Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael) header
Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael) profile picture

Fantasy Football Analyst @RotoViz & @LegendaryUpside | Best Ball Exposures Tracker: https://teapaw.org/t.co/ZHGxUZNXSp

New York, NY
Joined March 2017
Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)Photo by Michael Dubner (@Dubner_Michael)
2026 Best Ball Exposures Tracker ✅ Player exposures 📊 ✅ Stacks & Week 📅 correlation ✅ Combinatorial Ownership ✅ Roster constructions 🔢 ✅ Tournament Tracker & Results analysis 🏆 ⬇️ Download ⬇️ docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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Recapping 2026 NFL Best Ball, by the numbers 📊 🏆 167 tournaments 📈 7.67M total entries 💰 $86.7M in entry fees 🤑 $76.1M in total prizes 🥇 6 new millionaires 💸 66 six-figure scores Maxing every tournament: 7,141 entries x $257,199 in total entry fees
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How the best ball ecosystem grew in 2026 📈 🔷16 pre-draft contests, 151 post-draft 🔷36 non-standard formats (Eliminators, Sprints, Cumulative, Weekly Winners, etc) 🔷7 SuperFlex 🔷23 Frenchies Zero overlay, as far as I'm aware. Bad for EV, good for growing the game.
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UD leaving 7 states is a bummer. But $86.7M in entry fees says the appetite for best ball has never been bigger. DK (45% market share) now has a path to become market leader. Those losing UD's lower rake and contest variety now get softer DK lobbies. Still optimistic for 2027.
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My biggest Best Ball mistake this summer: It wasn't a player selection It wasn't a roster construction It was forgetting I registered for a DraftKings draft. I've had to stare at the auto-drafted team in the active draft list all summer.
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"How many best ball teams did you auto-draft this year"?
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🚨 MILESTONE: We've crossed 150 best ball contests for 2026! 🚨 📊 152 contests 🎟️ 7.5M entries 💰 $75.1M total prizes 💎 6 contestants will become best ball millionaires 🤑 66 to take home 6-figures Max-entering all: 6,574 drafts, $244,611 entry fees. Every contest ranked 👇
Happy Best Ball Mania release day! The NFL Best Ball Contest Score & Tournament Tracker can be found here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
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Pre- vs post-draft best ball roster constructions (my exposures): QB: overwhelmingly 3-QB pre-draft vs split post-draft (76% → 54%) TE: 3+ TE is king given the ADP landscape (58% → 55%) RB shallower (6RB 39% → 10%, 4RB 2% → 33%), but still attacking RB early
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How many contests have you max-entered this year?
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Easy to draft Charlie Kolar when it's all site credits
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Slow draft hell starts tomorrow 8/26 on Underdog ⏰ 8/26: clocks speed up to 4 hours. Annoying, but manageable. 🛑The real purgatory is the 1 hour clocks starting 9/2 DraftKings skips the gradual clock decline. 🛑9/6 jumps straight to 1 hour 🛑Then 9/7 drops to 10 minutes
🆘 SLOW DRAFT HELL IS UPON US 🆘 Underdog speeds up slow draft clocks on 8/26, two weeks before 9/9. Based on my historical data: Enter TONIGHT to be 95% sure you avoid faster clocks Last batch 8/6 = 50% to be safe
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Through 1,000+ best ball drafts across Underdog, DraftKings, and Drafters Here's my team-level positional exposures across all formats
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Been ending most of my @DraftersFantasy drafts with 2+ TEs in the last 4 rounds: *AJ Barner *Cade Otton *Pat Freiermuth *Kenyon sadiq *Charlie Kolar *Darnell Washington *Darren Waller
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Eliminator Contest Comparison 🟨 @UnderdogDrafts: head-to-head most weeks, small 3 seat finals ➡️ More variance, but fun H2H sweat 🟥 @DraftersFantasy: compete against the entire field every week (50-75% advance rates), large 125-seat final ➡️ less variance; large finals size
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Most importantly, @DraftersFantasy is the more +EV eliminator contest when you account for their milestone bonuses, effectively lowering the rake. Also use code "DUBNER": 100% first-deposit match up to $100
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The Drafters Main Event is a must-enter Milestone bonuses + this weekend's flash bonus return $205 in value. That takes a 10.7% rake down to 1.6% Code "DUBNER": 100% first-deposit match up to $100.
⚡️NFL Best Ball Main Event Flash Bonus⚡️ Join 5+ Drafts this weekend in the Drafters Main Event and you will receive 1 FREE $15 Drafters Main Event Ticket. Bonus Ticket Will Be Added To Your Account on Monday (August 10th) *Only Entries In The Main Event Count Towards This Promotion. Only Entries Between Aug 7th And Aug 9th Apply. Only 1 Ticket Can Be Earned. Both Fast and Slow Drafts Count Towards This Promotion.
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We're up to 5 Eliminator contests! IMO the most fun alt format
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@DraftersFantasy Survival contest has milestone bonuses, which dramatically improve the contest score — making it the best Eliminator on the board Valing the bonuses at 100% face value, effective rake goes from 10.7% → 4.1% Rewards earned at: 10, 25, 50, 75, 100, 150 drafts
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Top-down structural drafting is DEAD. +EV drafters build bottom-up, not leaning on historical heuristics. Building ranges of outcomes for the @LegendaryUpside SideKick sims means my strategy adapts to new ADP landscapes. My 2026 strategy is drastically different from 2024.
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