Math & Probability Professor / Finance, Risk Quant/ RWRI / Primers on Probability, AI & ML / If you want to eliminate all risks, you only create one big risk
NYC, Paris
Joined April 2026
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Autumn is here and many have asked about our usual online Primers.
I'm currently swamped with launching a Risk software project and I physically can’t find time for the Primers, but I'm planning two weeks of Primers on Polymodels and AI in late January–early February.
Who's in?
Too big NOT to fail!
🚨 La France est "trop grosse pour être sauvée" d'après Barclays.
→ 3 200 milliards de dette
→ 21% du PIB 🇪🇺
Les mécanismes de sauvetage européens ont été dimensionnés pour des économies de 2 à 12% de la zone euro.
Une intervention à l'échelle française serait d'un ordre de grandeur sans précédent.
Mais ce n'est pas le plus triste dans le déclaration de Barclays.
En 2011, la zone euro était divisée en deux camps :
→ Le "cœur" (Allemagne, France, Pays-Bas, Autriche, Finlande) qui bénéficiait de taux bas et servait de garant aux mécanismes de sauvetage.
→ La "périphérie" (Grèce, Portugal, Irlande, Espagne, Italie) qui subissait la défiance des marchés et des programmes d'austérité imposés de l'extérieur.
En 2026, Barclays la place dans la "périphérie".😞
C'est la fin d'un statut que la France avait tenu depuis la création de la zone euro en 1999.
Perverse AI, Creative Intelligence and the Navier–Stokes Warning (thread)
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Perhaps the greatest danger of Artificial Intelligence does not come from machines becoming genuinely creative or conscious.
See my article on LinkedIn about "Perverse AI", following the extraordinary resolution of Navier-Stokes problem.
linkedin.com/posts/raphael-d…
I'm tired of academics commenting whether AI "understands", is "intelligent", or not. They don't have the slightest management experience, or they would know that everything they say about AI applies identically to people.
Humans can be exactly as stupid as AI!
This quoted post is unavailable.
Pre- or post-Bourbaki, this quote of Feynman is obviously apocryphal. He never said that, and said the exact opposite about math and physics.
All the comments on this quote are made by ignorants who know neither Feynman, nor the topic.
If you thonk that math are useless for real life, this is nice example of Hopf bifurcation.
The equally spaced cars are an unstable equilibrium. The stable one is when part of the circle is jammed.
Thanks @nntaleb, very good point! My father's main conjecture, still unresolved today, is whether M is locally connected. This means that the size of ramifications tends to 0, or else, that there are only a finite number of them of a given size.
This is v. interesting because Adrien Douady, Raphael's father, @DouadyPrimers , proved that the points are topologically connected, counter to Mandelbrot's supposition that there were "islands".
The 14th session of the #Primers, including the new program on #Panesthetic Analysis and #Polymodels is now over. Participants will tell you whether they enjoyed it or not, but as an instructor, it was so much fun!
In our classes, maths are physical! Try it next time!
It’s going well!
USA, Canada, Germany, France, Mexico, France in the classroom.
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North and South America, Europe online!
They arrived just on time!
Participants to the Primers in Paris, you'll get yours.
See you Monday.
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❗️Attention Parisian Primers participants - both in person and via Zoom❗️
We’ve sent you the email with all the practical information about the sessions.
Please check your inbox and contact us ASAP if you haven’t received it.
Safe travels and see you in Paris!
🥐☕️🍷🥖👨🏻🎨🧀
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We're getting closer to the beginning of Primers. Hope all tickets and hotels are booked, umbrellas & sunglasses are packed, and you’re ready to jump into the (pan)esthetic Paris.
Don’t plan anything for Thursday night, we'll have a little dinner in an old Parisian cafe together
Gentle reminder that all the people who wanted to participate in the first ever Polymodels/Panesthetic Analysis Primers, should start finalizing their registrations, travel arrangements etc.
Let us know if you need any assistance or advice.
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I think that's a good summary of #Panesthetic Analysis.
As my friends say about #Polymodels: it never works, except when you need it!
Found this old photo of the old stock exchange - Palais Brongniart - where we will soon meet participants in the Primers.
The subway nearby is still called "Bourse" - stock exchange.
We will also try to arrange the tour around this palace, exclusively for the participants.
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You don't need to be a portfolio manager in a Billion+ financial institution to benefit from #Polymodels and #Panesthetic Analysis.
It's a whole way of thinking uncertainty that you will learn at the #Primers.
Registration link in the bio.
