Tools to project your own results of the Scottish, Welsh, Northern Irish and London Elections 🗳️ Donate: https://xitter.cf/t.co/TNsNtbdfq3
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There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border.
Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.
After adding in this weekend's polls our Nowcast shows a Labour majority for the very first time.
🌹 Lab — 329
🌳 Con — 126
🔶 LD — 68
➡️ Ref — 48
🎗️ SNP — 46
🌼 PC — 8
☘️ SF — 6
🦁 DUP — 4
🌱 GP — 4
⚪ Others — 11
Here are alternative systems, STV could resurrect the Lib Dems, so would chaning to a more proportional version of AMS.
Here are the regional breakdowns for the biggest 3, Plaid Cymru in the West, Labour in south, Reform in the East.
Our projection for the next Senedd election based on the latest Beaufort Research poll for @nation.cymru
🌼 PC — 42
➡️ Ref — 34
🌹 Lab — 12
🌳 Con — 7
🌱 GP — 1
A good showing for @plaidcymru but wipe out for the @WelshLibDems
Why pretend to do a Scottish or Welsh seat projection if you don't include Plaid Cymru or the SNP? All your numbers in Scotland and Wales are meaningless.
I ran it through our system which remembers that Scotland & Wales exist: Labour 49 short.
Westminster Electoral Calculus MRP, with tactical voting:
🌹 LAB: 27%
➡️ REF: 22%
🌳 CON: 19%
🔶 LDM: 9%
🌍 GRN: 8%
🦁 RES: 8%
Polling via @FindoutnowUK
With Seats:
🌹 LAB: 293 <— Short of 3
➡️ REF: 72 <— 217 Short
🌳 CON: 98 <—- 220 Short
🔶 LDM: 67
🌍 GRN: 6
🦁 RES: 1 <—- 325 Short
We have more than one graphic because there is more to elections than just seat winners.
If you ever visited the site you'd see that we have exactly what you're looking for, like the one attached.
You can even watch all the transfers happen.
Our PR sims find Reform doing best under German MMP or STV.
AV isn't as good for them but there are enough Labour leads where combined Con-Ref support is enough for one of them to jump ahead.
We even have a button for adding in the errors from 2022's polling, SF would still be down almost 3% if the same error happens.
Our Monte Carlo model, which sims the election 1000 times around the current polling average, thinks SF has a 0% chance of winning two seats here.
If their polling improves after Garvaghy it could go above 0, but this is not an obvious pick-up opportunity for them.
Fermanagh South Tyrone MP to contest Assembly seat in Belfast ift.tt/D3a6Whl
Here you go:
We have it for every party under whatever vote share across a bunch of different electoral systems and per region:
devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
