https://teapaw.org/t.co/YNd8lDZaHd / [email protected] / Will post analysis, but not investment advice. Do your own work.
Houston, TX
Joined May 2012
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I believe $CMCSA Universal Orlando parks are in much need of some major capex, otherwise will see attendance issues. There are 3 $CMCSA theme parks in Orlando: Islands of Adventure, Universal Orlando, and Epic Universe.
At Islands of Adventure - only 2 rides are < 10 years old. Many of the rides are > 20 years old and its evident. Islands is split into 8 themed "islands". Besides the Harry Potter area (specifically Hagrid Motorbike) and Jurassic's Velocicoaster, the rest of the park is very outdated, under construction, or in refurbishment. It's not worth the $125/day.
Universal Orlando is in worse shape. Many of the newer rides are screen related. The last fully non-screen ride created was The Mummy (2004). The 2018 Fast & Furious ride was widely disliked, closed, and thankfully they are building a F&F coaster (2027 open). All rides open in the last 10 years are using screens only.
Epic Universe is a good addition, but it is ~10 minutes away, and also a good "one day park", meaning it will need to expand, and in order to Universal to maximize the whole ecosystem of staying for multiple days, they will need to upgrade or build quite a few new attractions at the original parks in the next few years.
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After going through $CMCSA & $CHTR earnings, some points:
- no pricing power in broadband, the "core offering", and as household passing increase, still lowing subs, despite not taking pricing actions
- doing better in wireless (but still competitive)
- goal is lower churn, bundling, convergence
- $CHTR has < $15bn equity but ~ $108bn EV
Possible that $GOOG is permanently turning into a capital-intensive company.
With AI revenue growth + incredible capex spend, will there be adequate ROIC?
- possible that while search monetization rises, user trust deteriorates (GOOG experimenting with sponsored links, contextual ads, direct offers...AI answers blend synthesis and recommendation priority)
- Alphabet began selling TPU systems in Q2: could create large upfront revenues but be low / no margin. Management *did not* disclose TPU margins.
- Planning to expand the use of 3rd party capacity while they build more internal capacity
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S&P Global on AI:
- they think private AI funding has probably peaked, moving now to public
- AI infrastructure is still ramping up, from $700bn in capex in 2026, $850bn in 2027...
- copper is the backbone of the data center; no way data centers can deliver enhanced computer power without copper wiring - think there's more upside to Copper
- huge growth opportunities for AI adoption: average company still spends $11 per user on AI tools, equal to a NFLX subscription
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The Nintendo $NTDOY "platform" is evident in how in FY2027, from 9-21 months post Switch 2 release, Nintendo is est. 60m software sales on the Switch 2 but 105m still on Switch 1. Gone are the days of a new console reset every ~6-7 years, we are in year 9 of the Switch and still selling >100m software copies.
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It seems like Nintendo's "guidance" gets a lot of attention, how they may sandbag. Based on my analysis, they seem to be mixed in their estimates of "console sales" but underestimate the software sales, which (absent FY2025), still allows Nintendo to hit or exceed their financial forecasts. Here is one example, using FY2021 and FY2022. $NTDOY
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