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Finding Systematic Edges In Markets. Posts are Ideas & opinions only. Not investment advice.

Joined April 2026
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BREAKING from Toyama Japan: Impossible Metals just proved the deep-sea mining equivalent of a soft landing. Two weeks ago their Eureka robot completed a full mission in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone at ~5,000 meters: descended, hovered above the seafloor (no tracks, no dredging), used AI + robotic arms to selectively pick nodules, and returned them to the surface the potato-sized rocks that hold nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese. If they can scale this, it’s one of the highest-leverage environmental and supply-chain advances in deep sea mining tech we’ve seen in years. Innovation like this is exactly what the industry needs. Huge respect to the Impossible Metals team for getting a working system to the real CCZ seafloor and back. Check out the attached short video to see how it works! #DeepSeaMining #CriticalMineralsHub #UnderwaterMinerals #Innovation #mineralimperative @ImpossMetals (Note: The conference currently underway in Japan is the 54th Underwater Minerals Conference in Toyama, Nov 8–13, 2026.) How the Eureka Collection System Selectively Collects Polymetallic Nodul... youtu.be/RMt4fu0nGe0?si=ePKI… via @YouTube
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World-first commercial modelling published in @JMSE_MDPI shows that even at commercial scale, the seafloor plume remains highly localized within the direct production area. Over 435 days of modelled operations, the collector travels 12,624 kilometres, roughly three coast-to-coast journeys across the U.S. Yet 86.7% of mobilized sediment settles within 10 metres of the tracks, with the plume dissipating completely within 2–5 days of operations ending. Even at its maximum extent, the plume occupies just 0.029% of our initial production area's water volume. mdpi.com/2077-1312/14/21/208… #deepseamining
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I wanted to let you know that in the past days NOAA has written to us with an update. It now expects to decide on certification of the TMC USA-A consolidated application by mid-December 2026, instead of the end of October. Importantly, the letter does not identify any issue or deficiency with our application. The regulator is following the statute step by step. That matters. Our path runs through a law that has been on the books since 1980 and a regulator that is applying it methodically. That is what makes a permit last. Metal independence isn't a partisan issue. It's about whether the West secures the critical minerals it needs or stays dependent on China. We appreciate a thorough review, and we're engaged with NOAA at every step. Also I'm excited to be in Japan this week for the Underwater Minerals Conference, where I'll be attending for the first time to watch $TMC's enviro team showcasing findings shaping this industry's future. With world-first commercial-scale plume modelling published yesterday and almost a dozen presentations drawing on our data, it's shaping up to be quite a week. #deepseamining
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The nodule collection industry builds on more than 50 years of innovation in other offshore industries, drawing on proven technologies and processes widely used today. Among them are riser systems like the one we will use, which have transported materials vertically over several kilometres for decades. $TMC #deepseamining
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This is how we gently collect these remarkable rocks
The nodule collection industry builds on more than 50 years of innovation in other offshore industries, drawing on many proven technologies and processes widely used today. In our latest video, $TMC Chief Offshore Innovation and Technology Officer Rutger Bosland explains how the collector, riser, and production vessel work together to gently lift nodules from seafloor to surface. #deepseamining
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Many $TMC investors have questions about USG funding for the Brownsville plant, the USA-A certification and the USA-B lawsuit. Some speculate if these issues can explain the falling stock price. I personally believe the decline is not based on anything fundamental, and we have seen periods like this over the years where negativity can feed on itself. While I don't have tangible news to share just yet, I can offer some color on why I remain very confident. USG funding for the Brownsville plant: TMC USA, together with our partner Mariana Minerals, are committed to building a domestic nodule processing and refining facility in the United States, but with one caveat. It has to be in the best interests of our shareholders. The PFS/FS studies for staged construction are well under way, with a talented and motivated team working hard on the Brownsville project. But at the end of the day, the capital requirement is substantial and USG support is a prerequisite. Engagements with multiple U.S. agencies continue. The process is taking longer than we expected, but we aren't the only priority for these Government agencies, and it's evident that these agencies remain fully committed to resolving America's critical minerals shortages, and seafloor nodules remain a vital part of that solution. As CEO (and a substantial shareholder), my number one fiduciary duty is to the shareholders, and it is my job to minimize dilution as we build what could become a new American mining major. Access to capital matters, but so do deal terms. While these USG engagements are in progress, we do not intend to pursue other capital markets transactions. Our cash position remains robust. Japan remains open to us: As I made clear at our last earnings call, the capital-light option of sending nodules to Japan for processing on a tolling basis remains available to us. Our working relationship with PAMCO remains excellent, and this option provides us with maximum flexibility as we work towards first production. USA-A certification: Many of you expected certification in June based on the 100-day certification process envisioned in the DSHMRA statute. What we need to appreciate is that our consolidated application is the first of its kind under the new rules just adopted by NOAA in January this year. Getting the details right matters, even when it takes time. We remain in regular communication with NOAA and remain very optimistic about continued progress toward certification. USA-B litigation: Most mining permits in the United States are challenged by environmental NGOs; that's simply part of doing business here. We anticipated legal challenges and are prepared. In our view, the lawsuit against NOAA mischaracterizes the process. NOAA has not “greenlit” exploration—it certified our application to advance to further review. The process was thorough. Public comment has taken place, and environmental review is underway. A complaint is not a court ruling, and this case does not impact the USA-A application. Your voice matters, too. Public comments on the USA-A consolidated application are open through October 19, with a virtual hearing today. I encourage you to read the materials and participate via the link in the comments. My confidence remains strong. I’m invested alongside you—and focused on disciplined funding and delivering a critical minerals project at scale. #deepseamining
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TMC Announces Appointment of Liam Mallon, Former President of ExxonMobil Upstream, to its Board of Directors. Read the press release: investors.metals.co/news-rel… #deepseamining
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Thanks to the @NYTimes for inviting me to speak at Climate Forward yesterday. I’ve always believed we need to hold our beliefs lightly and remain open to new evidence as it emerges. The evidence increasingly supports polymetallic nodules as the best way to meet growing demand for the critical metals that power our energy, technology and industrial systems. The future is metallic. nytimes.com/2026/09/23/clima… $TMC
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$TMC 3 Clips from the Water Tower Research interview with Craig Shesky, CFO @themetalsco
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$TMC Geard Barron New York Times interview nytimes.com/2026/09/23/clima…
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$TMC saw 75% more options volume today than normal, trading a total of 39,743 contracts of which 97% were calls.
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Link below to @RKEquityRocks summary of @themetalsco earnings call yesterday. Commentary this morning from two sell-side analysts: Alliance Global Partners “We are reiterating our Buy rating and $12.25 price target. Our valuation remains based on a NAV analysis of the company's NORI-D license area utilizing a 12% discount rate and 0.6x NAV multiple. Given the increasing urgency related to onshoring the domestic critical materials supply chain in the U.S. as evidenced by the aforementioned expedited permitting process, we believe our mid-2028 production estimate remains achievable.” HC Wainwright “We reiterate our Buy rating on TMC and our PT of $11.75. Our valuation for TMC remains driven by a DCF valuation for the firm. We continue to utilize a 12.0% discount rate on the company that we believe fairly accounts for governmental support and TMC's permitting pathway. We also maintain our valuation for the remaining NORI area and TOML blocks in a DCF based on the IA, while still assuming a start date of 2037. We ultimately value the NORI-D Project at $3.42B, before adding $1.37B for the rest of the resource area. We also incorporate TMC's most recent cash balance of $98.7M into our model. The firm still has no debt. We then apply an unchanged 1.25x NAV multiple that yields a total value of $6.10B, or $11.79 per share, which rounds to our PT of $11.75 per share.” $TMC Not advice. DYOR 👇
$TMC Q2 was more constructive than the headline numbers suggest. USA-A certification is now expected in October, pushing a Q1’27 permit off the table. But importantly, management still sees no impact to the Q4’27 commissioning schedule. At this stage, the distinction between a permitting delay and a project delay matters. Offshore execution also continues to advance. Allseas has completed basic engineering on key long-lead systems, procurement is beginning and fabrication is expected to start in Q4. The capital structure is increasingly worth watching. Underlying Q2 operating cash burn was about $11m excluding a timing item, much of the current Allseas liability is deferred until production, and Allseas is expected to fund a significant portion of pre-production development. Onshore, Brownsville is being developed with much greater scale in mind, while near-term feasibility spending remains measured and tied to the work required to unlock potential U.S. government support. There are still important milestones ahead, particularly permitting and government funding. But the story is becoming less about whether @themetalsco can assemble the pieces, and more about how efficiently those pieces can be brought into production.
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Replying to @ExperimentalPar
People underestimate what this initiative will do for the mining industry even if $TMC didn’t get any actual deals or financing. Financing very well could be tied into permit approval end of Q1 2027; however, developing the mining ecosystem for permitting innovation and cleaner harvesting TMC’s slice of the minerals pie will gradually become more influential/respected if you believe in the thesis. Growth in mining education/studies will make it CLEAR how efficient deep sea mining is and the value generated in a more qualified and efficient mining system in general will transition from maximum efficiency in on land mining to maximum efficiency on the sea floor! People underestimate TMC as an AI company as well…autonomous collector vehicles will play a large role in which company dominates the sea floor in the US. I believe the true forcing function for DSM financing within this administration is either significant advancements in Chinese DSM harvesting or slowness to get on land mines up and going. Either way I’m seeing lots of new urgency in the sector and with urgency follows sentiment/price action. Positive or negative I’m ready for some huge volatility in this name over the next 6-24 months leading up to commercial production. NFA $TMC WINS
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$TMC Trump mentions DSM DSM
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Did someone just say "deep sea nodules"?? $TMC The Metals Company @themetalsco
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Quant retweeted
TRUMP MINING EVENT UPDATE ATTENDEES PER BLOOMBERG: MP Materials — $MP USA Rare Earth — $USAR Energy Fuels — $UUUU United States Antimony — $UAMY The Metals Company — $TMC Rio Tinto Group — $RIO BHP Group — $BHP Freeport McMoRan — $FCX Sunrise Energy Metals — $SRL.ax Per Bloomberg, some companies are still determining whether they will attend in person and if so, which executives to send, according to the people familiar. Trump is set to be joined by leaders of his National Energy Dominance Council, including Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, executive director Jarrod Agen, as well as White House adviser David Copley. The event is designed to showcase efforts to help spur critical minerals development and processing, with plans to unveil a handful of a deals and memoranda of understanding, according to people familiar with the summit, who requested anonymity to provide details ahead of a formal announcement. The event has been in the works for weeks, though there’s been a rush to pull together final details in recent days, with a range of US government agencies tapped to participate, some of the people said. Specifics on potential deals were not immediately available Thursday. Ahead of the session, White House officials asked government agencies to detail recently closed deals and MOUs that would help demonstrate momentum on the president’s critical minerals agenda, some of the people said. A White House official said the administration is putting together a historic meeting of mining industry officials as the president advances measures to support critical mineral development.  Source: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
TRUMP EXPECTED TO ATTEND A ROUNDTABLE OF MINING EXECUTIVES ON FRIDAY AT U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT - SOURCES
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$TMC Congress just revealed confirmation of various deals between the USGOV and critical minerals companies. Nobody cares about the request they're making, top lawyers are involved, what's most important is, that TMC is on the list!!! 😉🧑🏻‍🚀 scribd.com/document/10684514… @themetalsco #DSM #Criticalminerals #deepseamining #copper #REE #metalsprocessing #TMC #Nickel #cobalt #manganese
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Writing in Just Security, legal scholars argue that while Japan is a party to UNCLOS, its recent cooperation agreement with the U.S. on deep-sea mining “offers an important path for Japanese corporations to pursue deep-sea mining by partnering with a country that is not a party to the treaty.” justsecurity.org/141654/cont… #deepseamining $TMC
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In a recent speech to the U.S. Naval War College published in @IntLawStudies, former ISA Secretary-General Michael Lodge traces the history of deep seabed mining and argues that U.S. action under its longstanding seabed mining framework is not an abandonment of international law, but a rational, pragmatic, and lawful response to the ISA’s failure to deliver a workable path to responsible commercial development. #deepseamining
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