Member Cashin's FoF - posts and re-posts are not recommendations or advice. Please do your own research.
New York City
Joined March 2011
- Tweets4.5K
- Following1.1K
- Followers881
- Likes0
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
Next time someone tells you this month is usually weak or that month is usually strong, ask them "Why?"
Expect Crickets.
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
There is the New Year holiday and then there is Lunar New Year, a different date.
Most don't know that there is Halloween and also Lunar Halloween. Halloween is when people pretend to be scared and Lunar Halloween is when the overleveraged are scared.
Spiralcalendar dot com, seasonality done correctly.
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
My 1998 Charles Dow paper calculated the average Autumn Panic bottom as falling 50 hours before the new moon.
New moon in 82 hours.
spiralcalendar.com/autumn-pa…
It should read “politicians’ jobs at risk in six years.” Social Security: How much money beneficiaries may lose if Congress does nothing cnbc.com/2026/11/01/social-s…
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
In 1987, Patrick Stewart refused to unpack his suitcase for six straight weeks.
My throat still tightens every time I read why.
Every Hollywood insider told the 47-year-old British stage actor that Star Trek: The Next Generation would be a disaster. Even his closest friend, Ian McKellen, begged him not to throw away his Shakespearean career on a television gamble.
Stewart kept his bags packed by the door, waiting to be fired and sent home to London.
That "six-week failure" lasted 36 years.
Watching him late at night here in Japan, we saw something Hollywood never expected.
In Japan, we call this quiet, unbreakable spirit "Fudoshin," an immovable heart under fire.
Most action heroes scream and fire weapons to look strong.
Captain Picard never needed to raise his voice.
Born into deep poverty in Yorkshire, terrified of a violent home, he left school at age 15 and lost all his hair by 19, convinced his life as an actor was over before it began.
Yet one English teacher, Cecil Dormand, handed that frightened 12-year-old boy a copy of Shakespeare, said "Read it out loud," and secretly paid for his first drama course.
Never forget what happened decades later.
On the morning Queen Elizabeth II knighted him as Sir Patrick Stewart, he invited that same retired schoolteacher to sit beside him at his knighthood luncheon.
No suitcase left unpacked.
No rage on the bridge.
Just a cup of Earl Grey tea, a tug of his uniform, and three quiet words that commanded the galaxy:
"Make it so."
He passed away at 86 surrounded by live music, prayer, tears, and laughter.
And this December, in Avengers: Doomsday, Professor X will grace the screen one final time.
A boy who thought he wouldn't last six weeks in Hollywood gave the world an eternity of nobility.
From Japan, with tears and our deepest salute:
Thank you, Captain. Engage. ✨🖖🇯🇵
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
If, by the way, the same situation that just happened in Brazil had happened but with the parties switched -- if Bolsonaro had won last night's election and then a pro-Bolsonaro judge sent the Federal Police to seize Lula's passport and bar him from leaving the country -- every major western media outlet and liberal NGOs would be screaming about the authoritarian attack on Brazil's elections and the destruction of basic freedoms.
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
Note how they're all telegraphing all of a sudden.
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
Dear Secretary Bessent @SecScottBessent,
On October 14th I wrote to you about Bank of America @BankofAmerica.
You did not answer. 3.6 million Americans did.
I want to tell you what that looked like from where I sit, because I do not think Washington understands it yet. The messages did not come from one side. They came from Republicans and Democrats, from veterans and nurses and small business owners, from people who have not agreed with each other about anything in a decade. They all said a version of the same sentence. We have had enough.
That is what a national security issue looks like when it finally breaks through. It does not pick a party. It belongs to everyone who has a kid, a bank account, or a flag on the porch.
So let me be plain about my concern. I am worried that nothing is going to happen. The fine has been announced. The press cycle is already turning. In a few weeks the number will be forgotten and the bank will be back to business. I have watched this exact sequence play out before, and I am writing to you now, while there is still a window, because once that window closes it does not reopen.
I am also widening this letter, because Treasury does not act alone.
To the Department of Justice @TheJusticeDept and to FBI Director Kash Patel @FBIDirectorKash:
Director Patel, you were not in the chair when this happened, so I want you to hear it from me directly. In 2011 I walked into the FBI with everything I had on HSBC. Not a tip. Boxes. Names, account numbers, transaction records, internal emails. Agents worked that evidence for over a year. I trusted them, and I still believe they wanted to do their jobs.
Then the settlement was announced. $1.9 billion. I called the agents and asked the only question that mattered. When do you raid the building and when are the arrests?
Their answer was four words. Our hands are tied.
I have thought about those four words every day since. Not because the agents failed me. Because somebody above them decided that a bank was too important to treat like a defendant. That decision was made quietly, by people whose names I will never know, and it has been made again every time since. Director Patel, you now have the authority to make a different one.
I remember the words carved into the stone outside the federal building in Philadelphia the day I walked in to report @HSBC: justice is the defense of our liberty. I believed that. I still want to. But a justice system that handcuffs a dealer on the corner and sends a bank a bill is not defending anyone’s liberty. It is choosing whose liberty counts.
To Brian Moynihan, Chief Executive Officer of Bank of America @BankofAmerica:
Mr. Moynihan, your bank just agreed to pay $1.2 billion for failures that regulators called willful. I have a few questions, and the 3.6 million people reading this would like the answers too.
Who was fired?
Not reassigned. Not retired early with a package. Fired, by name, for the conduct the government described.
What has actually changed in your anti money laundering program? Not the budget line. Not the consultant’s slide deck. What is different today about how an alert gets cleared and who is allowed to say stop?
Were there any consequences inside the building at all? Or did this land the way it landed at HSBC bank, as a line item?
And how much is your bonus this year?
I ask because I know what it costs a compliance officer to raise his hand inside a bank like yours. I would like to know what it cost anyone at the top. Do you even care? I am asking sincerely. I would like to be wrong.
Here is what I did about all of this, and why it matters to this letter. After the government declined to help me or any of the whistleblowers I have met since, I built the thing I wished had existed. Tactical Rabbit is a private intelligence agency. We find the truth, we prove it, and we put it in the hands of people who will act on it. I made a decision a long time ago that if the government would not stop the next HSBC, I would.
So to anyone inside a bank reading this who is looking at something they know is wrong: if your bank will not act, and the government will not act, come to me. I will get the truth to the public. That is not a threat. It is a promise I have already kept once.
Mr. Secretary, Director Patel, the Department of Justice, and Mr. Moynihan: four addresses, one question. Will anyone be held accountable?
Not fined. Not suspended. Not asked to attend training. Accountable.
Please end the cycle of too big to jail. I will not stop until there is change, and neither will the millions of Americans standing behind this letter. Answer them.
We need a banker in jail.
Everett A. Stern
HSBC Whistleblower
Founder, Tactical Rabbit
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
Many of you cried reading about Taylor Anderson in Ishinomaki.
Wait until you hear about the other young American we lost that afternoon.
Go thirty miles north along the shattered coast to Rikuzentakata, and say the name the townspeople still whisper with tears in their eyes:
Montgomery "Monty" Dickson.
He was twenty-six years old, from Anchorage, Alaska.
He came to Japan to teach English at sixteen tiny schools nestled between the mountains and the sea.
Monty didn't treat teaching as a paycheck.
On weekends, he taught free English classes to anyone in town who wanted to learn—grandmothers, fishermen, shy seven-year-olds. He carried an old camera around his neck and learned everyone's name.
He told his family back in Alaska: "I want to be a bridge across the Pacific."
Then came the morning of March 11, 2011.
Just hours before the 9.0 earthquake tore the ocean floor apart, Monty sat at his desk and translated a single line from Japanese writer Ryotaro Shiba into English:
"There is nothing as beautiful as dedicating one's life for a cause."
At 2:46 PM, the earth broke.
A 40-foot black tsunami erased the city of Rikuzentakata. Out of 70,000 ancient pine trees along the bay, 69,999 were ripped away.
Monty never made it home to Alaska.
And here is what broke Japan’s heart—and then healed it:
After the water receded, Monty's surviving students sat in freezing gymnasium shelters with no textbooks, no desks, and no lights.
When the national English proficiency exam (Eiken) was held again in that ruined town, teachers expected almost no one to sign up.
Instead, 500 children walked into the exam hall.
THREE TIMES more students took the English test than before the tsunami.
Why?
Because the children of Rikuzentakata refused to let Monty-sensei’s voice die in the dark. Every child who opened an English book was keeping their American teacher alive.
Today, at his alma mater in Anchorage, Alaska, the Montgomery Dickson Center stands as an eternal bridge between our peoples.
Virginia gave us Taylor. Alaska gave us Monty.
Japan will guard their names until the end of time. 🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵
If you want to know why Japan loves America so deeply, go to a quiet elementary school in Ishinomaki and say one name:
Taylor Anderson.
She was twenty-four years old, from Richmond, Virginia.
Since she was a little girl, her dream was to come to Japan and build a bridge between our two countries.
On March 11, 2011, at 2:46 PM, Taylor was standing in a classroom in Ishinomaki teaching English to Japanese children when the 9.0 earthquake shattered the coast.
The ground buckled. Power died. Snow began to fall.
Outside, the tsunami sirens began to wail across the port:
A MONSTER WAVE IS COMING. RUN FOR THE HILLS.
Taylor’s red bicycle was parked right outside the school gate.
She was twenty-four and athletic. If she had gotten on that bike when the bell rang, she could have reached high ground in five minutes.
Did Taylor leave?
NO.
In the freezing schoolyard, Japanese seven-year-olds were crying in terror, waiting for their mothers and fathers.
Taylor refused to abandon her post.
She knelt in the snow at eye level with those trembling children.
She held their small hands, wrapped them in warmth, and smiled so they wouldn't be afraid.
One by one, as frantic parents arrived, Taylor handed each child safely into their mother's arms.
She did not get on her bicycle until EVERY SINGLE CHILD was safe.
Fifteen minutes later, on her way home, the 30-foot black wall of the Pacific Ocean reached her street.
Every student Taylor guarded lived.
Taylor did not.
And here is what shattered Japan’s heart all over again:
When her father, Andy Anderson, flew from Virginia to the ruins of Ishinomaki to bring his little girl home, he didn't blame Japan.
He looked at the surviving children crying in cold shelters, and he made a vow:
“Taylor came here to love these children. Her mission is not finished.”
Her American family took the donations from her funeral and built wooden reading libraries—“Taylor Bunko”—inside the schools of Ishinomaki so her children would always have books, warmth, and a place to dream.
A twenty-four-year-old daughter of Virginia gave her life so Japanese children could grow up.
Tell me another nation on earth with a heart like that.
Thank you, Taylor. You are Japan’s daughter forever. 🇺🇸🤝🇯🇵
JS Trade Desk
Pre-Market Brief — Thursday, 15 October 2026
Market Snapshot: 8:34 AM ET
BOTTOM LINE — INFLATION PRESSURES INTENSIFY AS TECHNOLOGY LEADERSHIP WEAKENS
U.S. equity futures are lower following Wednesday's technology-led selloff, while this morning's economic releases present another challenge for the Federal Reserve.
September producer prices rose substantially more than expected, retail sales exceeded forecasts, manufacturing activity strengthened, and initial unemployment claims remained low.
The combination suggests an economy that continues to expand while inflationary pressures remain elevated. That is an uncomfortable environment for equity valuations, particularly in technology and businesses dependent on inexpensive financing.
Our immediate assessment remains defensive, with elevated volatility risk. We are watching whether the market can establish support following yesterday's decline or whether selling pressure extends into a second session.
PRE-MARKET MARKET SNAPSHOT
InstrumentLatestChangeS&P 500 futures (/ES)7,746.50−0.31%Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQ)29,832.75−1.16%Russell 2000 futures (/RTY)2,745.6+0.02%Dow futures (/YM)52,012+0.30%VIX17.55+4.03%U.S. Dollar Index102.217+0.33%USD/JPY158.143—WTI crude oil$95.01−0.08%Heating oil$4.7931−2.73%
This is a pre-market snapshot. Futures changes are relative to their platform reference settlements. Cash equity and ETF last prices in the watchlists generally reflect Wednesday's close.
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
INSANE 🚨 Assistant US Attorney General for the National Fraud Enforcement Division says fraudsters are stealing so much money every year in America, it’s more than the entire budget of the Departments of Energy, Justice Department and Department of Interior COMBINED
Nobody in America should be paying an income tax
For reference this is roughly $105 billion dollars+ stolen by fraudsters EVERY YEAR
Thematic stocks had a great run with many mega caps masking broader weakness. Since August the rest of the market has done a good job of following the four year cycle retreat in this time period. This is now obvious to everyone. Which makes me think that the we are close to a low.
JS Trade Desk
Tuesday, 13 October 2026 | Pre-Market Brief | 6:45 a.m. ET
Bottom Line: A Market Holding Together, but With Narrow Leadership
U.S. equity futures are modestly lower this morning, with technology again bearing the brunt of selling pressure. The S&P 500 remains close to its recent highs, but underlying market participation is considerably weaker than the index suggests.
Our immediate concern is the combination of deteriorating breadth, semiconductor weakness and increasing geopolitical uncertainty. Nevertheless, the SPX continues to trade near an important technical support cluster, while aggregate options positioning remains potentially stabilizing.
Our opening bias is neutral to cautiously defensive. We would favor confirmation over anticipation, particularly while the S&P 500 remains between approximately 7,790 and 7,825.
JS Trade Desk
The Bottom Line: Equities Hold Near Their Highs, but the Underlying Risk Environment Is Becoming More Complicated
U.S. equity futures are little changed this morning despite rising energy prices, a stronger dollar, elevated Treasury yields and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of its recent highs, but the market's apparent stability masks an increasingly challenging environment for investors.
Our principal concern is the growing divergence between index-level performance and the underlying market. The combination of persistent inflation, rising financing costs and narrow leadership could leave equities vulnerable if the technology sector begins to weaken.
For now, we favor a neutral-to-cautious tactical stance, with particular attention to the S&P 500's ability to maintain support near 7,790.
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
Missed our Trading Masterclass this week? Learn to build a trading playbook with Patrick and @Trader_Maciej
01:40 Understanding GEX DEX volume and open interest
02:27 Positive vs negative gamma explained
10:47 DEX and dealer hedging activity
16:40 Gamma exposure and key market zones
19:24 Gamma regimes and volatility dynamics
22:48 Combining GEX and DEX for market analysis
30:56 Options chain analysis and key levels
37:02 Simplifying market data for better decisions
42:01 Understanding volume and open interest
51:26 Four key metrics for market structure
56:13 Building a structured trading process
58:10 End-of-day vs intraday options data
1:02:29 Using intraday levels for trade confirmation
1:03:39 The Backtesting Tool
1:12:08 Raw data vs shifting intraday indicators
1:16:04 Identifying gamma clusters and blind spots
1:21:01 Swing trading levels
1:23:38 Building trading plans A B and C
1:33:04 Four essential factors for trade execution
1:41:50 Risk management for long-term profitability
1:51:24 Developing a consistent trading playbook
1:55:39 Kiss and go trading setup explained
2:00:34 Time price location and market conditions
2:03:29 Call resistance and first-touch reactions
2:10:50 MenthorQ Pro membership and bonus recordings
JS Trade Desk
Pre-Market Brief | Friday, 9 October 2026
Market snapshot: approximately 8:45 AM ET
Bottom Line
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a higher opening following Thursday's technology-led decline, but the overnight rally has lost some momentum. Nasdaq futures continue to outperform, while rising Treasury yields and a firm U.S. dollar remain important obstacles to a sustained advance.
Our initial outlook is cautiously constructive, with confirmation required from technology leadership and the bond market. The 10:00 AM Consumer Sentiment report, particularly its inflation-expectations components, could determine whether the early recovery develops into a trend or fades.
Overnight Markets
MarketLatest indicationChangeS&P 500 futures (/ES)7,838.00+0.28%Nasdaq 100 futures (/NQ)31,159.75+0.61%Russell 2000 futures (/RTY)2,814.9+0.19%Dow futures (/YM)51,516+0.04%VIX15.22−1.23%U.S. Dollar Index102.28+0.14%WTI crude$91.19−0.33%Brent crude$103.31−0.93%
Jonathan Stephens retweeted
🎄 Americans, in Japan, Christmas dinner is Kentucky Fried Chicken. And you have to reserve it.
It started in 1974 with KFC Japan's first Christmas campaign. One story says foreigners in Tokyo kept complaining they couldn't find a turkey anywhere, and fried chicken was the closest American thing around. It worked a little too well.
Now reservations open in early November. The Colonel statues outside the stores get dressed up as Santa. Christmas Eve is the busiest day of the year, with more than ten times the normal number of customers, and something like 3.6 million households order.
So on December 24th, Japanese families sit down with a bucket from Kentucky and a strawberry cake, and genuinely feel like they're doing an American Christmas.
I've never had the heart to tell them what you actually eat.
Be honest. Has anyone in America ever done this?
