Primarily TMT investing. Prefer dumpster fires
Joined June 2021
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Concerning for $NFLX - Netflix TV streaming minutes have now basically been flat in the US for the last 3 years, while YouTube has leapfrogged everyone else
Netflix is now clearly in "take price" mode. Definitely a new leg to the story, question is how long it can last
Interesting anecdote from Bernstein on the state of the Chinese AI accelerator market
IFlytek recently ported their training stack for their iSpark model from NVIDIA A100s to Huawei Ascend 910Bs - required 200 engineers working for 6 months to bring performance up to parity
Total time spent per day on music has actually fallen by 15%+ over the last decade, despite the fact that music revenues have roughly doubled
Wonder how long this divergence can continue
Very bullish chart on $TMUS from Craig Moffett - all of TMobile’s share gains over the last 3 years have come from suburban / rural markets
TMobile is still *significantly* underpenetrated in all of those markets
Good work from Mike Morton at MoffettNathanson on Uber margins
I like $UBER as a business but they’re trying their best to turn me off with all of these BS accounting changes - their “real” contribution margin basically moves independently of their GAAP and non-GAAP take rate!
UberEats reports a 15% “adjusted” non-GAAP take rate, but that obscures the mix shift from driver incentives (contra-revenue) to consumer incentives (S&M)
Accounting for both, Uber’s real take rate is just 11%, or 300 bps lower than $DASH - and it hasn’t improved in 3 years
Bernstein speculates that NVIDIA GPU servers will actually be *exempt* from new tariffs
Their argument: a majority of GPU servers imported to the US come through Mexico, which was excluded from the new tariffs. NVIDIA’s ODMs set up last mile assembly there a few years ago
But even if the loophole is wrong, the bar for “substantial transformation” on servers is not high - CBP precedent suggests if Foxconn buys a GPU from Taiwan and assembles it in Mexico with Mexican-made metal posts, the whole server would count as Mexican cbp.gov/sites/default/files/…
From Bernstein: US alcohol consumption has gone off a cliff since 2021
After another -3% decline in 2024, per-capita consumption is now the lowest it’s been since 1962
The average time it takes to build a power plant in the US has gone from 2 years back in the 2000s to 5 years today - mostly due to bottlenecks in regulatory approval for power interconnection
The problem? Interconnect request queues across the US have gotten DDOSed by a flood of thousands of new solar projects over the last decade
