An optimist who assumes everyone is full of shit or lazy. Smart because he forgets. Fuck everyone against sensible gun reform. 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦👶🏻🐶🍔🍺🏀⚾️📊🤘

East Bay via NY via PSU via NJ
Joined February 2009
Short-term: trend > value > fundamentals Long-term: fundamentals > value > trend Investors need to be aligned with process AND time horizon
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Amen Thompson blocks Wemby for the win!
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The plan: Instead of giving Knicks employees championship rings, use them as a lure to see who needs mandatory cybersecurity training
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Just saw an ad during the World Series from Meta saying AI doomers should be ignored and that they are “betting on people” Ok…
Meta now has fewer employees than it did 5 years ago. With more than 2x the revenue base. $META
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Me… when someone uses CAPE to show the market is overvalued
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Why does his hair look like it’s censored?
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Value investors (who throughout history relied on markets being inefficient) complaining that market structure has made markets... inefficient... is what makes them dinosaurs. Quit complaining and revise your process to take advantage of what is likely even more inefficient than it was historically.
David Einhorn explains why the value investing industry has been defeated, and walks through how it leaves Greenlight as a "dinosaur" “The market structure has changed, and there has been what I consider to be a broken market, or the value investing industry, I think, is defeated, so to speak." "It used to be that most money was invested by these long-only investors, these big mutual funds and stuff like that." "And they had money coming in every day, and they were getting nice fees on all of that money, and they had large research teams, and they would sit around following all of the companies with teams of analysts and they would say this company we think is undervalued by 30% and it might be a growth stock or a value stock or Magnificent Seven or otherwise, but they would say I think this is undervalued by 30% and if I buy it and I hold it I’ll make the S&P plus 30." "Now as we’ve moved to passive they’ve lost their customers and the remaining customers are paying them lower fees and they have reduced their research staffs and they don’t have new money coming in to make new investments in any case." "But the market is now dominated by passives, index funds, which buy what everyone else has already decided things are worth, or algorithms, which are basically trying to figure out what is everybody else doing and how do I front run that, or retail, which is buying things because they think it’s cool or they think it’s going up." "And so most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think it’s worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow. And so the result is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value." "So it leaves us sort of as a dinosaur. We’re one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.”
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Buckle up... It is reported by @PabloTorre today that the huge $8.35B Dodgers TV deal was negotiated directly by Walter (owner of the regional media company, American Media Productions)… to Walter (owner of the Dodgers), reportedly before he acquired the Dodgers and seemingly contingent on him doing so. This let Walter bid ~$700M above the next-highest offer, despite it being reported at the time that he had no secured media deal in hand. Time Warner Cable was the counterparty that agreed to pay AMP $8.35B over 25 years for the rights to distribute SportsNet LA, a deal that backed the whole structure. It was brokered by David Rone, then President of Time Warner Cable Networks. Industry experts questioned the logic of that inflated price for years, it drove the local blackouts, and it became a real risk on Time Warner's books ahead of its eventual sale to Charter Communications. Rone was later hired by... Walter into Guggenheim as a managing partner, a role he still holds today. The deal required such high fees to be charged to local cable that roughly 70% of Dodgers fans were blacked out for years because providers wouldn't pay it. Then in 2015, Walter sold Magic Johnson a controlling stake in an insurance company (EquiTrust), reportedly as repayment for Johnson's help winning the 2012 Dodgers bid... an insurance company that then helped fund the payments to the Dodgers through a loan under the deal Walter negotiated with himself.
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So let me get this straight. Walters' own insurance companies stopped lending to his other businesses once they got subpoenaed back in Feb In just weeks, insurers owned by Amistad, a holdco where Magic is a board member, lent ~$2.3bn to Walter companies/intermediaries (BBG) Amistad isn’t technically a Walter affiliate. But they share his office address, his firm (Guggenheim) manages its insurers’ money, and his brother-in-law runs one of them. Kind of related, right?
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If @chamath says it's money good... it's money good
This SpaceX paper is money good and better than most sovereign debt. Also means that everyone else except IG-grade hypers will price at 10-12% in 2027.
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Way way way too early 2026/27 mood East 1) Celtics 2) Knicks 3) Pistons 4) Pacers 5) Hawks 6) Cavs 7) Heat 8) Raptors 9) Hornets 10) Magic West 1) Thunder 2) Spurs 3) Nuggets 4) Wolves 5) Lakers 6) Rockets 7) Blazers 8) Jazz 9) Clippers 10) Warriors
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Current mood Final regular season mood… East 1) Knicks 2) Pistons 3) Cavs 4) Pacers 5) Celtics 6) Raptors 7) Sixers 8) Magic 9) Hawks 10) Heat West 1) Spurs 2) Thunder 3) Rockets 4) Lakers 5) Nuggets 6) Wolves 7) Blazers 8) Jazz 9) Warriors 10) Mavs
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Early season mood… East 1) Knicks 2) Pistons 3) Sixers 4) Cavs 5) Pacers 6) Raptors 7) Celtics 8) Magic 9) Hawks 10) Heat West 1) Thunder 2) Spurs 3) Rockets 4) Lakers 5) Wolves 6) Nuggets 7) Blazers 8) Jazz 9) Clippers 10) Warriors
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One day, I hope we have politicians who believe in both capitalism and basic human decency.
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The deal that was so bad the league immediately investigated it, was not helped by the coaches decision to DNP him in their first game… Amazing.
Free agent guard Gary Trent Jr. has agreed to a four-year, $64 million deal to stay with the Milwaukee Bucks, Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul and agent Lucas Newton tells ESPN.
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New Highlights of the Day page with detailed box scores and player performances (NBA example) dailyboxstats.com/?view=high…
I got tired of digging through websites to see how players did each day, so I spent 45 minutes and built a box score site. dailyboxstats.com Full daily leaders & full box scores for the NFL, NCAA Football, NBA, MLB, NHL and European soccer. Front page summary… click through pages behind it.
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I own a lot of TIPS
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I own even more TIPS
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Over the past few months I've experimented with AI generated writing, videos, and websites... the only negative feedback I received was about writing (not necessarily the results, but the practice of doing it). Interesting...
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How can you not love this guy? Going at the superstars.
Yaxel Lenderborg on his NBA debut and guarding Luka: "I got to see what the NBA is like, man. Lot of flopping, lot of foul baiting, lot of praying to the ref. Interesting first game for me... Being in there firsthand, just watching all the whining and complaining, I lost all respect. That was awful" Transcript of this soundbite: "Yeah, it was interesting. I got to see what the NBA is like, man. Lot of flopping, lot of foul baiting, lot of praying to the ref. Interesting first game for me, for sure. I had a lot of respect for him (Luka). You know, just watching. I didn't really watch the NBA much, I just watched highlights. Seeing him, you know, kill people all the time. But then being in there firsthand, just watching all the whining and complaining, I lost all respect, man. Like that was awful. Like me getting frustrated, it's not about the foul being called, it's about him complaining the entire game. And then you get the foul call, congratulations bro. And then you talk to me like you did something great, bro? Come on, dog. That's just weak. It kinda threw me off for a little while, cause you know, like I said, I had so much respect for him. Gone man, gone. I was telling him he sucks, he can't score on me. You talking and you can't score on me. I said it the whole game. I said a couple cuss words obviously, you know, that's why I got the technical and all that. But I was letting him know, because he was laughing and talking all this because of that one foul call. His only bucket on me was a banker from half court. Like I know that it's a team sport. You know, he had 28pts on us as a team. Me, I took my matchup personally. Tried not to get caught on the fouls. Tried my best. I was thinking about playing him with my hands behind my back to see if that worked, probably would've still got a foul call." Transcript via: reddit.com/r/nba/comments/1x…
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Tesla may be overvalued by $1T #nevershort
Trailing 12 month earnings and earnings growth of every company with a market cap > $1 Trillion
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We have perpetual futures of ETFs… we’ll have ETFs that own perpetual futures But will we have perpetual futures of ETFs that own perpetual futures?
Do we have ETFs that own perpetual futures that track Presidential approval ratings yet?
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Jake retweeted
Steph leaving would be the best thing that could happen to the NBA, the Warriors, and the end of his career. He has too much left to be playing for what this franchise has become.
Steph Curry and the Warriors front office may no longer be on the same page, per @ThompsonScribe "I think he’s probably tired of the star chasing." (via @KNBR / h/t @PolymarketHoops )
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Let's be clear - Prop 40 says: "The Legislature may amend the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act, by statute passed in each house of the Legislature by rollcall vote entered in the journal, two-thirds of the membership concurring, if the statute is consistent with and furthers the purposes of the 2026 Billionaire Tax Act." Any rational person will assume this to mean that this bill can be amended without public approval to become permanent and significantly expanded. This is awful legislation. It deserves to lose in a landslide.
Replying to @gabriel_zucman
Let’s be clear: this is a highly inappropriate way to model the effect of Prop 40 on taxpayer behavior. For one, it’s a basic violation of rational expectations, a cornerstone of modern economics. In Jaros and @joshrauh world, the billionaires act irrationally: they respond to a policy that does not exist and will never exist. Economics students around the world are taught this is not an appropriate way to model behavior — but apparently in this context (fighting Prop 40) it’s OK.
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