FAST Graphs

Is Visa trading at a fair valuation? Chuck Carnevale examines Visa’s earnings and valuation using FAST Graphs. $V #Visa #StockAnalysis #FASTGraphs

Is Walmart’s stock price supported by its earnings? Chuck Carnevale examines Walmart’s valuation using FAST Graphs. $WMT #Walmart #FASTGraphs

What Is a Stock Really Worth? | Fair Value Explained #FASTGraphs #ValueInvesting #FairValue #StockValuation #Investing youtu.be/f9XfBx-TrRU?si=YuAK…

$NVR went bankrupt in 1992, but it's up 800% since 2006, and you've probably never heard of it. EPS crashed 81% from the 2006 peak to the 2008 low. Then grew 1400% from 2011 to 2024. They don't hold earnings calls, don't give guidance, and only six analysts cover the stock. VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 18x Normal P/E: 17x Fair Value P/E: 15x EPS yield: 5.54% FG Score: 66 (Predictability 79, Financial Strength 77, Growth 46) Dividend: none Over 20 years, NVR compounded at 13% a year vs 10% for the S&P 500. Over the last year, it's down 11% vs. +15% for the S&P 500. THE BUSINESS: NVR is the fourth-largest homebuilder in the country by closings, selling under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes names in 37 metro areas across 16 states. What makes it different is what it refuses to own: land. Most builders buy raw land, develop it, and carry it on the balance sheet for years before building a house. NVR takes a different approach. They sign option agreements with developers for finished lots, put down a deposit that typically runs up to 10% of the lot price, and buy each lot one at a time after they've sold a home to be built on it. If a community stops working, they walk away, and the deposit is the entire loss. At the end of September, they controlled about 185,300 lots with $917 million of deposits, and wrote off $24.8 million of them in the third quarter, which is the model doing exactly what it was designed to do. Mitigate risk. NVR builds to order from a model home instead of building spec inventory, makes the wall panels and roof trusses in their own plants, and provides the mortgage for 86% of its buyers. Their model was written in bankruptcy court. In the late 1980s NVR was a land developer running on borrowed money, with a savings and loan attached. It lost $260.5 million in 1990 and filed Chapter 11 in April 1992. The company that came out in 1993, with bondholders owning 91% of it, has reported a profit in every year on the FAST Graph, including 2008, 2009 and 2010, when D.R. Horton and Lennar each lost money three years in a row. THE FUNDAMENTALS (FY 2025): • Revenue: $10.10B • Net income: $1.34B • Operating margin: 14.32% • Return on equity: 34.29% • Return on invested capital: 22.84% • LT debt/capital: 21.41% • Operating cash flow: $1.12B • Investing cash flow: -$71M • Financing cash flow: -$1.76B Nearly every dollar of cash flow goes to buybacks. Since 2006, net income is up 128%, but EPS is up 396% because the diluted share count went from 6.67 million to about 3.1 million. EPS HISTORY: 2006: $88.05 2008: $17.04 2011: $23.01 2016: $103.61 2020: $230.11 2024: $506.69 2025: $436.55 2026E: $337.72 THE CATCH: Housing is in its worst stretch in over a decade. Builder confidence is 29, the lowest since 2012; the 30-year mortgage is above 7%, and 43% of builders are cutting prices. NVR's Q3 orders were down 7%, cancellations were up to 21%, gross margin dropped to 18.3% from 21.0% and Analysts have FY 2026 EPS down 23%. The stock currently trades at a blended P/E of 18.06x, which is above the 17.64x Normal P/E. A cyclical's P/E looks lowest at the top (about 8x in 2006) and highest at the bottom (20x+ in 2011), so 18x on trough-year earnings could indicate the stock is undervalued but investors buying today are betting on a turnaround in housing which is hard to time. Is $NVR on your watchlist or are you putting it in the "too-hard" pile?

Most investors have never heard of $AMT but they depend on their towers every day. Here’s our deep dive into American Tower VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/AFFO: 16.81x Normal P/AFFO: 22.20x 24% below its own historical multiple AFFO yield: 5.95% Dividend yield: 3.80% Market cap: $86.20B S&P credit rating: BBB+ Note: FAST Graphs values REITs on Adjusted Funds From Operations, not GAAP earnings. A tower depreciates on paper for decades while collecting the same rent, so reported earnings understate what the asset produces. Last quarter GAAP EPS was $1.64. AFFO per share was $2.87. Value this on earnings and it looks expensive. Value it on the cash the towers generate and it is trading at a discount to its own historical multiple. THE BUSINESS: American Tower owns communications towers across the United States and internationally, plus the CoreSite data center business. Carriers pay rent to hang antennas on the structure, under multi-year contracts with annual escalators built in. The second and third tenant on an existing tower cost almost nothing to add, which is where the margin comes from. AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile are the anchor tenants in the US. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $10.71B to $10.64B Operating income: $3.11B to $5.04B Operating margin: 29.01% to 47.36% Operating cash flow: $3.70B to $5.46B Return on invested capital: 5.39% to 9.32% LT debt to capital: 84.32% Revenue was flat for three years, partly from selling the India business. Operating income rose 62% anyway and operating margin expanded 18 points. The company shed its lowest-margin assets and got more profitable on the same top line. AFFO HISTORY: 2013: $3.43 2017: $6.72 2021: $9.65 2025: $10.76 2028 estimate: $12.37 Dividend: $1.10 in 2013 to $6.72 in 2025, with $7.97 estimated by 2028. The quarterly payout was just raised 5.3%. AFFO nearly tripled from 2013 to 2021, then stalled. Analysts model 3.35%, 4.36% and 6.59% growth through 2028. On the Performance tab since 2011, AFFO per share is up 312.72% and the price is up 208.51%. AFFO growth outran the price meaning the multiple compressed. Annualized returns: 20 years, 9.91% vs 9.59% for the S&P 500. Five years, -5.00% vs 11.85%. THE CATCH: Growth stalled after 2021. Sprint's merger into T-Mobile and then DISH's pullback meant tenants coming off towers. Rates rose, and a company with LT debt to capital of 84.32% feels every basis point. Enterprise value is $136B against an $86.20B market cap, roughly $50B of net debt. The 22.20x normal multiple was earned during a decade of double-digit AFFO growth. A business growing 3% to 6% may not earn it back. Management raised full-year guidance for the third time on Tuesday and called 2026 the trough year for AFFO growth, with acceleration expected in 2027. The Forecasting tab shows what different multiples produce on the 2028 AFFO estimate of $12.37. At the 5-year normal of 21.86x, the price would be $270.35, a 22.25% annualized return with dividends. At the current 16.81x, it is about $208 before dividends, closer to high single digits annualized with the 3.80% yield. These are not predictions. The tab exists so you can see what you are implicitly assuming when you buy. Two things to watch: whether 2027 AFFO growth lands above the 4.36% modeled, since management is calling 2026 the bottom, and how management uses the $2B buyback authorization approved last week.

7 Hot Stocks: The Picture Worth a Thousand Spreadsheets #investing #stocks #stockmarket youtu.be/dQbJR3_W0zI?si=KOYW…

7 Dividend ETFs + 1 Beaten-Down REIT on FAST Graphs | Partner Series ft. Devoted Dividend Investing #DividendInvesting #DividendETFs #SCHD #RealtyIncome #FASTGraphs youtu.be/5SK6oLfivQk?si=QJ2a…

Is Big Tech Holding Up the S&P 500? The Risk Behind SPY #AI #stocks #stockmarket #fastgraphs youtu.be/gy5YWiukii0?si=naF7…

Massive earnings revisions downwards for the 2028 estimates!

One Stock Is Famous. The Other Could Be the Better Buy. #fastgraphs #stockmarket #investing youtu.be/hebMwH39kck?si=spP7…

$BRO has raised its dividend for 33 years in a row, but the stock is down 43%. Is this a buying opportunity or a falling knife? VALUATION (from @FASTGraphs): Blended P/E: 15.87x Normal P/E: 22.64x over 20 years 5-year normal P/E: 26.31x EPS yield: 6.30% Dividend yield: 0.94% Since December 2006, earnings are up 729%, while the stock price is up 361%, lowering the P/E from roughly 28x in 2006 to 16x today. The stock peaked near $125 in March 2025, at a P/E of roughly 29x. Four quarters later it's at $70 and a blended P/E near 16x. THE BUSINESS: When a trucking company, a hospital, or a city needs insurance, it usually does not call an insurer. It calls a broker, who shops the risk to carriers, negotiates the terms, and collects a commission on the premium every year the policy renews. Brown & Brown is one of the world's five largest insurance brokers: $5.9 billion in revenue in 2025, about 23,000 employees, and more than 700 offices. It carries no underwriting risk. The carriers pay the claims. $BRO was founded in Daytona Beach in 1939. Hyatt Brown joined the family agency in 1959, bought it out, became CEO in 1961, and ran it for 48 years, listing it on the NYSE in 1993. His son Powell has served as CEO since 2009, and Hyatt remains chairman. The company grew through hundreds of acquisitions of smaller agencies with operating margins near 30%, and it joined the S&P 500 in 2021. One segment sells insurance and benefits to businesses, governments and individuals. The other sells to other brokers and runs insurance programs on behalf of carrierBsR. THE FUNDAMENTALS (2022 to 2025): Revenue: $3.57B to $5.90B (18.25% CAGR) Operating income: $1.04B to $1.70B (17.56% CAGR) Net income: $659M to $1.04B (16.53% CAGR) Operating cash flow: $881M to $1.45B (18.05% CAGR) Operating margin: 29.23% to 28.72% Return on equity: 15.03% to 9.62% Return on invested capital: 9.35% to 7.32% LT debt/capital: 44.23% to 34.87% Profit grew with revenue, and margins held. In 2025, the company doubled in size. Total assets went from $17.80B to $30.65B, equity from $6.44B to $12.57B, and the company spent $7.91B on acquisitions, with $7.71B raised in stock and debt. Return on equity and invested capital fell because the new capital arrived in June and the acquired earnings only started in August. After the acquisition, Enterprise value stands at $31.03B against a $23.60B market cap. EPS HISTORY: 2006: $0.62 2011: $0.57 2016: $0.91 2020: $1.67 2023: $2.81 2024: $3.84 2025: $4.26 2026 estimate: $4.49 2027 estimate: $4.85 2028 estimate: $5.34 EPS growth has depended on the strength of the broader insurance market. No growth for five years from 2006 to 2011. Then $0.57 to $4.26 over 14 years, about 15% a year. The 54% jump in 2017 and 16% drop in 2018 on the chart are the 2017 tax law passing through the numbers. Analysts model 5%, 8%, and 10% from here. The dividend went from $0.11 to $0.62 over the same 20 years, requiring roughly 15% of earnings. THE CATCH: Revenue grew 35% in Q1 and 30% in Q2. Almost all of that growth was from acquisitions. The core Brown & Brown business grew 10.4% in 2024, 2.8% in 2025, was flat in Q1 of 2026, and -0.7% in Q2, excluding contingent commissions. A broker's commission is a percentage of the premium, so when rates fall, the same clients pay less. Catastrophe property rates fell 15% to 35% last quarter, and management expects more. The last time rates fell like this is the 2006 to 2011 stretch on the chart. The company bought Accession Risk Management for $9.825 billion, its largest deal to date, closing on August 1, 2025. It paid with about $4 billion of new stock sold at $102 a share in June 2025, another $1.2 billion of stock issued to Accession's owners at $110.57, and debt. The stock is at $70.53 today, 31% below the offering price, and the company has since bought back about $500 million of shares in the 60s. A $400 million note comes due in December. The market's other worry is that software replaces the middleman. Management announced AI partnerships this year and says the benefits will arrive in three to five years. In its favor: adjusted EPS still grew 7.8% in the first quarter and 3.9% in the second, with zero organic growth, because Accession's earnings came in. The FAST Graphs Analyst Scorecard shows Brown & Brown beat both the one and two-year estimates 55% of the time and hit estimates the other 45%, with no misses. On the Forecasting tab, 2028 EPS of $5.34 at the 5-year normal P/E of 26.31x results in a share price of $140.37, a 37.57% estimated annual return with dividends. At the 20-year normal P/E of 22.64x, the share price would be $121. At the 15x fair value multiple, it would be $80. These scenarios are based on analyst estimates, which can be wrong. They are not predictions or recommendations to buy or sell the stock.