Seems to depict Borr Prospector 5 sinking off Gabon this night.

So many big brain macro narratives to explain prices, when the reality is that none (very few) of the leading Chinese companies are showing good numbers into 2027, and that is the main issue. The internet names are a disaster. Baba, tencent, jd, kuaishou, tme, meituan etc etc no one has any idea what NI is next year. Plus their #1 competitor is unlisted and wealthier than the rest of them. Bad set up. The consumer names keep showing deceleration, from Xiaomi to BYD to Geely to Trip to Anta to Lining to baijiu to Labubus to Proya to pet foods etc etc. The hardware export guys keep getting hit with export restriction regulations on both sides, many are showing Q3 deceleration from Q2, and people question why pay 60x PE peaking earnings for a cyclical when memory is at 10x PE. The hardware local guys are getting margin contraction from tight end customers (many times SOEs) like for Naura or delayed tenders like with Nari in power equipment or mindray in medtech. Similar with non biotech pharma with vbp. CATL, the last of the poster boys after Tencent and Moutai, shows up this week with revenue deceleration. SOEs like renewables and telecoms under pressure from the government, tariffs down, investment up, margins down. Fintech under siege, from Futu to online lenders. HKEX at 52w lows. Real estate and solar ded. Yes, there are places to make money, biotech and pharma services is one this year, SOE banks is another, HK landlords, old school utilities, shipbuilding... Trading the AI compute names... but it is very niche to grab any real global flows, no one outside China can be bothered with that (rightly so). The US can afford to have 60% of the index 20% below 52w highs, because the rest carries the index, and the leading companies make money.

Dinner with an exec/friend at a large national property management company tonight. This person oversees ~150k apartments; access to an insane amount of data. Current multifamily market in most of the country is worse than S&L, .com bust, or the GFC. Worst they’ve seen. Class A mostly fine, decent rent growth. However: - credit scores at class A have gone down meaningfully over the past 3 years. - more people are paying rent via credit card. - average bank account balance noticeably lower than even 2 years ago - class A tenants stretched thin, living beyond their means. 20k comes in, 20k goes out every month. - starting to see these renters move down a tier Class B: - simply too many apartments, we built too much new stuff. Ripple effect is enormous. - fewer renters tomorrow than today. Same store foot traffic noticeably down year over year. Some markets down 40-50% - considering dropping rents below $700 a month on some 1beds in major southern markets. Class C: - looking at degrading NOI. Rents aren’t growing for a long time, but expenses keep creeping up - more renters are one missed paycheck away from disaster than they can remember seeing in decades - tenants aren’t paying rent because they simply don’t have it - wage growth has not kept up Lenders: - some major investment funds, household names, haven’t paid their mortgages in 2-3 years. Banks won’t foreclose because “X is a big client.” Mexican standoff. - a roof leak gets ignored, becomes water damage, then mold, then a down building. Buildings are rapidly deteriorating as some owners choose cash preservation over funding losses. - number of pre-foreclosure and REO deals is the highest as a % of total units they can recall. - data providers know it’s bad, but they’re paid to sell optimism to owners/lenders. So every forecast is “it will probably get a little better next year maybe” and that gets regurgitated at investment committees all over. I asked “how do you think this ends?” “Not sure. My gut says slowly then suddenly, and things will get really bad. Been doing this 40 years, you can feel it in the air. But, there’s a chance it’s just a decade of tolerable pain. I’m praying for that.”

People think the Japanese are very efficient because of all of the cute little convenience store nonsense items they see online that are innovative, but in reality their entire society is propped up by a series of incredibly retarded rules that make doing anything a chore. I had my own encounter with that recently and I’m not even in Japan, but I was dealing with a Japanese company called Muji. (Let me vent ffs) I was moving and I wanted a new kitchen table. Saw one online at Muji I loved. “You can’t buy it online. You have to go to the store.” Weird but ok. Went to the store. Saw the table. “May I buy this table?” “ahhh no is not possiburu” “what” “oh hueheheueh aahhhh yuû musst submittu formu.” Had to sit down with the lady as she filled out a paper order form for the table. She then had to send it to the warehouse in Japan, and the warehouse only reads these paper order forms on Fridays, for some reason. Whatever, I’ll trust the process. After the fork is submitted I get nothing. No tracking number, no order number nada, just my receipt. Wait 3 weeks, hear absolutely nothing about the status of my table and have no way of directly contacting the warehouse. Have to go back to the store to ask for an update. “oh ahhhhhhhhh *weird Japanese sucking air noise they do* so sorry so sorry prease patience” Another week goes by. Call the store again. “ah はい ! taburu withu Nippon Express now. They will carr u soonu!” Days later, finally get a call from Nippon Express. They had my table. “We can deliba taburu in 2 weeks!” “Wait… It hasn’t shipped yet?” “No, it’s here :)” “Here where?” “In local warehousu (gives address that was literally 10 minutes away).” “So you have my table here in my city, 10 minutes away from my literal house, but you can’t deliver it for two more weeks?” “はい. Must schedule. :)” “Can I just come get it myself? I can literally have a delivery company come get it right now.” “いいえ Is not possiburu :(“ So I had to wait two more weeks to get the table that was around the corner. Then, on the day of delivery, the drivers (two Japanese guys), brought the boxes into the lobby before reviewing their paperwork, only to find I may not have responded to one of the many confirmation emails they sent, so they might not be able to deliver the table because they lacked my permission to do so. The table which was in my lobby at that very moment. The table I had scheduled to be there. The table I bought.

When the whole timeline is in a drawdown but you already drew down earlier this year so your current draw down is much smaller draw from the down than the draw down that every down draw is drawing from