Lots of politics, plenty of travel, public transport geek & delving into the Eurovision Song Contest. My views are my own. Retweets not always endorsements.
Bingley, England
Joined January 2018
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Nick Stone retweeted
Appointing Miller as CoS is as clear a statement from Trump as it gets. It’s going to be war with the Democratic Congress. Buckle up.
Nick Stone retweeted
“Is this it?”
The very sharp share falls in the US were concentrated in data centre buildout adjacent stocks and Elon Musk adjacent stocks.
Falls in Asia also a bit wider. In Europe more widespread but much shallower falls.
Clearly given the astonishing investment cycle and build up in valuations, a reckoning was always coming. S&P futures are up from here though. For now it feels like a corrective reappraisal brought on by the less supportive political environment in the US. It could be the trigger, the pin in the bubble. Fridays can be perilous especially towards the end of trading.
For now there is some degree of discernment rather than outright panic.
Nick Stone retweeted
A midterms loss doesn't always indicate a party is about to lose the presidency but when it's this bad, it probably does. Especially given the mess the Republicans are in.
New post:
After their midterms disaster the Republicans are in deep trouble - tied to a decrepit, vengeful narcissist with no loyalty to the party. It could rip them apart.
Meanwhile, the Dems have an incredible opportunity. Can they hold it together?
samf.substack.com/p/the-comi…
Nick Stone retweeted
Once every ten days, a bright canary-yellow bullet train glides into Tokyo Station at full speed, yet not a single passenger is allowed to step on board.
Its windows are mostly covered from the inside, its timetable is never published for the public, and there are no ticketed seats in any of its seven cars.
In Japan, every child and every commuter knows this train by two English words: Doctor Yellow.
Since the Tokaido Shinkansen began running between Tokyo and Osaka in October 1964, Japanese bullet trains have carried more than seven billion passengers at speeds up to one hundred and eighty-five miles per hour with zero passenger fatalities from derailments or collisions.
Critics sometimes assume that kind of sixty-year safety record is a miracle of luck.
It is not luck; it is what happens when a nation builds a high-speed hospital train whose only patient is the steel track itself.
Why does Japan run a seven-car bullet train painted bright yellow with zero paying customers on board?
In the early days of high-speed rail, engineers realized that checking hundreds of miles of track on foot at night with hand gauges was too slow, and that tracks behave differently when a three-hundred-ton train slams over them at one hundred and sixty-eight miles per hour.
So Japanese railway engineers took a seven-car Class 923 Shinkansen trainset and packed every car from nose to tail with laser-optical sensors, gyroscopes, accelerometers, and high-speed cameras.
Running in the middle of the regular passenger schedule at a full one hundred and sixty-eight miles per hour, Doctor Yellow fires laser beams onto the left and right rails to measure track width, vertical dip, and curvature alignment down to one-tenth of a millimeter, about the thickness of a single human hair.
At the same time, two special observation domes built into the roof and laser pantographs check the overhead high-voltage copper wire for microscopic wear before a single spark can cause a power outage.
The instant Doctor Yellow detects a rail that has shifted by even a fraction of an inch, it beams the exact GPS coordinates to maintenance crews waiting along the line so they can fix the spot that very night after the last passenger train goes to sleep.
Because its schedule is kept secret so crowds do not pack the platforms, Japanese commuters treat spotting Doctor Yellow by chance as a genuine good-luck charm that brings happiness for the rest of the week.
Safety is never an accident when engineers check their work down to the width of a hair.
(Note: Every photograph-style illustration on my feed is created by AI.)
🤖 Made with AI
Nick Stone retweeted
This helps explain my point about this election not being just about gas prices.
Voters who saw the economy as the main issue split fairly evenly. Those who put democracy first overwhelmingly voted Democrat.
New post:
After their midterms disaster the Republicans are in deep trouble - tied to a decrepit, vengeful narcissist with no loyalty to the party. It could rip them apart.
Meanwhile, the Dems have an incredible opportunity. Can they hold it together?
samf.substack.com/p/the-comi…
Nick Stone retweeted
Masterful @josh_wingrove midterms wrap as Vance, DeSantis, Romney turn on Trump
“The Republican Party’s generational collapse in this week’s midterm elections ushered in a wave of finger-pointing largely aimed at the Oval Office”
Free to read: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Nick Stone retweeted
Been thinking about this for 12 hours and my main takeaway is that Vance is just far too terminally online. You're the sitting vice president. You don't get credit for reply-guying your own administration
Unless Vance is going to resign and start a breakaway MAGA faction, stuff like this just reinforces his reputation for insincerity. It'll get a pat on the head from Don Jr. and Tucker but I can't imagine it plays well more broadly
Also, notice what he doesn't mention. Tariffs. Corruption. AI/data centers. Exit polls said all of these were big issues for voters. Vance doesn't even nod to them. Even immigration enforcement gets only a straw-man reference to amnesty
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Nick Stone retweeted
BREAKING: CNN reports the House could vote to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as soon as next week.
Some GOP lawmakers and allies are privately blaming him for the midterm losses and saying he pushed Trump into the Iran war.
Who supports this?
Nick Stone retweeted
A piece from me (with assistance from amazing @SkyNews data team) on the extraordinary midterm results last night - written in the morning before I finally got to bed!
A blue wave breaks across middle America news.sky.com/share/13607783
Nick Stone retweeted
Just waking up in DC and heading to the office for another day.
What a night… truly it was a referendum on Trump's leadership and his judgement. It was the blue tsunami the polls cautiously pointed to.
But it is as much a red anchor too, or perhaps an orange one. This is Trump's defeat. It's on him.
He could have taken his historic win just two years ago and set a path as a disciplined conservative. He could have been a Republican with coherent conservative fiscal policies.
Instead, on every issue - from the economy to the border to foreign policy - his style was to ramp it up to the extremes and into overdrive.
It's been two years of incoherence, a complete lack of discipline, and absolutely no empathy for what the people of America have been feeling.
It has cost the Republican Party so much. For over a decade, party obedience to one man has been unwavering.
They will surely have come to regret it now.
Nick Stone retweeted
Vance posting as if he’s an online pundit or commentator and not the vice-president in the administration that launched this war and then defended this war.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Nick Stone retweeted
Democrats’ dramatically increased power in state level governments in most of the crucial swing states is an important sleeper story from this week - among other things it greatly reduces chances electoral process gets contested in 2028 in these states.
Nick Stone retweeted
8 years ago the Democrats controlled only 16 of the country’s 50 governorships. After these midterms, 75% of all Americans will have a Democratic governor. A massive turnaround with potentially important consequences for abortion rights, redistricting for Congress and ICE's work
Nick Stone retweeted
The great decoupling from the great chameleon has begun. Trump’s lameduck status already well established.
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
Nick Stone retweeted
Some thoughts on Trump's shellacking
comment.press/shellacking
