Linking stressed firm PDs to AnaCredit exposures creates a bank–firm network which can then build a “stressometer”. Random Forests uncover a small set of “tail banks” with higher risk under stress, showing how ML can add to central-bank & supervisory stress-testing toolkits. 5/5

First causal estimate of EU participation cyclicality: a shift-share IV + local projections on EU-LFS microdata (15 countries, 114 regions, 2000–2020). Policy punchline: a stable participation rate can still hide real labour market slack. #MonetaryPolicy #EconTwitter 5/5

Why does aggregate participation look so stable? Offsetting shocks. After a downturn men's participation falls sharply. They dominate cyclical sectors like construction, while women's holds steady, partly via the "added worker effect" 3/5

Why do euro area banks transmit monetary policy differently? Authors find that bond-funded banks adjust lending rates less than money-market-funded banks, especially when they issue more fixed-rate loans. 2/2

Access to external finance for the private sector and a strong institutional framework amplify reform effectiveness. 4/4

The downstream demand channel dominates, so network frictions amplify rather than dampen transmission. Implication: economies with identical average leverage can respond very differently, depending on where along the supply chain frictions are concentrated. 5/5