Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal. 60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage. *Not Investment Advice* Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!
SW Florida
Joined April 2022
- Tweets17.6K
- Following1.8K
- Followers6.8K
- Likes35K
Pinned Tweet
Have said this downturn (or whatever you want to call it) will essentially be a 'white collar recession'.
To date, layoffs have been almost entirely in WC workforce which is UNIQUE in 🇺🇸 History.
All previous slowdowns/recessions have started in BC workforce & bled into WC.
Are you too expensive?
Are you too human?
👇
I used to say:
Don’t worry about ageism. (so many posts and videos on this) I helped 55+ land great jobs all the time.
I don’t say that anymore.
The last 18 months have been brutal. People with 15–25 years at one company? CUT.
I'll call it for what it is:
• They make too much
• They’re not AI-native
• They lead people... now replaced by dashboards
That’s the new layoff filter.
The stats are just as brutal:
- Avg job hunt at 55+? 26 weeks
- Avg pay cut? 11%
- Many never recover... forced into part-time “retirement”
HR’s seriously broken.
Recruiting? Mostly useless.
I’ve seen the best people erased like they never mattered.
If you’re not scared yet, you’re not paying attention.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Iran Signals Rare Flexibility Toward US In Talks With Mecca Pact Representatives zerohedge.com/geopolitical/m…
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
I've been on an endless loop:
Almost none of these people will file for an 'unemployment claim' & show up in the U/E stats
Economists on here + far & wide will study that U/E # CLOSELY & explain to us that the job market is IN BALANCE & HEALTHY
But alas, it's the worst WC job
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
2025 job growth was revised from 1.2 million to 116,000.
A 90% haircut.
2024 got cut 44% too.
I said on Sunday that hiring is what's stalling. Turns out it stalled a lot earlier than anyone reported.
And this is us payroll- this is why I don’t trust the numbers that come out. I’m already seeing the real deal quarters before the revisions. Data is beautiful.
2026…. well I think we all know how this is going.
The ‘headline’ numbers don’t tell the full story. The info I hear from the executives I work with. I hear the true insights- h*ll, I help them figure out what to do next career wise and sometimes just advise on the company growth... So I know what is really happening, and these numbers- DAMN.
When you look at the composition of job gains—what industries are they in? How many are temporary or part-time roles? Are we seeing growth in strategic positions that indicate long-term stability, or just seasonal hiring to bolster short-term metrics?
This is where executives need to pay attention. This is what I help executives with. Growth on paper doesn’t always translate to a stronger bottom line.
I’d argue it’s not just about employment numbers but about the quality of those roles. If the job market shifts too much towards low-skill positions, it can signal underlying issues in economic health and corporate investment trends.
#leadership #consulting #jobsreport #labormarket #Employment
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
SAUDI ARABIA REPORTEDLY OFFERS HOUTHIS $1 BLN IN IRAN-BROKERED DEAL TO HALT ATTACKS – ISRAEL HAYOM
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Remember the recent US meeting with Russia.
On top of todays meeting with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.
Things are moving.
No attack these past 2 weekends despite strong and weird insider looking flows. This weekend Benjamin is being denied attacks by his military while elections turn against him.
Things are being put in place that don't make sense if you were to attack.
If the US was about to attack and help the Saudis in regards to the Houthis, why would they offer $1b today?
If the US was about to attack, why wouldn't they do so in front of midterms to make it look like the nuclear threat is neutralized? Why not do it to help Benjamin?
A lot of things are happening and almost none look like actual escalation.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
$MSFT offers 60,000 employees a voluntary exit.
60K Y’all!!
First time this has ever been offered at Microsoft and it will affect employees in India, The United States, Canada, and the UK at level 70 or below…
Employees find out in a few hours if they are being targeted for this.
This just makes me think that H127 layoffs sound intense. Is this a pre-layoff round?
Also makes me wonder if they changed some scheduled layoffs due to be called out by @VP. Peace offering? 🤔 Timing is just interesting.
More to come.
$MSFT Microsoft's job cuts aren't done, and Xbox is where to watch next.
Asha Sharma is reportedly planning three more rounds: this month, November and January. 1,868 jobs are gone against a 3,200 target, so roughly 1,300 more are coming.
Spreading cuts across a whole year is a choice. It keeps the margin story moving and leaves everyone who's left waiting. I'm watching for the October round.
I own 3 different Seattle RBs in my main League.
I keep checking on each so much that this app now feeds me endless Seattle content like I'm Stone Gossard.
If Seattle doesn't start running my RB inside the 5 (Wilson tonight), I'm coming to town and reopening CHOP.
#freeWilson
Alot of the Fantasy Bros on this app called for drafting Charbonnet & Jordyn Tyson if your League had IR spots.
The Charbs & Jadarian Price combo was pretty cheap to pair w/Jahmyr Gibbs IMO. I did.
Then the Price injuries & ×€
I own 3 different Seattle RBs in my main League.
I keep checking on each so much that this app now feeds me endless Seattle content like I'm Stone Gossard.
If Seattle doesn't start running my RB inside the 5 (Wilson tonight), I'm coming to town and reopening CHOP.
#freeWilson
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
AI is shrinking the need for middle management
I am seeing it with my own eyes. I’m hearing it from others. And you can see it in the layoff numbers
If you’re in middle management, go figure out how to be closer to the work. And get more technical. Fast
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
The point of no return by Richard von Mises is worth reading:
"A state becomes almost unreformable when the majority of the population is financially or structurally dependent on the state (state employees, civil servants, recipients of subsidies, grants, or transfer payments, etc.). As soon as those who net benefit from or are supported by the state outnumber those who do not, the system blocks reforms, since the majority votes out of self-interest for the preservation or expansion of state services."
Does this sound familiar? Some European countries, France, Belgium, Finland are already way beyond that point, closely followed by Germany, Spain, Austria and Italy. It works for a while, as long as markets buy more sovereign debt at reasonable interest rates. The party ends when they stop though. For France, they stopped this month, Belgium will be next.
The longer the socialist illusion persists, the more painful the inevitable cuts and adjustments will be. It’s pure arithmetic. Good luck Europe, good luck Euro. Buckle up, it won’t be pretty.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
a very simple solution to virtually every problem would be to stop allowing people who live off taxpayer money to vote
anyone whose entire livelihood depends on the government taking money from other people will always vote for a government that takes more money
we’ve built a system where people can literally vote to give themselves more of other people’s money
the conflict of interest is beyond ridiculous and if you remove the incentive you remove the problem
The point of no return by Richard von Mises is worth reading:
"A state becomes almost unreformable when the majority of the population is financially or structurally dependent on the state (state employees, civil servants, recipients of subsidies, grants, or transfer payments, etc.). As soon as those who net benefit from or are supported by the state outnumber those who do not, the system blocks reforms, since the majority votes out of self-interest for the preservation or expansion of state services."
Does this sound familiar? Some European countries, France, Belgium, Finland are already way beyond that point, closely followed by Germany, Spain, Austria and Italy. It works for a while, as long as markets buy more sovereign debt at reasonable interest rates. The party ends when they stop though. For France, they stopped this month, Belgium will be next.
The longer the socialist illusion persists, the more painful the inevitable cuts and adjustments will be. It’s pure arithmetic. Good luck Europe, good luck Euro. Buckle up, it won’t be pretty.
While on the subject of eggs, if you plan to have kids, your lady should be loading up on 🥚.
My wife, who has a science background, knew about everything that's gone mainstream well before it's time.
She used to talk about her & the kids getting enough choline.
I was UNAWARE!
My wife is out of town w/the kids for a sports tournament this
They won't go near the eggs at a classic 'free' hotel breakfast
She not only BYOE (Bring your own eggs) she brought ingredients & a crock pot to make porridge in the room!
A porridge party was poppin' this mornin'
The scrambled eggs at a hotel breakfast are 19% water, and they're dyed.
A lot of hotels and cafeterias pour them from a carton of Papetti's Breakfast Blend. The spec sheet reads whole eggs, 19% water, then under 2% of salt, xanthan gum, citric acid, annatto color and natural butter flavor. Papetti's is part of Michael Foods, one of the biggest egg processors in the country.
Every ingredient has a job on a steam table. Xanthan gum holds the added water in the egg so it doesn't weep into the pan. Citric acid keeps the eggs from turning gray or green under a heat lamp. Annatto puts back the yolk color the water washed out. The butter flavor is there because nobody is going to add butter. The carton keeps for 98 days in the cooler.
The plain version from the same company is whole eggs, whey, skim milk, xanthan and citric acid, with almost no added water and half the sodium.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Bring on your dirtiest Canadian jr mining shit-cos!! It’s suddenly a bull mkt in BC🇨🇦
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
We determined that $MRNA covid vaccines were in fact correlated with myocarditis risk…That was a 2 vaccine series. 1 antigen. 0.05mg each dose.
Intismeran is a 9 vaccine series, up to 34 antigens, and a *1mg* dose each. 90x higher total dose in the series.
We are totally sure there is nothing to see here safety wise? Hmmm
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
An interesting interview with Fadahossein Maleki, a member of Iran’s Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, published by Tabnak, offers some insights into the diplomatic efforts currently underway.
- Russia, Qatar and Pakistan are reportedly working through parallel diplomatic channels to bring Iran back to the negotiating table and prevent another regional war.
- Russia: According to Maleki, Lavrov conveyed to Tehran the contents of a message from Putin to Trump supporting a return to the Islamabad Memorandum. However, Maleki also expressed some distrust of Moscow, particularly in light of recent Russian-American contacts.
- Strait of Hormuz: Perhaps the most interesting revelation concerns a Russian proposal for a new arrangement involving Iran, Russia and China in the management of the Strait. The idea could be discussed at foreign minister and head-of-state level. Maleki did not reject the proposal outright but insisted that Iran must retain the central role in managing Hormuz, without sharing its leadership.
- Qatar: Doha has also presented proposals aimed at restarting negotiations, largely driven by concerns that another war could directly affect the Gulf states.
Iran’s conditions: Maleki argues that Washington must first return to the Islamabad Memorandum and implement its provisions, including those concerning US military withdrawal and the release of frozen Iranian assets, before Tehran considers negotiations on other issues.
Two points stand out to me.
- First, despite growing speculation about renewed military confrontation, diplomatic exchanges appear to be continuing through several channels.
- Second, Moscow seems interested in turning Hormuz into a broader diplomatic arrangement involving China. Tehran, however, appears reluctant to share control over what has become one of its most important strategic bargaining chips.
- Maleki is an influential parliamentarian, but his remarks should not necessarily be interpreted as reflecting decisions already taken by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
- Still, the reported Russian proposal deserves attention. It may reveal an emerging difference between Tehran and its two major partners over how the Hormuz crisis should ultimately be resolved.
#Iran #Russia #China #Qatar #Pakistan
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
QATAR MEDIATES IN IRAN AS U.S. SEEKS TO EASE TENSIONS
Qatari mediators are in Tehran as part of a diplomatic effort coordinated with the United States to de-escalate regional tensions, Reuters reports.
The initiative comes amid heightened concerns over renewed U.S.–Iran hostilities.