Falkon

WHAT IS DEAD CANNOT DIE. Resurrection.

JUST IN: U.S. producer prices fell in June. PPI: -0.3% month over month. Producer prices are still up 5.5% year over year.

JUST IN: Apple Intelligence has been registered with China’s cyberspace regulator. Alibaba’s Qwen will power Apple Intelligence features for users in China. $AAPL $BABA

UPDATE: Fed rate-hike odds dropped after the cooler CPI report. Traders now see about a 10% chance of a July hike, down from 35% before CPI. Headline CPI came in at 3.5% vs 3.8% expected.

JUST IN: State attorneys general preparing lawsuit to block Paramount's merger with Warner Bros.

JUST IN: Oil climbs and Treasuries fall after latest US strikes on Iran. Bonds are pricing inflation, not war. Gold dropping too. CPI Tuesday.

THE WEEK AHEAD Tuesday: June CPI drops. The number that decides the July Fed meeting. Tuesday: Warsh testifies before Congress. First time as Fed Chair. Tuesday: Bank earnings begin. JPM, GS, Citi, WFC report. Wednesday: PPI + Fed Beige Book. All of it lands in 48 hours. Wednesday night we know how July trades. Rate decision July 28-29. This week sets the table.

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WEEKLY RECAP Trump kills the Iran ceasefire. Oil +4% on the week. War premium is back in the barrel. BTC reclaims $64K off the $58K lows. ETFs snap a 10-day outflow streak with $221M in a day. Biggest inflow in 2 months. $450M in shorts liquidated on the move above $62K. The bounce was forced, not bought. 10Y yield hits 4.56%. Highest since May. Bonds are not buying the soft landing. S&P 500 closes 40 points from all-time highs. AI trade did all the lifting. Tech +3% on the week. Circle approved to operate as a bank. Stablecoins just went institutional.

JUST IN: AstraZeneca $AZN loses $27 billion in market value after failed trial.

JUST IN: South Korea’s chip-heavy KOSPI has entered bear-market territory. The index is down more than 20% from its late-June record close. Samsung fell 6.3% and SK Hynix fell 5.7%.

GUI Team wishes a Happy and Peaceful 4th of July USA🦅🇺🇸 you all know what to do.👇

REPORT: U.S. deficit spending may be helping drive the stock market rally. Reuters says the federal budget deficit hit 6.4% of GDP in Q1. Private investment was just 2.7% of GDP.

REPORT: Small-cap stocks are having their biggest run in decades. The Russell 2000 is up 22% this year, its strongest first-half performance since 1991. Small caps are now outperforming the $NDAQ by 9 percentage points.