Sports analytics made watchable. Deep dives: https://teapaw.org/t.co/PC1JhwLN1k. Quick explainers on Tiktok and IG: edwithsports
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Let’s use LSU as a case study: they punt on 4th-&-1 deep in their own territory, which is understandable, but then get forced to go on 4th-&-10 down two scores. Going for it earlier isn’t ideal, but it’s way easier.
I like this approach. It’s not either/or best/most deserving. It’s a combination, otherwise we wouldn’t have Tuesday Night Debate y’all.
BYU at #9 is a real head scratcher. Here's our best fit of the committee, at 65% "Most deserving" / 35% "Best". Not perfect, but very highly correlated with the committee. BYU is not close to the field. There are a bunch of teams jumbled together and the Cougars ain't one of them.
Here’s one consideration: the highest salaries go to coaches who DID win before. Jerry Jones is looking for a first-time winner who’s also cheap.
But if you look at 2025 salaries, Mike Vrabel was T-8 at $14m, Mike MacDonald made $9.5m, and both are much more than Schotty.
Jerry Jones on @1053thefan on him not paying top dollar for coaches: “There is zero correlation (in the NFL) between how much you pay a coach or how many coaches you have as to winning. There is no correlation. And that’s a random sample of years and all 32 teams involved. So put that in your hopper and smoke it.”
Don't hold your breath if you think the #DallasCowboys are going to fire Brian Schottenheimer anytime soon:
Since the last few days my algorithm has been about bad takes against going for 2 down 8 or 9, I won’t be surprised if several don’t get this one either.
Absolutely correct. Really it’s not even analytics in the sense of uncovering trends, it’s just getting info sooner.
One frequent CFB argument I hate is claiming a highly ranked team sucks because “they haven’t played anyone”.
First, there are metrics to account for SOS, but more importantly, it could mean we don’t know how they’d do versus stiffer competition, not that they can’t handle it.
The Seahawks need a healthy Sam Darnold to contend again.
Using FTN's charting data, this season, 57% of Darnold's sacks were charted as his own fault, the highest rate in the league.
Why that matters for Seattle’s title chances: edwithsports.substack.com/p/…
Maybe this #TikTok can help explain why going for 2 down 8 is usually the right call:
tiktok.com/t/ZPLy3Tmp2/
A recap of an incredible #WorldSeries with an incredible champion in #WinOurWay , plus how injuries could impact the NFL’s trade deadline, on the latest Injury Territory
youtu.be/xrDj5l2YakI
This is an appreciated take. You don’t have to agree with Campbell’s decision, but it’s not that hard to explain it.
Another guy with high draft stock suffering a major injury. Hate it for him.
NEW: Texas star OT Trevor Goosby will miss the remainder of the 2026 season due to injury, ESPN reports.
on3.com/news/texas-ol-trevor…
A quick sports communication tip, because I’ve heard this mistake a lot lately:
You can’t say, “Team X scored 28 unanswered points before Team Y scored a touchdown.”
If Team Y scored a touchdown, **they answered.**
That’s what “unanswered” means.