Kyushu Ashi [Ichimoku Thread #17 👇🧵]

$BTC Bitcoin This is a 4th perspective of the base case presented already on 3W, 1M and 2M, this time on the weekly. The price in the cloud chops both according to Ichimoku Theory and in practice as you see. So the most likely scenario is the exciting PA in red for at least half a year ahead. Of course this is a very rough drawing, it simply means chop in the cloud, with potentially some fakeouts around it. 72K to 92K is the main range channel but can't write off even low 100s and even that wouldn't be a bull market yet. Unless we see a clear invalidation on the 2M close levels presented in the main forecast, I would ignore all the noise of bullish calls for the next months and stick to the old plan step by step: xitter.cf/DoctorCatX/status/2110… October 2026 to close below $94,181 December 2026 to close below $107,164 February 2027 to close below $108,268 April 2027 to close below $109,554 June 2027 to close below $87,496 I think that it will be very boring time to watch the price but a lot of people on Twitter will keep calling for higher every day so they can boost their followers and earn more money from Discord and Patreon while their TA skills are close to zero. Eventually after 9+ months the bull market will most likely start and they will say "I told you". No need to waste your time listening to them in the meanwhile, in my humble opinion. I don't have Discord and Patreon so in the meanwhile I will keep hard working at McDonald's.

$BTC Bitcoin To be more precise, the current expectations are: October 2026 to close below $94,181 December 2026 to close below $107,164 February 2027 to close below $108,268 April 2027 to close below $109,554 June 2027 to close below $87,496 by Bitstamp prices. This is step by step completing the minimum duration of the bearish Kihon Suchi cycle of the Kyushu Ashi candles which is 9-2 = 7. If any of these is proven wrong, the entire forecast chain afterwards is invalidated. The last such unexpected invalidation occured in the 5 candles cycle in 2019. More educational details you can see here: Kihon Suchi: xitter.cf/DoctorCatX/status/1951… Kyushu Ashi: xitter.cf/DoctorCatX/status/1953…

I attest to this. Many people make that assumption at first. Completely irrelevant.

Always find it funny when the thesis one tries to project is invalidated on the very chart he is trying to make an argument with 3W Kumo was red, Bitcoin didn´t give a shit and rallied Not to mention the 3W Kumo is currently green, not red

I'm superstitious so it really bothers me that the second number starts with 13. @CredibleCrypto this time I need your help

If I'm right and we'll head into the next stage of the bull market soon-ish We'll have one big price event where most things reprice all at once That'll be the sign for most sidelined people that we are indeed in a bull market Which is as usual late but that's just how it goes

$MEME One of my best calls ever. I am still single.

$BTC Bitcoin If the 82K high is taken the market is expected to keep pumping minimum to 89.5K and to top on the weekly no earlier than the 12th of October. The next major weekly cycle low is scheduled between the 9th of November and 13th of December.

$BTC Bitcoin - Update Based on the same logic which on the 1st of March correctly forecasted that April would close above $70,202: May 2027 should close below $87,496. This is based on the assumption that the 2M timeframe has started to build a bearish cycle of Kyushu Ashi candles with a minimum cycle duration 7=9-2 candles. This is in line with my base case scenario which I've already shared roughly: 1+ year of range before the bull market begins. We could consider an invalidation if December 2026 closes above 99.8K (CS gets above the candle high on the monthly) or if we get another bullish KA candle on the 2M chart breaking the current bearish cycle.

Market kind of shrugging off all the panic from last week for now Love to see that, if we full retrace that whole fuckery the bull market is officially on

$BTC Bitcoin The first meaningul pause should not come before 87.9K (the monthly Kijun). But even if it comes it should be just a pause... we have a long way to go till the 12th of October. So far seems a bit too fast of a pump for now as we target 92K-93K. I'm very curious to see how this unfolds.

$XRP Ripple - Update On the $BTC pair: On the 2M timeframe, if February closes between 2040 and 2088 the price should continue to range for around 1-2 more years because of the CS tracing: xitter.cf/DoctorCatX/status/1830… unless the CS tracing is prematurelly interrupted - which is not the default expectation. To the upside it may get interrupted by a bull breakout around November/December 2026 and September/October 2027. But as this is a 2M scale here +- 1 candle time inaccuracy can mean a lot so keep that in mind, these are rather rough estimations. The most important support 2040 is perfectly held on all high timeframes which is very impressive provided that most altcoins are in bear markets both against $BTC and $USD. If 2040 is lost on the monthly, this might be the first hint for a potential bearish breakout and interruption of the CS tracing to the downside. However, in this case the situation needs to be reevaluated because it depends entirely on the time of this event, if it happens at all. I.e. if that happens it would not automatically bearish but it would be a big warning sign whose consequences depend on its timing. On the $USD pair: As already posted at Sunday's close, the weekly chart has flipped bearish and the minimum target is the 2M SSA at $1.392. If that is lost: $0.917 (the high at CS on the 2M) - $1.04 (monthly SSB). Overal, the $USD pair looks progressivelly bad as $BTCUSD does. However, currently the $BTC pair doesn't look bad and it is still holding the most important level. As the chance for $BTC to visit 65K in 2026 is over 70% now, it's important to monitor at what price level $XRPBBTC would be at the time. If it is still holding 2040 satoshi that would be very impressive and would keep $XRPUSD above $1.3.

“Range for a year” Delete this now

$BTC Bitcoin - Update Based on the same logic which on the 1st of March correctly forecasted that April would close above $70,202: May 2027 should close below $87,496. This is based on the assumption that the 2M timeframe has started to build a bearish cycle of Kyushu Ashi candles with a minimum cycle duration 7=9-2 candles. This is in line with my base case scenario which I've already shared roughly: 1+ year of range before the bull market begins. We could consider an invalidation if December 2026 closes above 99.8K (CS gets above the candle high on the monthly) or if we get another bullish KA candle on the 2M chart breaking the current bearish cycle.

Do you think we see any local dips lower than 75-76k before 90k

89.5K is the bare minimum but I can easily see 92K-93K. 89.5K will be the monthly Kijun Sen in October. The price most often wicks to short term resistances which are slighly above the first key resistance, in this case this could be the weekly SSB or 2M Tenkan Sen.