📈 Partnerships @SwissBorg – growing a 1m+ user crypto wealth app 💰 Long‑term crypto 📊 No mid-curving charts analysis 🤝TG: shaddam_eth
London, England
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Every week I track the bitcoin:native calls from the KOLs I follow and check them against the actual chart. No hindsight, just what they said and what price did.
Here's this week's scorecard, with BTC sitting at about $81.5k this morning:
✅ @XBTkaz on Oct 17, with BTC around $81.5k: "84k before 78k," and he expected the pump to start Sunday evening.
BTC bottomed at $80.6k on Sunday evening, then hit $84k on Oct 21 without ever going near 78k.
Clean call. teapaw.org/XBTkaz/status/21115721…
✅ @au_xbt on Oct 19: a slow grind higher until Wednesday, then an upside breakout, with Oct 21 as his date.
BTC topped at $84.8k on Wednesday the 21st.
It didn't hold, but he sold his BTC and turned defensive early on the 22nd, around $82.8k on the way down. teapaw.org/au_xbt/status/21121897…
✅ @tradermatt on Oct 20: flipped long above $81.6k with a take profit at $83.4k.
TP hit on the morning of Oct 21. teapaw.org/tradermatt/status/2112…
⚠️ @Trader_XO on Oct 22, with BTC near $82.4k: failing to hold $81.5–82k "becomes problematic," and alts were about to unwind.
BTC lost that zone the same afternoon and dipped to $80.8k.
So far that's a warning that played out, not a crash. teapaw.org/Trader_XO/status/21131…
❌ Matt again on Oct 21, with BTC around $84.6k: "90k soon." The next day BTC fell to $80.8k, about 4.5% lower.
Not dead, but not this week. teapaw.org/tradermatt/status/2113…
❌ Kaz again on Oct 21: one more push to $85.5k, then a dump. The dump came, but the push never did; the high after his post was $84.4k.
His 75k month-end target is still open. teapaw.org/XBTkaz/status/21130547…
⏳ @Sykodelic_ on Oct 21: "$100k end of year," new highs by March 2027.
BTC needs about 23% from here. I'll keep tracking it. teapaw.org/Sykodelic_/status/2113…
This week's lesson: the people who called the 84k sweep and then took profit or cut risk on time were the ones who came out ahead.
The "90k soon" crowd got caught in the trap.
Imagine 13 green monthly candles.
That is what happened from the March 2020 low to the November 2021 high.
Throughout that 20 month period, there we 14 green and only 6 red monthly candles.
It will not be an exact replica of that 2020/2021 run, but the overall market position has been shaping up for something like this for a while now.
- $100k End of year
- New highs by March 2027
- $380K - $450K ATH by from Feb 2028 onwards
Those are my approximate targets.
joseph retweeted
Madame Lalucq,
Ce qui s’est passé chez Binance est grave.
Personne dans le secteur ne le minimise.
Mais en tirer une conclusion sur « les cryptos et la fiabilité », c’est comme juger l’euro à chaque braquage de banque.
Regardons les faits d’hier soir.
Le vol a été visible en temps réel par n’importe qui, n’importe où. En quelques heures, environ 3 milliards de dollars ont été gelés on-chain.
La plateforme annonce couvrir ses clients et rouvrir les retraits sous deux jours.
Je ne connais pas beaucoup de systèmes où l’on peut suivre et bloquer près de la moitié d’un vol de cette taille en une nuit.
La finance traditionnelle n’a pas de leçon de fiabilité à donner.
Wirecard : 1,9 milliard d’euros qui n’ont jamais existé, pendant que la BaFin portait plainte contre les journalistes qui l’avaient révélé.
Danske Bank : environ 200 milliards d’euros de flux suspects via une seule succursale.
Credit Suisse : racheté en urgence en un week-end, avec garanties publiques.
Chypre en 2013 : les dépôts non garantis ponctionnés.
À aucun moment on n’a conclu que « la banque » était un concept peu fiable. On a identifié des défaillances d’acteurs, et on a corrigé les règles.
C’est exactement ce que l’Europe a fait avec MiCA. Vous avez participé à ce travail. Le cadre existe, il est exigeant, et il fonctionne.
Des dizaines d’entreprises européennes ont investi des années et des millions pour s’y conformer : supervision, ségrégation des actifs clients, fonds propres, résilience opérationnelle.
Quand la présidente de la commission ECON met tout le secteur dans le même sac en une phrase, elle dit aux épargnants qu’être régulé ou non ne change rien. Le message qu’ils en retiennent n’est pas « méfiez-vous de la crypto », c’est « peu importe où vous allez ».
Et ils iront là où vos règles ne s’appliquent pas.
L’Europe a aujourd’hui le cadre crypto le plus solide au monde. C’est un avantage que les États-Unis et l’Asie regardent de près. Il mérite d’être défendu par ceux qui l’ont construit, pas affaibli dès qu’un acteur tombe.
Les cryptos et la fiabilité, une illustration.
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Fiabilité : Probabilité pour qu'une pièce primaire, un dispositif ou un équipement complet soit utilisé sans défaillance pendant une période de temps déterminée, dans des conditions opérationnelles spécifiées.
La défaillance ici, c'est Binance (Une Banque)
github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin
If only Binance had Withdrawal Protection 👀
Dear Borgers,
We've updated our Withdrawal Protection with a feature that you've asked.
Up until now, if you turned it on, it meant every crypto withdrawal from your SwissBorg account had to wait your full delay (which can be set from 1 to 180 days).
Great feature to protect you from scammers and wrench attacks.
‼️ However, in practice, it meant that your entire portfolio was virtually locked, and so even a small everyday transfer to an external wallet wasn't possible.
🛠️ So in response, we are enabling you to set an optional allowance.
Here is how it works:
🔓 Pick a currency, a rolling period (24 hours, 7 days or 30 days) and an amount
⚡Withdrawals and Smart Sends under it go out instantly
#️⃣ Anything above what's left waits the full delay, it's never split
🛡️ Tightening your settings applies instantly, loosening them waits your delay
That last rule is the whole point.
Nobody can force you to raise your allowance and drain the account on the spot.
Leave it at 0 and nothing changes.
In practice, say you've set your withdrawal protection to the max 180 days, your allowance to $1000, but your rolling period is 24 hours.
It means you can withdraw the set amount every 24 hours.
If you withdraw 10k instead, the 9000 above the allowance remains stuck for 180 days.
And if you want to increase the allowance, you'll need to wait for 180 days.
What I personally find awesome is that SwissBorg is increasingly offering features that you normally expect from a bank.
Except this time, YOU set the rules. 🫵
This is a new level of financial freedom we never had before.
Quick chart update!
Today is Fed day so expect volality and squeezes on both sides.
$BTC got back above 80k overnight and sits at 81.4k, but the push to 81.8k got sold.
Things might get spicy as we get close to the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC, with US inflation tomorrow
The bear case is a trap above.
@XBTkaz says around $180M in longs are trapped above 81k; fail to reclaim it and price rotates back to the lows, with 77-78k on the table.
@au_xbt sees the classic FOMC pattern: a low-volume grind up to 81.7-82k, then a sharp selloff once the meeting starts.
The bull case is structural.
@Sykodelic_ notes BTC has reclaimed its 1W 50 SMA and 1W Supertrend, and every time it did that (2010, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020, 2023) it went on to expand. Copper/gold is in a strong uptrend too, a risk-on sign. Even Kaz is 40% long and plans to add another 40% at 77-78k, and au says shorts keep piling in, so a squeeze is very possible.
Levels:
81.7-82k: pre-FOMC rally target
81k: reclaim it or rotate lower
80k: back above, still the pivot
79.4k: 24h low
77-78k: the sweep and add zone
Fun fact! $PEPE jumped +12.3% on reports Justin Sun has accumulated over $50M.
My takeaway:
One more push up, then a flush around the decision is the consensus path. The disagreement is only about whether that flush gets bought.
Dear Borgers,
We've updated our Withdrawal Protection with a feature that you've asked.
Up until now, if you turned it on, it meant every crypto withdrawal from your SwissBorg account had to wait your full delay (which can be set from 1 to 180 days).
Great feature to protect you from scammers and wrench attacks.
‼️ However, in practice, it meant that your entire portfolio was virtually locked, and so even a small everyday transfer to an external wallet wasn't possible.
🛠️ So in response, we are enabling you to set an optional allowance.
Here is how it works:
🔓 Pick a currency, a rolling period (24 hours, 7 days or 30 days) and an amount
⚡Withdrawals and Smart Sends under it go out instantly
#️⃣ Anything above what's left waits the full delay, it's never split
🛡️ Tightening your settings applies instantly, loosening them waits your delay
That last rule is the whole point.
Nobody can force you to raise your allowance and drain the account on the spot.
Leave it at 0 and nothing changes.
In practice, say you've set your withdrawal protection to the max 180 days, your allowance to $1000, but your rolling period is 24 hours.
It means you can withdraw the set amount every 24 hours.
If you withdraw 10k instead, the 9000 above the allowance remains stuck for 180 days.
And if you want to increase the allowance, you'll need to wait for 180 days.
What I personally find awesome is that SwissBorg is increasingly offering features that you normally expect from a bank.
Except this time, YOU set the rules. 🫵
This is a new level of financial freedom we never had before.
Because I spend wayyy too much time on X, I figured I would share a brief about what the KOLs I personally trust and follow think of the market.
Tomorrow, we have the FOMC meeting.
$BTC is stuck in a tight box around 80k.
Big buyers aren't waiting: Strive added 6,182 BTC to reach 43,000 (@coingecko), and BitMine bought another 10,452 ETH.
@FurkanCCTV checked all 91 Fed decisions since 2015: the days before are a coin flip, and a pause (90%+ priced in for Wednesday) has been the best setup for BTC 30 days later.
The bear case is a sweep first.
@XBTkaz expects the range to break down into 77-78k before FOMC and mark the local bottom there.
@au_xbt says spot buying got absorbed and resting bids were pulled about 1k lower, and expects another leg down around the Fed.
@EmperorBTC calls 80k imperative; fail to hold it and a 75k sweep is very probable.
@tradermatt's gut says 74k gets swept for the volume to push to 90k.
The bull case is the bigger picture.
@Sykodelic_ says the bull market is back and pullbacks are for buying, with ETH looking constructive too.
@tomcrypt0 points to the 2W EMA 9/18 crossing bullish, a signal that flashed before past bull runs. Even Kaz sees 88-90k after the sweep and is already 40% into a swing long.
Levels:
88-90k: upside target after a sweep
80.6k: old range low, must reclaim
80k: lost, still the line
79.3k: last 24h low
77-78k: the cluster everyone's watching
74-75k: the deep sweep
My takeaway: bears and bulls agree more than you'd think. Most want 77-78k tagged before the next leg up; the question is whether it happens before or after Wednesday.
Dear Borgers,
Tomorrow is FOMC day!
But we the decision is already priced in.
However, watch out for Thursday's US inflation print. It may be a volatile day.
The ECB and eurozone GDP land too.
@FurkanCCTV went through all 91 Fed decisions since 2015 and measured what Bitcoin did around each one:
📊 Days before the decision: a coin flip (BTC up 56% of the time vs 54% on a normal day)
🟢 30 days after a pause: +6.4% median
🔴 30 days after a hike: -4.4% median
According to @CMEGroup , the market prices over 90% odds of a pause tomorrow which is historically Bitcoin's best setup.
But a December hike is also priced in, so what the Market will watch what Warsh says tomorrow. His tone will dictate what the market move.
My plan for weeks like this:
- On the trading front, doing nothing and waiting for confirmation.
- On the investor front, Auto-Invest with a trigger order if the price goes below 78k.
What about you? Are you setting your orders before the Fed, or waiting to react?
joseph retweeted
Payward, NinjaTrader, Kraken, Bitnomial, FCM, DCO, DCM... namedropping is cool and all, but i think most people don't get how these entities are actually connected
made a diagram a couple months back showing how it all links together
tldr: Payward is the top-level parent company, and Kraken and xStocks sit under it
along with Bitnomial and NinjaTrader, which got acquired for one main reason: they already held DCM, DCO and FCM licenses, which let you issue and list futures, clear them in-house, and onboard clients with KYC
Payward, the parent company of Kraken, announced its intention to be the first CFTC-regulated deployer on HIP-3* markets. Payward will use Hyperliquid as the infrastructure layer to deploy perpetual futures markets for US clients. Subject to regulatory approval, Bitnomial, Payward’s CFTC-regulated DCM and DCO, would act as the HIP-3* deployer: creating, owning, and administering the markets and clearing and settling the contracts. If approved, NinjaTrader Clearing, Payward’s CFTC-registered FCM, would carry client accounts.
HIP-3 will support optional deployer configuration for permissioned markets in a future network upgrade. This set of additional deployer functionality is collectively called HIP-3*. At its core, HIP-3* activation involves an onchain allowlist managed by the deployer or its sub-deployers. The functionality is strictly additive to HIP-3; its use is optional and up to the deployer. Existing markets remain unchanged. The initial release is available on testnet, where specifications are preliminary and subject to change based on feedback.
Hyperliquid is a neutral infrastructure layer with the goal of supporting large parts of the financial system. HIP-3* gives deployers additional functionality to operate deployments consistent with the requirements applicable to them. As with HIP-3, HIP-3* deployers are independent operators who use Hyperliquid as the onchain infrastructure layer for their own markets, while retaining control and responsibility over their deployment.
I read crypto Twitter so you don't have to.
Every day I go through the KOLs I actually trust and boil it all down into one read: what X is saying about the market today.
$BTC lost 80k on Saturday for the first time in over a month, with @FurkanCCTV flagging more than $200M in longs liquidated. It wicked to 79.1k, bounced, and slipped back under 80k overnight. It's near 79.9k now. Big week ahead: Fed decision Wednesday, PCE and GDP Thursday, and over a third of the S&P 500 reporting.
The bears are patient.
@XBTkaz calls this a low-volume bleed that usually ends in a big move, leans toward a dump, and has bids at 77-78k and 75k, with a bottom window of Oct 28-30.
@au_xbt is still short and expects a "Black Monday" before shorts cover around Wednesday.
@Trader_XO says the momentum for higher prices was never there; he offloaded alts weeks ago and shorted them.
The bulls say it's just fear.
@Sykodelic_ notes BTC is only about 9% off its local high and still above every key weekly level (RSI 50, Supertrend, 50 SMA and EMA), none even retested yet, and expects upside within 7 days.
@CryptoWallSt_ opened new longs right at his level under 80k. Even Kaz has started a swing long from 80.1k.
Levels:
83.2k: the retest zone above
80k: lost, now resistance
79.1k: weekend low
77-78k: where the bids sit
75k: the gap below
My takeaway: nearly everyone is buying 77-78k; the bulls just think it gets skipped.
Reclaim 80k and the squeeze talk is back.
Lose 79.1k and 77k is next.
Dear Borgers,
This week is going to be interesting and it might be a good idea to keep cash available to either buy the dip if bitcoin:native loses support at $79.1k,
Or retest the $83.2 zone to potentially break it through which would indicate a change of structure.
On the weekly, things aren't looking good but there are some alts that are refusing to go down like zcash:native.
hyperliquid:native is also at a interesting level which over the past few months have been a strong level of support.
I intend to watch the market closely this week. I'm not positioned and I keep cash (I got paid last week and deposited my monthly allowance).
Stay tuned for the FOMC meeting on Wednesday!
GM Borgers,
Bitcoin lost $80k this weekend for the first time in over a month.
I thought I would check which SwissBorg names actually held up over the last 7 days:
🟢 $EDEL +16.5%
🟢 $ZEC +3.9%
🔴 $BTC -3.1%
🔴 $WLD -10.4%
🔴 $GTC -22.4%
Two things stand out:
1️⃣ Edel is the only listing I've covered that's still green from my call: $0.0273 on Sep 28, $0.0316 this morning, +16%.
Tokenised equities keep doing their thing.
2️⃣ Zcash went green on a red weekend.
Grayscale's Zcash ETF pulled in $41.1M last week, its biggest week of inflows since mid-September.
Privacy has real money behind it.
Honest update on the other side: WLD has flipped red since Friday and is now -14% from my Oct 8 call. GTC, top of the SwissBorg movers board last week at +52%, is -22% on the week.
The market is confusing right now and on the cusp of a big move.
I'm currently on the side line waiting for a confirmation to appear.
Everyone in 🇪🇺 not just French 🇫🇷 people must listen to this interview.
It's about debt, the new world ahead of us, geopolitics, and much more.
Thank you @Thinker_View for your work.
Nouvelle interview, soutenez nous sur Tipeee, on vous aime !
Black Bloc contre BlackRock, qui gagne ?
David Baverez [EN DIRECT] youtube.com/watch?v=mfxK8OWR…
![Black Bloc contre BlackRock, qui gagne ? David Baverez [EN DIRECT]](https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2115921769819406336/b4RkZyhn?format=jpg&name=800x419)
I read crypto Twitter so you don't have to.
Every day I go through the KOLs I actually trust and boil it all down into one read: what X is saying about the market today.
$BTC is chopping between 80.8k and 82.1k after Thursday's risk-off day, sitting near 81.5k this morning.
🦎 @coingecko's "red therapy" summed it up:
BTC -4.1%
ETH -5.4%
S&P -1.2%
gold -2.3%
silver -3.5%.
🐻 Still, BTC still held above 80k but the bears have the clearer plan:
@XBTkaz says the 84.4k liquidity got swept with a bearish retest; he wants a retest of 82.5-83.5k to squeeze leverage, then a "massive dump."
@tradermatt says the 4H needs a higher low here or 75k is on the table.
@The_JDK99: buyers are throwing everything at it and price won't budge.
🐮 But the bulls aren't giving up:
@Sykodelic_ calls it a mid-cycle correction, with BTC and total market cap still above every key moving average.
@CryptoWallSt_ notes Binance top traders are max long, even more than under 80k, which cuts both ways.
@au_xbt, who cut risk before the drop, now sees some bottom signals and says lower oil could spark a short squeeze, though the dip buying so far is retail, not institutions.
Levels:
84.4k: swept liquidity
82.5-83.5k: the retest zone
81.5k: the line
80.8k: yesterday's low
80k, then 75k
My takeaway: hold 81.5k and a squeeze into 83k is on. Lose 80.8k and the 75k crowd gets their shot.
GM Borgers,
Receipts time. Every listing I explain on here, I come back and check. No cherry-picking.
The five SwissBorg listings I covered in the last four weeks, priced from the hour I posted to this morning:
🟢 base:0xfb31f85a8367210b2e4ed2360d2da9dc2d2ccc95 (Sep 28): $0.0273 → $0.0320, +17%
🟢 ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 (Oct 8): $0.513 → $0.547, +7%
🔴 ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2 (Oct 9): $3.68 → $3.41, -7%
🔴 base:0xf9569cfb8fd265e91aa478d86ae8c78b8af55df4 (Oct 6): $0.0078 → $0.0061, -22%
🔴 ethereum:0xe172e9b6cfbeeb5593bdce3f077356fdb33af904 (Oct 1): $0.066 → $0.047, -30%
BTC is down 1-5% over the same windows.
2 green, 3 red. The two that held up sit on the strongest narratives right now: tokenised equities (Edel) and proof of human in the AI era (@worldcoinfnd).
The small caps took the hit as the market turned risk-off this week.
The one I'm watching closest is @Lighter_xyz. LIT ran hard earlier this week on the plan to file for a US CFTC license, then gave back about 8% in the last 24 hours with everything else.
And if you've been waiting to buy your first Bitcoin but red candles scare you, this is for you: our Spooktober vault:
1️⃣ Deposit $200 to a new SwissBorg account.
2️⃣ If BTC in the vault hits the take-profit, the gain is yours.
3️⃣ If it drops to the stop-loss, we refund your loss. 🎃
Have a great weekend everyone.
Spooktober is here, and it’s a Not-So-Scary Halloween at SwissBorg. 🎃
Ever wanted to buy your first Bitcoin, but worried the price might drop?
Start by depositing $200 to your new SwissBorg account. If Bitcoin in the special vault rises, the gain is yours. If it falls to a set level, we refund your loss.*
Your first Bitcoin, minus the fright.
New to SwissBorg? Watch how it works, then join us 👉 swissborg.com/content/en/not…
*Full terms on the page. For new accounts and first deposits only.
joseph retweeted
I’m starting to see @worldnetwork as a financial super app in the making.
With @worldmoney launching in September, the project is moving beyond the AI narrative that first put it on people’s radar.
World Money brings a lot to the table for users:
– A self-custodial financial super app available across 150+ countries.
– Core features: hold stablecoins across 8 currencies, send money by username, trade, earn yield through @Morpho (Earn), access Mini Apps (Kalshi, Credit…), plus Stripe + Apple Pay integration.
– A clearer separation between the World ID App and World Money.
– Growing on-chain activity, including active addresses and whale activity.
I see this as a major driver behind $WLD’s recent run. Meanwhile, @worldnetwork has also been shipping some serious developments:
– The launch of its World ID for Banking & Finance toolkit at Money2020.
– The lineup includes the World ID App, World ID for Zoom to fight deepfakes on video calls, now generally available and World ID for Agents, giving AI agents proof that a real human stands behind them.
– Design partners: Bain Capital, VanEck, Pantera Capital, OpenExchange, and Outtake.
– The goal: tackle AI fraud, fight deepfakes, and verify real humans in financial transactions.
That’s a massive step forward for World ID. With deepfake scams becoming a serious threat across banking apps, this is a problem that needs solving.
I see @worldnetwork growing into a major infrastructure player in payments and identity verification across finance. That’s why I’m bullish on a strong $WLD comeback.
On the TA side, $0.65 is the level I’m watching. If $WLD breaks out above it, I’d be looking for a move back toward $1.8-$2.
DYOR and NFA.
I read crypto Twitter so you don’t have to.
Every day I go through the KOLs I actually trust and boil it all down into one read: what X is saying about the market today.
$BTC tagged about 84.8k yesterday and then gave it all back in Asia. It's sitting near 81.8k this morning, down almost 2% on the day.
The mood has flipped from euphoric to cautious overnight. @The_JDK99 explains the move well: around 84.3k, big market buys were absorbed by passive sellers, the retest of the monthly VWAP went undefended, and trapped late longs fuelled the drop. @CryptoWallSt_ calls it a brutal trap. @Sykodelic_ sees the bright side: open interest is back to where it was at the 80k low, so the leverage is flushed.
The levels everyone is watching:
- 86–87k is @XBTkaz's short zone, and 87.2k is the untouched highs @tomcrypt0 flagged.
- 85.5k is where @XBTkaz expects one more push before a dump.
- 84.2–84.3k is the rejection, @SailorManCrypto's line in the sand and @The_JDK99's key high.
- 81.5–82k is what @Trader_XO says has to hold, along with the daily 12/21/25 EMAs.
- 80k is the local low and the OI reset level.
- 75k is the monthly FVG @XBTkaz still expects into month end or early November.
Alts: @Trader_XO thinks the short-covering rally is about to unwind much more, and @au_xbt has shorted the alts that were strongest. On the other side, @Sykodelic_ points to the monthly RSI on OTHERS/BTC crossing bullish. LIT was the standout, up 20% on Lighter's plan to file for a US CFTC license.
Macro: @TheShortBear has been sharing record tech selling from Goldman's prime book and 5:1 shorts versus longs this month, which is fuel for a squeeze if earnings surprise. Iran strike headlines and the upcoming FOMC are the wildcards.
Where they split: @Sykodelic_ still targets $100k by year end and calls this a healthy reset. @XBTkaz and @Trader_XO see a top forming, and @au_xbt expects chop until the FOMC.
My takeaway: 81.5–82k is the line. Hold it and this was a shakeout. Lose it and 80k, then 75k, come into play.
