Zag 🇨🇦

What’s wrong? I keep buying but the price keeps going down. $CIFR earnings Monday

$NVDA All bro had to do was keep it in his pants.

$CIFR Cheap shares. I think the sellers are exhausted. I saw the bounce off the lows yesterday on big volume. First HPC lease revenue is in the books. I like that the Barber Lake extension keeps the total contracted revenue around 16.6B from the AWS and Google backed campuses. Texas governor @GinaHinojosaTX working with @rftylerpage to keep the pipeline. But this does not even touch the campuses already under construction. Power is scare and we have it. $WULF $HUT $APLD

Good news

$QQQ $SPY $SOXX What do you think next week will happen? Will we continue to recover or drop further?

Hey I’m sick of the red semi market. When is it back to the normal valuation of future p/e without the ai scare? $MU $CIFR $SKHY $COHR

Everything so green on aftermarket you’d never know it was a flattening of all semi stocks yesterday.

$CIFR -20% today on the Texas governor result. It feels bad. But it’s worth separating what's actually in the moratorium's path from what isn't. NOT in its path: Cipher's contracted revenue sits on three campuses already under construction.
• Black Pearl — AWS, 300 MW, ~$5.5B/15 yr, rent already flowing
• Barber Lake — Fluidstack (Google backstop) + a second 10-yr term direct with an AI lab, ~$9.1B/20 yr
• Stingray — AWS, 70 IT MW, ~$2B/15 yr, steel going up, rent targeted Apr 2027 That's ~$16.6B of base-term rent, each campus fully project-financed through completion. Hinojosa has said the pause is for new permits, not projects already under construction. IN its path: timing on the uncontracted pipeline — Colchis (1 GW), 1.6 GW of PCLR sites, the on-site gas plan. Delay, not destruction. The land, interconnects and ERCOT classifications don't vanish. Texas has been under a full TCEQ data-center permit freeze since Sept 21 under Abbott. The stock has traded inside a moratorium for 6 weeks. Hinojosa's version extends it until the Legislature passes rules — the session runs Jan 12 to May 31. The Senate stays R 20-11, so a permanent ban needs Republican votes. It’s still 2.7B market cap against $16.6B of contracted rent from Amazon and Google-backed tenants.

Are we back? $CIFR @rftylerpage keep up the good work!

Hey $CIFR Did you finally wake up?

Overall $CIFR earnings were good. No bad surprises. First HPC lease revenue just hit ($5.9M from Black Pearl) and contracted backlog is now $16.6B across ~700 MW. Barber lake is starting rent. Whole AI data center is suffering. A really surprising amount of deleveraging in this profitable sector.

$CiFR barber lake renting‼️ ‼️ ‼️ $CIFR earnings call, what actually got said: • CEO: "we just delivered the RFS notice to Barber Lake for the first 51 MW of critical IT" — found out this morning. Closing line: "we are now collecting rent also at Barber Lake" • Black Pearl: 18 IT MW live, delivered early because the tenant asked for it • CFO: all three campuses "funded through completion," $724M unrestricted cash left at the parent • 3 of the 4 tightest-trading bonds among ~25 AI-infra high-yield deals are Cipher's. Credit market is voting with spreads • Colchis 1 GW: multiple top-tier tenants in diligence, final ERCOT classification December. CEO: "a real catalyst for an uplift in our valuation" • ~1 GW of on-site-gas data center leases in advanced talks, yields in line with grid sites • Barber Lake overrun put on the table: ~$409M change orders + $350–400M inflation. Cipher ate $359M for the 10-year extension, half the rest comes back as rent, yield-on-cost back to ~15% • On the water deal: "Together with Fluidstack and Anthropic." Colorado City is Barber Lake. Draw your own conclusion • Tyler, unprompted: "we are not a neocloud." Capital goes into buildings, not chips Takeaway: the bad news was fully quantified and the good news was buried in Q&A. Two campuses paying rent as of today, three builds funded, 1 GW lease on deck. Market still pricing the construction site.

$CIFR earnings out

$cifr We will find out tomorrow whether this was the best or worst buy

The ritual tonight $CIFR

Signs that $CIFR earnings will come out good: •No postponement. Date was set Oct 12, call is 8am ET Monday. Companies that are about to disappoint find reasons to move the call. •No pre-announcement 8-K. •$850M convert priced Oct 14, settled Oct 16, two weeks after quarter end, with an offering memo. Signs that earnings will be garbage: •The market has determined anything AI is worthless

Why I think $CIFR is relatively undervalued 1. What’s actually being sold this week The AI selloff is about capex and repricing: $AMZN’s cash burn hit a record, $GOOGL’s FCF went negative, $MSFT’s capex came in light. 2. The names that should get hurt are the neoclouds: $CRWV, $NBIS, $IREN. They borrow at 12-15%, buy GPUs that depreciate in 5 years, and rent them to 2-3 customers. 3. The names DO NOT apply to powershell companies ($CIFR, $WULF, $HUT, $APLD). They owns land and power. The tenant brings the chips. The lease runs 15-20 years. 4. $CIFR has ~$11.4B contracted revenue, 700 MW, 3 campuses: - Black Pearl: 300 MW, 15-yr, $5.5B, $AWS direct. First capacity delivered Aug, 2 - Barber Lake: 300 MW, 20-yr, ~$9B, Fluidstack with $GOOGL guaranteeing rent. Halls delivering Q4-Q1. - Stingray: $AWS, fully funded at a 6.0% coupon. 5. $CIFR value of pipeline is virtually 0. This is the ~3.3 GW of Texas pipeline across 11 sites. 6. $CIFR stumbles with - Barber Lake construction and overrun for budget $2.16B → ~$3B on tenant design changes, but gets lease extension for additional 10 years and +$5B contract value. - Oct 16: $850M zero-coupon convert to fund it. 7. After all of this, look at Market cap per contracted MW: Sep 30: $CIFR $9.4M · $WULF $8.8M · $HUT $11.4M Oct 30: $CIFR $4.4M · $WULF $7.0M · $HUT $7.4M Parity a month ago. 40% discount today. $CIFR back to $WULF’s multiple is ~$12-13/share. Consensus is $28. Cantor’s cut target is $19. This assume $CIFR can deliver as expected on Nov 2 call.

The AI beatings will continue until morale improves