Felliot Ness PhD

II- Situation on Donbas 🇺🇦 (eastern) front Unlike the southern front, where the situation improved for the Ukrainian army in 2026, the eastern front has not seen any such improvement. However, the Ukrainians can still be satisfied by the slowing of the Russian advance and the recent stabilization of the front near Sloviansk. In early 2026, the Ukrainians managed to disengage from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad—since they still held numerous positions in those areas. Even so, intense Russian pressure—exerted by four armies (the 29th, 51st, 41st, and 8th) along a 50-kilometer front—has allowed Russian forces to advance to the outskirts of Dobropilla. The offensive toward the western administrative borders of the Donbas has been halted, and the push toward Druzhkivka has been temporarily repelled. That said, Russian forces have advanced toward Dobropilla and are carrying out deep infiltrations, reaching the city center and beyond. The city is of critical importance; more significantly, its capture could potentially serve as a springboard for an offensive toward Barvinkove, striking behind the Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbas. While I consider such an offensive unlikely, given the strength of the Ukrainian defensive lines, frequent infiltrations are to be expected. The battle for Kostiantynivka has now been raging for a year, yet the city has not fallen. I estimate that the Russians hold the advantage in about 50% of the city (though this does not imply firm control or established logistics), while the Ukrainians hold the advantage in about 15%, leaving the remaining 35% contested. For the time being, the advance toward Druzhkivka appears to have slowed, while Ukrainian forces have partially withdrawn from the last positions they held in Chasiv Yar. Finally, the situation east of the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk—which had deteriorated significantly in 2026—has shown some improvement since September. Ukrainian forces have pushed back the front line near Mykolaivka and Kramatorsk; however, the persistent threat from FPV drones and KAB (guided aerial bombs) remains, having forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians in recent months. Overall, the military situation in the region is much better than it was in the spring, though it remains tense. The Russians are now within a few kilometers of major cities and new defensive lines, leaving little room for further maneuvering. Consequently, all future combat in the region will likely be frontal. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether the Ukrainian army can successfully stabilize the front and how the Russian advance toward Dobropillia will unfold. Thank you for following this second update; the next one will cover the situation on the Oskil front.