First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap) header
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Investor. Small cap asia, tech, monopolies, semi’s

Joined July 2022
Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)Photo by First Hill Capital (@FirstHillcap)
Thread of my ideas shared on this platform
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There has never been a better time to be a small cap semiconductor analyst
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First Hill Capital retweeted
You can use this filter religiously, and it has almost 100% efficacy. The best ideas typically don't have that much interest on twitter (if any), and an even better sign is if you do post about it and then get a few dms from anon lurkers saying they own it too.
Any time there’s like a super rabid shareholder group on main that posts tons of work and spreadsheets and models the idea blows up.
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We've increased our token spend 240x since January... The token use:
We now have a Teammate called GTABot, whose “role” is to keep creating interesting GTA mods. Here is a GTA VI Minecraft mod that rebuilt Leonida from a community map at one block per meter.
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Not this again😂
This is WAY ABOVE expectations. WSJ: "Anthropic’s run rate—a metric used to estimate annual revenue—topped $80 billion at the end of October, up from the prior month, according to a person familiar with the matter."
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Where is the nothing ever happens guy
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028. She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.” Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas. Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview. Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post. Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics. youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
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Yea I mean they are going to have to make concessions but all these sites are going to get approved somewhere. It's like power there's a lot of ways around the constraint so it's not really a bottleneck
$SPCX Arizona AI data center in Cochise County. ABout 1.5 square miles and up to 6 gigawatts
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😂😂 This is really funny
Riley Trettel (Energy & Data Center Development at SpaceX) in yesterdays Cochise Data Center meeting. He claims the project will deliver up to: - 40% off residential power bills for Sulphur Springs members, for the life of the project - $53 million a year to the SSVEC Foundation, for education and the community - $190 million a year in extra capital for Sulphur Springs, for projects or back to members - $200 million a year for AEPCO and its members. About $100 million of that for Sulphur Springs - $3.6 billion in new power lines, paid by SpaceX and given to the co-op. The co-op takes on no debt - $30 to $100 million a year in new property tax, and a 20% cut in everyone else's county property taxes - $250 million, one time, in sales tax. He said it could pay off the jail bond and fund the sheriff, fire districts, and the hospital - $50 billion invested in the project - 1,000 permanent jobs and 5,000 construction jobs - No industrial water. Water for staff and maintenance about equal to 20–30 homes a year - No gas turbines and no power plant on the site. The computers buy power from the co-op grid - Dark-sky lighting, pointed at the ground - Cooling equipment more than 1,500 feet from any neighboring property line or public road This project is clearly extremely positive for the area.
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First Hill Capital retweeted
Yields down? Sell semis.
Yields up? Sell semis.
Hyperscalers raise capex? Sell semis.
Hyperscalers cut capex? Sell semis, obviously.
AMD blows out earnings? Sell semis.
Democrats win? Sell semis.
Republicans would've won? Probably sell semis.
"Sold out of HBM through 2027"? Believe it or not, sell semis.
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ya if someone had a PDF that'd be great
Anyone have the latest version of the Japanese Company Handbook?
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WFE starting to look juicy again. What's the buzz about these companies doing layoffs? Heard some rumors going around. There has been absolutely no deterioration of the fundamentals of these companies Japan and Korea are a gift to the patient investor 🧘‍♂️
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The lag of most industries outside of SF is shocking, these boomer industries are still chatting to copilot keep in mind. Go visit your local machine shop
our team’s getting AI agents to design more and more complex assemblies while improving the back end of ntop to speed this up and the Wright J-5 rotary engine is a good start ~1600 parts that AI agents modeled in ~1.5hrs total
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China demand is coming
This may not be the most appropriate comparison, but I’ve been meeting with industry contacts here in China, and selling Blackwell is now more profitable than selling drugs. Prices have tripled in just four months. I’m told an eight-GPU server now goes for RMB 16 million.
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Why does WFE sell down with this news?
Incoming DRAM wafer capacity additions (10k wpm) - 2026F to 2028F CXMT leads the 2026 ramp. Micron & Samsung accelerate hard into 2028. $SKHY $MU $DRAM #DRAM #HBM #Semiconductors #AI #CXMT #Samsung
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First Hill Capital retweeted
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Wafers
CXMT is getting big. Really big. BofA estimates CXMT will reach roughly 300k DRAM wafers/month, versus around 400k for Micron. $MU The DRAM Big 3 is now Big 3 + 1. But here's the catch: CXMT will be 2027's most expensive memory stock. Chosun Biz reported in September 2026 that CXMT HBM3 production yield is only 20-30% However, Bank of America still assumes that by the end of 2027 and 2028, 50,000 and 100,000 wafers of monthly capacity will be deployed to HBM, respectively.
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Dylan Patel said it first except in a much more elegant way😂
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman believes people owning RAM is wasteful, and that it belongs in data centers instead. "From a global allocation perspective, actually, it’s quite terrible to have everyone have a bunch of the world’s limited supply of DRAM sitting in their own computer."
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I wonder if to be a good investor you must be fundamentally broken as a person 😂
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yes. Who is going to model this properly?? its impossible
Replying to @zephyr_z9
Silly analysis. Robot RAM needs will exceed everything else on Earth, as you need the robots to be on physical substates in order to shape atoms. Super intelligence needs will vastly exceed that, but ~100% of SI will be deep space compute. Obviously.
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I love that AI hardware and WFE is going to sell off on this
Replying to @chamath
Pretty much. As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue. That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
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yea... by the way never ever ever refinance your student loans from federal to private.
President Trump says he might sign legislation capping student loan interest rates at 2.5%.
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