Tweets are my own!
Joined April 2009
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Kalshi and Polymarket are 7 points apart on Jensen leaving Nvidia this week, and it isn't because of the news. It's because of the rules.
Kalshi 'leaves before Nov 14': 43¢. Polymarket 'resignation or removal announced by Nov 13': 50.5%. Kalshi needs him to actually walk out, while Poly pays on the announcement alone.
Last night Yahoo Finance had Poly's Nov 13 market at 72%. This morning it's 50.5%, while Poly's year-end market sits at 76.5%, up 60 points in a day. The market thinks he's out, just not this week. Who's wrong?
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Spurs went from 91¢ to 37¢ on Kalshi in about 40 minutes.
Then they won.
Black magic is right.
teapaw.org/xrmchaz/status/2120717…
wemby 30 ball
dylan harper double double
fox moses performance
survived bulls black magic magnet ball
spurs 10 game win streak
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Lakers were 85.5¢ on Kalshi at 7 AM and never traded below 85¢ during the game.
Won 123-112. Seven straight.
The chippiness was the only thing in doubt.
teapaw.org/LADEig/status/21207102…
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Boston was 55¢ at tip on Kalshi.
PG's points line: 17.5. He scored 36 in 30 minutes.
Jaylen Brown's line: 22.5. He scored 13.
Teague's face is the right reaction.
teapaw.org/Thechat101/status/2120…
Jeff Teague reacts to Paul George taking over the Boston Celtics vs sixers game . And they say that jaylen brown didn’t play well because he was too thirsty for the matchup vs Jayson Tatum
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A ring you press and talk to. Natura just launched Interface — it remembers, it works, and it looks out for you.
Would you actually wear an AI ring, or is this just another gadget?
🎥 @carloAI
teapaw.org/carloAI/status/2120246…
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Greg Rousseau, before every series: "Three and out, takeaway, get the ball back to the best player in the world." That's it. How much of a Bills bet is just trusting the D to get it back to Allen? 🎥 @SportsCenter @gregrousseau
teapaw.org/SportsCenter/status/21…
"Before we go on the field, three and out takeaway. Get the ball back to [Josh Allen]."
Bills linebacker Greg Rousseau joins @notthefakeSVP and speaks on the defense's mentality when taking the field 🏈
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Dan Orlovsky had the Vikings working the phones before the 4th quarter was even over 😂 Trade deadline is today. Who's the realistic QB target for Minnesota? 🎥 @PatMcAfeeShow @danorlovsky7
teapaw.org/PatMcAfeeShow/status/2…
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13 favorites on Sunday's NFL slate. 12 won. The only one that lost: New England, 60.5¢ on Kalshi and −170 at DraftKings that morning. Lost by 18. Dave's face is the Brier score.
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Kalshi priced this game at 72¢ Chicago all day and never blinked. Then these two combined for 6 INTs and it came down to a field goal at 0:00. Markets: calm. QBs: not.
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The books cut the Monday night total 3 points with Wentz in for Kyler Murray, and the money says they cut it too far.
Bills @ Vikings opened 46.5 and is now 43.5. One betting-split sample has 87% of the dollars and 69% of the tickets on the Over. Kalshi has Buffalo at 62%, and DraftKings has Bills -3.
The Vikings' Under is 6-1 this season. Fade the move or ride it?
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Steve Kerr had no words. Saturday morning’s prop sheet had 27.5. Curry finished with 41—13.5 above that snapshot, after the line had already risen from 25.5
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NYG @ PHI is the biggest Kalshi/Poly vs DraftKings gap left on the Week 9 board.
DK no-vig: PHI 40.0% (+140)
Kalshi mid: 37.5¢
Polymarket: 37.5¢
~2.5 pts. Exchanges agree with each other; the book is the outlier.
Yesterday’s BUF@MIN gap already converged. This one hasn’t.
Let’s see if it does at some point
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TB @ CHI (SNF): the sportsbook walked all the way to the exchange.
DK CHI no-vig: 63.1% opener (−192) → 68.1% (−245) → 71.4% (−290) → 72.2% now (−305)
Kalshi CHI: sitting 71–72¢ all week (mid 71.5, last 72)
Poly: 71.5¢
Spread: −3.5 → −6
Bucs just blanked ATL 16–0 with 0 completions and 324 rush yards. Season: 168.6 rush YPG vs 131.4 net pass. CHI is pricing the pass game that didn’t show up.
Let’s see how it plays out
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The market dumped 11 points on the Heat overnight and I want the receipt.
Polymarket has Miami at 28.5% (down 11 in a day). Kalshi went Warriors 63¢ to 72¢ with ~238K contracts in 24h, Heat 38¢ to 30¢. Sportsbook median on Golden State is about 71%.
Double-digit move into tip. What broke that I missed?
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What % do you give the Jags tonight?
Kalshi has Jacksonville at 81-82¢, Polymarket 81.5%, sportsbooks around 80.5%. The spread opened BAL -4.5 and is now JAX -10, and BetQL has 76% of the money (71% of tickets) on Jacksonville to cover. On Kalshi, ~550K contracts traded in the Ravens market in 24h while they sit at 18¢.
Drop a number under 80 if you think this market's too sure.
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The market is buying Man United at Old Trafford tonight, and I don't get it.
Kalshi has United 42¢ to 45¢ in 24h. Polymarket is at 45%, up 4 pts. This is a side winless in 9, 17th in the PL, with Opta giving them a 22% relegation shot.
Weirder: more Kalshi volume traded on Roma (522K) than United (434K), and the price still moved toward United.
Who's paying 45¢ for this team? Tell me what I'm missing.
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One thumb moved a TNF line 12 points, and I think the market still isn't done.
Jaguars @ Ravens opened BAL -4.5 at DraftKings. It's now JAX -7.5, and Borgata is at -8.5. Kalshi has the Jags at 80¢ (42¢ a day ago), Polymarket 79%.
Is -8.5 too much for a team that just got Lamar's backup hurt too, or not enough? Give me your number.
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The market buried the Ravens a week too early.
Polymarket had Baltimore at 46.5% to win the AFC North a week ago. After one blown 13-0 lead to the Bengals, they're at 22.5%, and Kalshi has them at 22-23¢. Cincy is now the favorite at 42% (45-46¢ on Kalshi).
Lamar is back today at Buffalo. Books have Bills -3, and Kalshi has the Ravens at 38-39¢ to win.
A 24-point crash on a game Lamar didn't play in. Tell me I'm wrong.
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The hottest inflation print in months, and the prediction markets got LESS hawkish. Make it make sense.
December Fed hike: Kalshi went from 77-78¢ before Thursday's PCE print to 69-70¢ now. Polymarket went from 76.5% to 70%. FedWatch snapshots after PCE (3.6%) and GDP (3.4%) were showing 82-86%.
That's a 12-15 point gap. I think the prediction markets are the ones that are wrong. Who's taking the other side?
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