Football Tips

Birmingham City v Millwall, Millwall or draw @ 1.85 ✅ Birmingham score 2 a game at home & still lose ground in them, because they give up 1.88. Millwall away score 1.25 & stay in games, that's their whole identity. The away-side double chance is the version both witnesses clear. 🎯 Millwall 1.25 scored a game away, Birmingham 1.88 conceded a game at home.

Galatasaray v VfB Stuttgart, VfB Stuttgart or draw @ 1.84 ✅ Rams Park on a Champions League night & everyone reaches for Galatasaray. The tape says Galatasaray concede 1.88 a game at home. Stuttgart score 1.62 a game away & they don't do blowout defeats on the road. 🎯 Galatasaray 1.88 conceded a game at home, Stuttgart 1.62 scored a game away.

Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting CP, Shakhtar Donetsk or draw @ 1.79 ✅ Sporting away carry a real threat, 2.38 a game, & that's exactly why this isn't a Shakhtar win bet. Shakhtar at home concede 0.88 & they'll need to score through a defense that's been beaten twice in eight on the road. 🎯 Shakhtar 0.88 conceded a game at home, Sporting 2.38 scored a game away.

Atlético Madrid v FC Bayern München, Atlético de Madrid or draw @ 1.61 ✅ Atlético haven't lost at the Metropolitano in 8 & they're giving up 0.57 a game there. Bayern will have the ball & the chances, that's what they do. But 3.50 a game away comes with chaos attached & the Metropolitano doesn't do chaos for visitors. 🎯 Atlético unbeaten in 8 at home, 0.57 conceded a game there.

Queens Park Rangers v Burnley, over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 ✅ Burnley's away defense has been leaking for a month, 2.12 a game & one clean sheet in the whole run. QPR score 2 a game at Loftus Road & Burnley still find a goal away, 1.25 a game.

Huddersfield Town v Luton Town, over 2.5 goals @ 1.63 ✅ Luton away games are just goals. 4.24 a game over their last 8, they score 2 & they ship 2, nobody keeps it tight with them. Huddersfield's home games aren't quiet either, 3.37 a game & they've scored in them all season. 🎯 Luton away 4.24 goals a game, Huddersfield home 3.37.

West Bromwich Albion v Southampton, Southampton or draw @ 1.57 ✅ Southampton away are quietly one of the hardest outs in the division: unbeaten in 6 of 8 on the road & a goal conceded a game. West Brom at home score 1.50 & that's against defenses worse than this one. 🎯 Southampton beaten once in 8 away, WBA 1.50 scored a game at home.

Boca Juniors v River Plate: over 2.5 goals @ 2.40 Boca have kept 8 in 15 at home, River 5 in 14 away. Boca scored 21 in those 15 & conceded 9, so their home games run 2 goals. River's away games run 1.9.

Marítimo v Santa Clara: over 2.5 goals @ 2.43 Santa Clara have conceded 2 in 4 away games & kept two clean sheets doing it. Marítimo at home are 4 scored & 7 conceded in 4, under three goals a game in their own matches.

Paris v Monaco: over 2.5 goals @ 1.78 ✅ 1.9 xG a game at home is what Paris bring into this and they've turned it into 9 goals in 4. Monaco away have scored in 3 of 4 themselves so both halves of the total have a pulse. 🎯 Paris average 1.9 xG a game at home.

Academico Viseu v Rio Ave: over 2.5 goals @ 1.91 ✅ Viseu at home have kept no clean sheet all season and still found 10 goals in 4 games. Rio Ave away have conceded 6 in 4. 🎯 Viseu have conceded 6 in 4 home games with no clean sheet.

Palermo v Vicenza: over 2.5 goals @ 1.54 ✅ 4 home games, 4 wins and a goal in every one of them. Vicenza away have scored in 4 of 5 but they've shipped 9 across those 5 and faced 33 shots on target to 15 of their own. 🎯 Palermo have scored in all 4 home games this season.

Football Tip: Both teams to score in FC Copenhagen v Odense BK @ 1.71 ✅ FC Copenhagen have put 11 goals into their 5 home games at 2.2 a game and have not been blanked once. The visiting side has scored in 3 of those games. Odense BK have spent the autumn building more than they have finished. Their away expected goals run at 1.38 a game against the 0.83 they have actually put away. Copenhagen put 6.6 shots on target up a game at their own ground. Odense have conceded in 5 of their 6 away games. 🎯 Copenhagen have scored in all 5 home games, and Odense have conceded in 5 of their 6 away games.

Football Tip: Under 3.5 goals in Istra 1961 v Hajduk Split @ 1.51 ✅ Hajduk Split are 2 wins and 2 defeats in 4 away games, 7 scored and 6 conceded. Only one of those four matches went past 3.5 goals. Istra have conceded 8 in 5 at home, 1.6 a game, and kept one clean sheet. Only one visiting side has scored more than twice at their ground. Hajduk score 1.8 a game on the road and Istra concede 1.6 at home. 🎯 Istra have conceded more than two at home once in five. Hajduk have cleared 3.5 on the road once in four.

Football Tip: Real Madrid +1 against Barcelona ✅ Real Madrid have played 4 away games this season and every one was decided by a single goal. They won at Espanyol and at Elche, and lost at Real Betis and Atlético by a goal each, so the handicap has not been beaten once on the road. Barcelona have won all 4 home games by 2 or more, but against sides sitting 12th to 17th. Athletic Club and Getafe were beaten 2-0 and 3-0, and the 5-2 and the 7-2 came against Rayo Vallecano and Racing. The case against: Barcelona have scored 3 or more in 8 of their 9 league games and Real Madrid concede 1.5 a game on the road. Another 5-2 at Camp Nou and the stake is gone. 🎯 Real Madrid's 4 away games have all finished within a goal, and Barcelona's 4 home wins have all come against the bottom half.

Football Tip: AC Milan to win against Udinese ✅ Udinese have lost 3 of their 4 home games, drawn 1 and won none. They have scored twice at home all season and conceded 7, with no clean sheet there. AC Milan are unbeaten on the road. They have won 1 and drawn 3, and they score in every one of those games. Milan's habit on the road is the risk. They have been level in 3 of their 4 away games, including 1-1 at Juventus and at Sassuolo, and 2-2 at Lazio. Udinese are 16th on 4 points; Milan are 5th on 15. 🎯 Udinese are still waiting for a first home win, with 2 goals to show for their 4 games there, against a Milan side unbeaten away.

Football Tip: AZ Alkmaar to win against Twente ✅ AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of their 4 home games this season, drawn 1 and lost none, scoring 9 and conceding 3 (0.8 per game). They scored in all 4 and kept 2 clean sheets. Twente have won 1 of their 4 away games, drawn 2 and lost 1, with no clean sheet in any of them and 1.3 conceded a game. They scored in 3 of the 4. The draw is the version that hurts this: Twente have drawn 2 of their 4 away games, and AZ drew 1-1 at home with Willem II. 🎯 AZ Alkmaar score in all 4 of their home games at 2.3 a game, concede 0.8, and sit 2nd on 20 points against Twente's 5th on 17.

Football Tip: Juventus to win against Lecce ✅ Lecce have lost 2 of their 3 home games this season and conceded 8 goals in them, 2.7 a game, with no clean sheet. The 2 defeats came against Roma and Bologna, and the win against Monza. Juventus have scored in all 3 of their away games, 1.3 goals a game and 1.3 conceded. They keep 1 clean sheet in 3, and sit 10th on 11 points against Lecce's 12th on 9. Juventus have won 1 of 3 on the road, losing at Sassuolo and drawing at Cagliari, so the away form is the version that hurts this. 🎯 Lecce concede 2.7 a home game with no clean sheet after losing 2 of 3 at home, and they sit 2 points below Juventus.

Football Tip: Both teams to score in Vitória Guimarães v Marítimo. Marítimo have scored in all four of their away matches this season, and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them, conceding 1.8 a game on the road. Vitória Guimarães have scored in half of their home matches and conceded 0.5 a game across those four. 🎯 Marítimo score in every away game, and Guimarães concede in every other home game, so both teams to score.

Football Tip: Three goals or more in the Bolton Wanderers v Middlesbrough match. Bolton's eleven matches have produced 33 goals, 3.0 a game. Middlesbrough's have produced 38, 3.45 a game. At home over the last 365 days Bolton's matches run 1.2 scored and 1.4 conceded. Middlesbrough's away matches run 1.6 and 1.4. Middlesbrough sit 3rd on 22 points, Bolton 15th on 14. 🎯 There's an average of 3.0 goals a game in Bolton's matches and 3.45 in Middlesbrough's, so three or more should arrive in this match.