nieuwsjunk. Speciale interesse voor (Oost-) Europa en Rusland. @Fonsvanlier@mastodon.nl / @fonsvanlier.bsky.social
Rotterdam, Nederland
Joined November 2011
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Fons van Lier retweeted
"Ich bitte dich um eine Sache. Gib einfach Europa an Russland" Boris Jelzin 19. November 1999
🇺🇸🇪🇺 A column by David Ignatius in WP citing a U.S. official familiar with the talks:
Kushner sees NATO-Russia Council as a possible model for a broader European security architecture involving Russia.
He has linked ceasefire/peace talks on Ukraine with parallel or simultaneous multilateral discussions between Russia and European countries on continental security.
European officials have indicated openness to dialogue with Moscow but insist a ceasefire (or peace agreement) in Ukraine must come first before any wider security framework.
Putin reportedly expressed interest in the broader pan-European security idea during an October 21 meeting with Steve Witkoff.
Fons van Lier retweeted
The MUSK documentary is now streaming on Amazon Prime and Apple. Elon Musk did his best to keep it from being seen, so it’s no coincidence that it was removed from theaters before the midterms.
I just finished watching it, and honestly, I’m glad I didn’t see it before the election because it would’ve scared the fuck out of me. I’m so glad the midterms turned out like they did.
This man and others like him need to be held accountable. He is unhinged, a monster, a murderer, a narcissist, and an evil motherfucker with a God complex.
Grok can stay on X. I will NEVER download that shit on my phone.
The devastation one man has been allowed to cause to our country and our planet over the last two years is staggering, all without any constraints from a megalomaniac president and a cowardly, greed-possessed Congress.
This is a MUST-WATCH. We need to stay on top of our elected officials and demand they STRIP HIM of his unchecked power and hold him accountable for the MASSIVE DAMAGE he’s done. And we need guardrails going forward so that NO single person can ever hold unchecked control again.
**THIS IS A DIRE WARNING**
Fons van Lier retweeted
In other words, the Ukrainian estimates of russian casualties are bang on accurate, or maybe even slightly understated.
450k counted dead + huge number dead counted as missing in action + at least 2-3x that number wounded - the total russian casualties are at leadt 1.5m as the Ukrainian general staff say, and could easily be above 2 million.
Fons van Lier retweeted
New assessment of the greatest of all time: Antarctic blue whales, showing how whaling reduced them from >200,000 to a low of just 418 before slow recovery at 4.5% per year to more than 4000
Rand et al. [incl. me] doi.org/10.3354/esr01557
Fons van Lier retweeted
PREDICTION: Ukraine is going to come under intense pressure to surrender over the next two months.
Ukrainian intelligence believes fascist Russia’s dictator Putin has stockpiled enough ballistic missiles and other strategic weapons for a campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy and water infrastructure over the winter. The aim is to make major Ukrainian cities unlivable in the winter months, and provoke a mass refugee crisis from Ukraine into Europe that will further destabilize the political situation in the EU.
Why over the next two months? For these three main reasons:
1. The next U.S. Congress sits in early January 2027. The Democrats will then have majorities in the Senate and House, and thereafter Trump’s administration could well be seriously constrained. Before that, however, there are two months left for the Trump administration to provide useful aid to the Kremlin. That includes withholding Patriot system interceptors, which will make Ukraine more vulnerable to missile attacks.
2. With key EU member states heading into critical electoral cycles in early 2027, political leaders in Western Europe will be under immense pressure to prioritize domestic economic demands over underwriting Ukraine’s defense and state budget, leaving Kyiv facing a catastrophic funding shortfall just as its winter needs reach their peak.
3. Ukraine's rapidly maturing deep-strike campaign – which has systematically taken offline nearly a third of Russia's refining capacity while striking missile propellant plants and airfields deep inside the Russian interior – is inflicting severe domestic economic and operational costs on Moscow. The Kremlin calculates that its narrow window to force a Ukrainian capitulation is now in the next few months, before Kyiv’s expanding domestic long-range missile and drone capabilities permanently erode Russia's own industrial stability and home-front security.
This upcoming period will thus be an intense attritional race between Putin's attempt to weaponize winter and Western flaccidity, and the West's ability to sustain Kyiv until these fleeting strategic windows close.
Fons van Lier retweeted
In Istanbul in 1999, Russia pledged to withdraw all Russian army units from Moldova by the end of 2002. Despite repeated requests from the OSCE, Russia never withdrew its troops.
Fons van Lier retweeted
Only a week after the Russian Defense Ministry's low-key announcement that there would be no December salary payments for any military officers not actually in combat, Russians are now figuring out that the payment freezes actually began back in October, even for those at the front.
Russian wives are not happy.
The Russian government's cash crunch now finally extends to the military, as Russia's Ministry of Defense has announced that all officers not currently serving at the front will be skipping their December salary.
No reason has been given. This waa uncovered this morning by Russian media outlet Verstka.
Fons van Lier retweeted
Can't emphasize enough how significant this new leak is. The data is extremely detailed including date of death, a description of the cause of death, P.O.B., D.O.B... 🤯
Fons van Lier retweeted
A group of hackers published classified data on Russian soldiers killed in the war, from Russia's statistics agency Rosstat. In late August, the total was 450,100 (around 100k per year). It is in line with other independent estimates. There is also a regional breakdown.
Fons van Lier retweeted
Zelensky says preliminary data shows Russians used North Korean KN-23 missiles on one of the key energy facilities that was damaged.
Fons van Lier retweeted
Niemand wird später einmal sagen: „Wie gut und klug, dass wir abwartend zugesehen haben, wie Putin in Kyjiw Zivilisten, Brücken, Heizungen und Wasserleitungen bombardiert hat.“
Fons van Lier retweeted
Russia aims to make Ukraine uninhabitable – and Europe is just watching.
According to Zelenskyy, Russia has attacked Ukraine with 172 drones and 36 ballistic missiles.
The enemy directed all of these missiles at Kyiv and the Kyiv region. The primary target was, once again, energy infrastructure. In the Kyiv region, electrical substations—which connect the Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants to the capital and the central regions of Ukraine—were damaged.
Fons van Lier retweeted
Verschrikkelijke nacht in Kyiv. Raket na raket na raket. Energie-infrastructuur en noordelijke brug hard geraakt, volgens burgemeester is brug afgesloten. Exacte schade nog ongekend.
Fons van Lier retweeted
Weer een ziekenhuis. Russen publiceren het zelf. Ze zijn er apetrots op. Knap zijn wij, hè?
Fons van Lier retweeted
While the White House is patting itself on the back, Russia was bombing our power facilities here this week, in Ukraine, preparing to freeze Ukrainians this Winter….families, children, the elderly 🤷♂️
Fons van Lier retweeted
🔴 NEW: Germany’s defense ministry privately warned that moving away from American weapons too fast could jeopardize Berlin’s relations with Washington.
Internal papers seen by @POLITICOEurope reveal Germany’s bind: Trump has made the US harder to trust — and harder to leave. 🧵
Fons van Lier retweeted
Trouble is this is precisely what Russia has spent 3 decades fighting. “Any arrangements must fully respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independent decision-making of every nation. Each country will retain authority over its own security and alliances…” -1-
President Trump today advanced an important discussion with several European leaders about the need for a broader European security architecture that can help establish the conditions for lasting peace.
Building on his leadership and the substantive work undertaken this week in Brussels with Ukraine, NATO, and our European partners, @SEPeaceMissions and I wanted to share some of the objectives guiding our ongoing discussions.
For more than 30 years, Europe and Russia have struggled to establish a sustainable security framework. Decades of mistrust, competing security concerns, and the devastating consequences of this war make this an extraordinarily difficult challenge, but one that is essential to lasting peace.
Our objective is to develop practical arrangements that address the security concerns of all sides, reduce the risk of future conflict, and create a more stable and predictable security environment.
We are exploring five principal goals: permanent security consultations, reliable crisis communications, greater military transparency, reciprocal measures to reduce escalation risks, and an enduring framework for long-term European security and stability.
Any arrangements must fully respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independent decision-making of every nation. Each country will retain authority over its own security and alliances, and no country would have a veto over another’s sovereign choices. NATO will remain central to European collective defense, and this initiative would build upon existing institutions and commitments.
We will continue consultations through the Shell Bay format with Ukraine, NATO, the EU, and our European partners, expanding engagement to ensure that all relevant perspectives and ideas are considered. We will also engage Russia as part of the peace negotiations.
Next week in Abu Dhabi, the United States will convene the first trilateral peace discussions with Ukraine and Russia since February. All parties remain intensely engaged in preparing for substantive and productive negotiations. We will consult closely with our European partners on the sidelines and, if progress is made, aim to move toward a broader multilateral format with their direct participation.
These ideas continue to evolve, and we welcome thoughtful input. Creating the right structure will be critical to ending this war and transitioning from conflict toward conditions that make possible a durable peace.
This is difficult, detailed work. There are no easy solutions. But the opportunity to help end this devastating war and build a foundation for a more peaceful, secure, and prosperous Europe for generations to come makes it a challenge well worth undertaking.
We will see how these discussions develop and continue working intensively with all parties toward President Trump’s objective of a comprehensive and lasting peace.
