What is PEM? PEM, or Point Efficiency Model, is a schedule-adjusted measure of how effectively a college football team produces and prevents points, expressed on a point-based power-rating scale. It is not simply an efficiency ranking, a box-score model, or a résumé ranking. PEM evaluates offense and defense independently, then places that performance in the context of the competition a team has faced and the résumé it has built. At its core, PEM is based on the idea that all production is not equal. Scoring production is evaluated alongside the efficiency with which it is created or prevented, rather than treating every point or possession the same. A win does not automatically mean a team played well, and a loss does not automatically mean it played poorly. The underlying performance still matters. Because PEM is expressed in points, the difference between two teams’ ratings serves as the baseline for a projected matchup margin before home-field advantage.

Big Ten: Ohio State vs UCLA Big 12: BYU vs Utah SEC: Georgia vs Kentucky PEM's projected championship matchups across all ten conferences after Week 8. Which race changes most?

The playoff race goes beyond the power rankings. Current records, expected finishes and CFP chances after Week 8, from PEM's 10,000 season simulations. Which contender has the clearest path left?

Ohio State leads PEM's national title forecast after Week 8. Ohio State: 22.2% Notre Dame: 21.1% Alabama: 13.7% The contender board from 10,000 season simulations. Who is the biggest threat outside the top three?

Ohio State, Miami (FL), Georgia and Notre Dame get the byes in PEM's projected CFP field after Week 8. All 12 teams, seeds and projected records. Which team outside this field has the strongest case?

Notre Dame vs Miami (FL) for the title. PEM has Notre Dame -5.2. The projected CFP bracket after Week 8, with a winner and spread in every matchup. Who changes this path?

SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 lead PEM's conference strength rankings after Week 8. This is every team's rating averaged within its league. The teams at the bottom count as much as the teams at the top.

Colorado State: No. 30 offense, No. 138 defense. PEM's most one-sided teams after Week 8. The gaps show where a team is leaning hardest on one unit. Which team can fix its weaker side?

Notre Dame, Ohio State and LSU. PEM's most balanced teams after Week 8, ranked by the strength of their weaker side. Being balanced means more when both units are good. Who belongs higher?

PEM's ATS underdogs: 47-40-4 (54.0%) ATS favorites: 65-70-2 (48.1%) Weeks 5-8 combined. Taking the points has held up better, but that group has cooled too. These are ATS sides, beyond the outright upset calls.

A 5+ EDGE filter is 51-54-1 ATS (48.6%) through Week 8. Full card: 112-110-6 (50.5%). Larger gaps haven't improved the record so far. The cutoffs stay the same as more results come in.

The 8-15 EDGE watch: Week 8: 3-5-1 ATS (37.5%) Weeks 5-8: 24-22-1 (52.2%) The early gains have narrowed. We keep following the same range, including the bad weeks.

PEM's 15+ EDGE group is now 8-16 ATS (33.3%). Under 3: 45-37-4 (54.9%). The biggest disagreements have struggled most. All six ranges through Week 8, with the same boundaries and every result included.

Texas: 35.5% to 65.9% CFP chance LSU: 46.7% to 72.3% CFP chance Tennessee: 58.5% to 11.7% CFP chance The biggest playoff probability moves since last week in PEM's season simulations.

All 138 FBS teams, from Notre Dame to Sacramento State. Every current PEM rating after Week 8. Find your team and tell me where the model has it wrong.

SMU led this week's PEM offense gains. Marshall led on defense. National ranks: SMU offense: 44 to 34 Marshall defense: 131 to 127 The biggest unit improvements after Week 8.

Texas Tech: 10.4 to 9.1 expected wins Iowa: 8.9 to 7.6 expected wins Troy: 5.7 to 4.6 expected wins The biggest drops in PEM's season outlook after Week 8. The result and the outlook for the remaining schedule both matter.

Middle Tennessee: 4.8 to 6.3 expected wins Cincinnati: 5.7 to 6.9 expected wins Southern Miss: 2.3 to 3.5 expected wins The biggest gains in PEM's season outlook after Week 8. The result and the outlook for the remaining schedule both matter.

ULM: No. 137 to No. 134 Middle Tennessee: No. 124 to No. 117 Northern Illinois: No. 132 to No. 137 The biggest PEM rating gains and drops after Week 8. A big rating change and a big ranking change aren't always the same thing.

Syracuse: 84.2 plays per game, .295 points per play. Georgia: 62.7 plays, .633 points per play. Georgia is getting more than twice the points out of each snap. Syracuse fans have been watching the extended edition.