real September test isn't just: "Will HYPE dump after the unlock?" It's: "Is Hyperliquid growing faster than HYPE's supply?" That's the number I'd be watching.

Missed BTC's 20%+ move? I'm not chasing it. Honestly, buying after a huge move just because you're scared of missing out is exactly how people end up buying the top. I'd rather wait for a pullback and see whether BTC can hold the new range If it does, I'd start building a position slowly instead of going all in I'm also not automatically rotating into ETH or SOL just because they haven't moved as much. "It's still cheap compared to BTC" isn't really an investment thesis. And if BTC doesn't pull back? That's fine too. Missing part of a move is better than forcing a bad entry.

BTC didn't just pump. A lot of traders got forced into buying. 👀 Bitcoin went from looking pretty dead to ripping higher, and the short squeeze made the move much bigger. Billions in short positions were liquidated as BTC broke higher. When those traders got liquidated, their positions had to be closed which meant more buying pressure. So how much of the rally was new money? My guess: a meaningful part was leverage getting flushed out, not just fresh investors suddenly piling in. That's why I'm not treating one big green move as proof that the bull market is back. I'd want to see sustained spot demand, ETF inflows and open interest rebuilding in a healthier way. The squeeze can start the move. Real demand is what keeps it going.

Missed BTC's 20%+ move? I'm not chasing it. Honestly, buying after a huge move just because you're scared of missing out is exactly how people end up buying the top. I'd rather wait for a pullback and see whether BTC can hold the new range If it does, I'd start building a position slowly instead of going all in I'm also not automatically rotating into ETH or SOL just because they haven't moved as much. "It's still cheap compared to BTC" isn't really an investment thesis. And if BTC doesn't pull back? That's fine too. Missing part of a move is better than forcing a bad entry.

Why is one BTC option ₹200 while another is ₹80? 👀 It’s not random. An option’s premium mainly reflects 3 things: ⏳ TIME More time gives BTC more opportunity to make the expected move. 🎯 STRIKE DISTANCE An option closer to the current BTC price generally has a higher chance of becoming profitable than one farther away. 🌪️ VOLATILITY Bigger expected moves can mean higher option premiums. So when you see two different premiums on CoinDCX, don't just ask: "Which one is cheaper?" Ask: How much time is left? How far is the strike? How much movement is expected? The premium is basically the market putting a price on the opportunity behind that option. Don't compare premiums. Understand them. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro

BTC is at ₹1,00,000. You expect it to move higher. Would you choose a ₹1,00,000 strike or a ₹1,05,000 strike? 🎯 Here's the trade off: Closer strike → generally higher probability + higher premium Farther strike → generally lower probability + potentially higher % payoff That cheaper OTM option might look attractive. But remember: Cheap ≠ better. It requires a bigger move from BTC to reach the strike. And that's where delta can help as a supporting indicator of how sensitive the option is to BTC's movement but it's not a guarantee of probability. So before picking a strike on CoinDCX, don't just look at the premium. Look at: 📍 Current price 🎯 Strike distance 📈 Expected move Pick the strike that matches your thesis not the one that simply looks cheap. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro

An option premium is telling you a story. You just have to know what to look for. 👀 Before buying an option on CoinDCX, ask yourself 3 questions: ⏳ How much time is left? More time = more opportunity for the trade to play out. 🎯 How far is the strike from the current price? Farther strike = a bigger move needed. 🌪️ How much movement is the market expecting? Higher expected volatility can increase the premium. So a ₹50 option isn't automatically a bargain. And a ₹250 option isn't automatically expensive. The difference could be explained by time + strike distance + expected volatility. That's the real point: The premium isn't just what you pay. It's the market's price for the opportunity, time and expected movement behind the option. Open the CoinDCX options chain, pick an option, and tell us: Why is its premium high or low? #LearnKaroCryptoKaro

Why is one BTC option ₹200 while another is only ₹80? 👀 If your first thought is “the ₹80 one is cheaper, so it must be better” that's exactly the trap. An option premium isn't a random number. It's the market putting a price on time + strike position + expected movement. Here's how I think about it: Imagine BTC is trading around ₹1,00,000 and I'm comparing two call options with the same expiry: 🔹 Option A: ₹1,00,000 strike ₹200 premium 🔹 Option B: ₹1,05,000 strike ₹80 premium Why the huge difference? 1️⃣ DISTANCE FROM THE STRIKE 🎯 Option A is closer to the current BTC price. It needs a smaller move from BTC to become meaningfully profitable compared with the ₹1,05,000 strike. Option B needs a bigger move. That extra distance generally means lower probability of reaching the desired level which can be reflected in a lower premium. 2️⃣ TIME ⏳ Now change the expiry. Give both options another few weeks and suddenly there's more time for BTC to make a meaningful move. More time = more opportunity for the option to become valuable. That's why, all else equal, longer-dated options generally carry more time value. 3️⃣ EXPECTED VOLATILITY 🌪️ What if BTC is expected to start making much bigger moves? That can increase option premiums. Why? Because bigger expected movement means a greater chance of the underlying travelling far enough to make the option valuable. So when you look at an option premium, don't just see: ₹200 vs ₹80. Ask: ⏳ How much time is left? 🎯 How far is the strike from the current price? 🌪️ How much movement is the market expecting? That's what the premium is telling you. And this is exactly why I wouldn't choose an option on CoinDCX simply because its premium looks cheap. A ₹80 option isn't automatically a bargain. It may simply be pricing in less time, more distance, or lower expected movement. The better question is: “What am I actually paying ₹80 or ₹200 for?” Open the CoinDCX options chain, pick an option, and try to explain its premium using these three factors: TIME + STRIKE DISTANCE + EXPECTED VOLATILITY. That's when the premium stops looking like a random number and starts telling you a story. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro

I got the direction right. BTC went exactly where I expected. And my options trade still lost money. The problem? I was right about WHERE. I was wrong about WHEN. 🧵 Say BTC is at ₹1,00,000. My thesis: "I think BTC can move to ₹1,05,000." But there's another question hiding inside that thesis: How quickly do I expect it to happen? If I expect the move today or tomorrow, a short dated expiry gives me less time for my thesis to play out. If I expect the move over the next couple of weeks, choosing an expiry that gives the trade more time may make more sense. Because in options, time itself has value. And that's where theta comes in. Think of theta as the time cost of holding an option. As expiry gets closer, an option's time value generally erodes and the decay can become faster as expiration approaches. So imagine two options with the same strike: 🕐 2-day expiry Less time for the move → faster time value decay → your thesis needs to play out quickly. 📅 14-day expiry More time for the move → more room for the thesis to play out → but you're paying for that additional time. This doesn't mean: "Longer expiry = better." That's not the point. The real question is: How fast does my thesis need to happen? Intraday view → you may consider a shorter expiry. Few day view → give the trade enough time. Longer term view → you may need a longer expiry. The biggest mistake is choosing an expiry just because the option looks cheap. A cheap option with no time to work can stay cheap for a very good reason. When trading options on CoinDCX, don't just ask: "Where do I think BTC is going?" Also ask: "When do I think it's going to get there?" Because you can get the direction right and still get the trade wrong because your expiry didn't give your thesis enough time. Right direction + wrong timing = still a losing trade. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro

The actual trader decision This should answer: "So which one should I pick?" Not: ITM is better. Not: OTM gives more returns. Instead: If your expected move is small → closer strike may make more sense. If you expect a strong move → farther OTM may offer more upside, but you're accepting lower probability. If you're somewhere in between → ATM can be the middle ground. Never choose a strike because the option is ₹50 instead of ₹500. Ask what the market needs to do for that ₹50 option to actually work. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro

Actually calculate the decision This is where we make it much more interesting. Say: BTC = ₹1,00,000 Your expected move = ₹5,000 Expiry = 7 days Now ask: Would you choose ₹95K, ₹100K or ₹105K? Then explain that the answer depends on what you believe is realistically achievable, not which option has the lowest price. We can also introduce delta briefly: Delta can be used as a rough probability proxy for finishing ITM, but don't treat it as a guarantee. Then compare the three strikes in a simple table like visual. #LearnKaroCryptoKaro