Mapping the changing global order. Incompetent leaders. Competing interests. Sleepwalking toward a global war by 2029-30. Uncomfortable truths | Independent
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The US-Iran war looks set to demolish far more than it appears to.
The longer the US stays in this, the higher the odds this stops being a US-Iran war and becomes a Gulf-wide one. Not escalation that threatens Washington or Tehran. Escalation that consumes the entire region.
The GCC economies are already projected to contract by as much as 8.5% this year and that's before this war spreads to the other members of the region.
Wars that don't end on schedule rarely stay the same size. They occupy more geography and more actors, not less. Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Yemen, Oman - every one of them sits close enough to be pulled in, and none of them are large enough to absorb it without breaking.
It may not be in the very near future but if this drags on, the endgame won't be as simple as US or Iran losing. It's the entire Gulf burning down, taking the global economy with it.
That may sound like overthinking or worst-case scenario building. Right now, it's reading closer to a forecast.
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The headlines say Trump is weighing a ground operation.
I don't think he would commit US troops to it. Not for lack of will. The math is brutal either way. American casualties on Iranian soil would be politically unrecoverable. Four months from midterms, with his approval near the lowest point, a ground war is the one move Republicans can't absorb.
Listen to what he actually said: "We have other people who will do the ground campaign for us".
The Kurdish option was floated back in March, but it never materialized. Turkey killed it before it started. Arming and activating the Kurds is still on the table as a way to tie up IRGC forces at the border. But if not Kurds, it's more likely intelligence assets already inside Iran.
Iran's own supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, hasn't shown his face or used his voice once since March. CIA and Mossad have reportedly been trying to confirm if he's even functionally in charge.
The US was aiming for full regime change as part of the initial plan - partially achieved. Now, with negotiations stalled and Iran showing no sign of folding, the US may aim to dismantle more of the IRGC's command layer through these same assets. That may be the only path left for the US to save face and renegotiate from a position of authority.
That's a quieter war than the one making headlines. It's also the only one that fits the timeline Trump is actually running against.
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Lithuania is moving to universal conscription for young men in 2032, President Nausėda says.
Annual intake is set to rise from just over 5,000 to ~7,500. Service for women stays voluntary.
Next year, it intends to allocate ~€4.8 billion, or 5% of the country's GDP, to defense.
Israel's Shin Bet launches investigation into suspected Muslim Brotherhood funding to influence Arab voter turnout in Israeli elections.
Qatar is repeatedly cited as the prime suspect, with some channels previously linked to terror financing.
Findings requested within a week.
An Armenian parliamentary session descended into a mass brawl between ruling party and opposition lawmakers.
The clash began after a ruling party MP mocked an opposition leader's family over proposal to establish a “ministry to satisfy all women.”
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down on Feb 7, 2027.
Lagarde is leaving her term at the ECB nine months early.
Is she planning to return to French politics ahead of the April 2027 presidential election?
The World Bank now estimates that nearly half of Pakistanis, about 48%, live below $4.20 a day.
That’s up from about 45% in 2018-19.
Pakistan accounts for about 48% of the entire region’s poor at that threshold.
When half a nation is poor, who fills the gap the state leaves?
Liz Truss, former PM of the UK: “It doesn’t matter who you put in Downing Street, they’re not actually in charge of what’s happening.”
She earlier said that a shadowy global elite led by the central bankers control all senior politicians.
Pakistan has barred Taiwanese airlines from its airspace, citing the One China policy.
It’s the first country to do so, and it goes further than China itself which still lets Taiwanese carriers overfly.
Taiwan has no direct flights to Pakistan, so the ban hits overflights.
Taiwan says more than 50 Chinese navy & coast guard vessels are operating from Japan to Philippines.
34 are navy warships, including the carrier Liaoning.
Joseph Wu, head of Taiwan’s National Security Council, called the threat to Taiwan, Japan & Philippines “obvious.”
UK Budget announces another £10 Billion for Ukraine.
Same Budget: UK defence spending to reach 3% of GDP by 2030, 3.5% by 2035.
Somehow the UK doesn’t have the money to bolster its own defence readiness, but finds enough to burn on a futile war.
Is this a priorities problem?
UKMTO reports a vessel on fire in the Strait of Hormuz, 9 nautical miles north of Khasab, Oman.
The status of the crew is unknown.
Iran says it’s preparing for a “zero red lines” war with US.
An Iranian adviser told the next conflict will last longer & spread wider than US expects.
Another official threatened Gulf oil facilities, undersea cables and AI data centres across 7 countries.
Who blinks first?
Netanyahu announced resumption of war with Iran:
“Israel has a once-in-a-lifetime historic opportunity, together with our partner President Trump, to eliminate the existential Iranian threat. Nothing should distract us from that task.”
France’s Socialist Party has proposed granting legal status to ~400,000 illegal immigrants.
The National Assembly is scheduled to vote on granting amnesty on Nov 19.
If anything, it would encourage 400k more to enter France. After recent protests, does French public want this?
Putin has again invited Zelensky to Moscow for direct talks, with “all necessary conditions” including his safety, according to Kremlin.
Norway’s PM & Finland’s President reportedly told Putin that Zelensky wants to meet him.
Chances like this don’t come often. Will he take it?
Trump has warned Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense war against Iran after midterms (WSJ).
Data shows US military has already spent over $47 billion on Iran war, ~25% above DoD's July estimate (Reuters).
Meanwhile, a Patriot defense system is being moved to Israel.
Canada is fast-tracking Pacific Links, a 1M-barrel-a-day oil pipeline to Asia to depend less on US, which buys ~90% of its oil exports.
The pipeline would double west-coast export capacity. First oil: 2032 at the earliest.
Trump’s tariffs & Iran war possibly pushed the shift.
Finnish President Stubb and Norwegian PM Støre held a phone call with Putin.
The call was initiated by the European leaders on a potential Ukraine peace deal.
“The conversation was frank & substantive. Ending the war requires direct dialogue,” Stubb said.
Two men named Mohmed Abdulkarim and Nouman Essghir, both aged 24, have been charged under the National Security Act over the RAF Fairford plot in the UK.
Image is of the suspected terror cell arrested near RAF Fairford in Sept.
The UK Defence Secretary says Britain must be ready to “fight and win” a war within a little over 1000 days.
Spending targets:
> 2.5% of GDP by 2027
> 3% in the next parliament
> 3.5% by 2035
The defence plan already has a £4.7bn funding gap.
Is 1000 days a plan, or a warning?
While Europe is worried about winter, remember von der Leyen's strategic solution: “The cheapest energy is the one you don’t use.”
> EU gas storage: ~74.6%, lowest since records began
> Target: 80%; Netherlands declared will miss it
EU’s plan: hope it’s mild. Wishful thinking?