Model-driven sports betting NFL TDs 22-15 NBA Full transparency: 34-37 NBA High Odds: 10-23 (NBA Playoffs: 31-28) MLB Props: 13-12 MLB HR: 19-46 ⬇️ Daily picks
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Wemby has jumped the opening tip in all 8 Spurs games this season.
The Spurs won 7 of those 8 tips and scored the first points in 6.
Wemby himself scored first in 3.
League-wide this season, the team that wins the tip scores first 62.6% of the time (123 games).
Carries inside the 5, 2026:
Josh Allen: 10 carries, 8 TDs (80%)
McCaffrey: 12, 7 (58%)
Swift: 19, 9 (47%)
Henry: 16, 7 (44%)
Javonte: 20, 7 (35%)
Walker: 13, 2 (15%)
League average: 40%.
Buffalo's best goal-line back is the quarterback.
Kenneth Walker III: 13 carries inside the 5 this season. 2 TDs.
Is he due? Our backtests say:
Goal-line SHARE carries over week to week (r = 0.37)
Goal-line CONVERSION doesn't (r = 0.02)
Bet the role, not the streak. Walker still gets the ball where TDs happen.
619 touchdowns through 8 weeks of 2026.
80% were scored by a player priced at plus money.
The median TD scorer was +230.
29% were +400 or longer.
Only 9% came from guys at -150 or shorter.
The chalk hits more often. The field still scores most of the TDs.
Win the opening tip, score first 66% of the time.
2,706 NBA games across 2024-25 to 2026-27.
First basket props start at the jump ball 🏀
MNF goal-line math 🧪
- D'Andre Swift has 14 carries inside the 5 this season,
most of anyone in CHI-SEA.
- The other Bears back who gets those (Monangai, 6) is OUT tonight.
- Our model: 58% to score. Market: 44%.
- Swift anytime TD −110.
Tight ends get longshot prices, and they've still found the end zone 19 times in 17 games.
Which TEs are you taking Sunday? 👇
Tight ends have scored 19 touchdowns this season.
18 of them were priced at +200 or longer to score.
Week 1: 16 TE TDs. Every one +220 or longer. Median price: +345.
TNF: Knox +500, LaPorta +240, Kincaid +195.
Longest one: Raridon at +1550.