Inventor of the #GoldForecasterIndex Inventor of Sung's Method for Gold Mining Valuations https://xitter.cf/t.co/ky0XQxxNXt
Joined June 2021
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One chart to rule them all! (Have fun decoding it.馃樅 )
Includes:
- market cap
- debt
- gold price
- mine life
- interest
- tax
- cost
- production
- CAPEX
- discount rate
- depreciation
- ownership
- royalties
- payability
showing:
- leverage (slope)
- upside %
Correlation Economics retweeted
7d average of implied hormuz flows is 9.7 mbpd, this likely gets revised to just over 10 mbpd. Down maybe 20% from peak and holding. Persian Gulf loadings have declined though and are back at August levels, and Red Sea loadings have also slowed in the most recent satellite pass.
$GLD stock level has been dropping. The trend has changed to the downside.
I remember Arrow Exploration from last year, when oil was at $60. Now it's at $100 and it's making dough.
Not only oil has doubled, their production doubled as well from 3800 BOE/d to 6500 BOE/d. Management says production can even go to 10000 BOE/d in 2028. They also have recently acquired Canadian assets that could add another 3000 BOE/d by 2029, so 13000 BOE/d in total.
Even better, they have no hedges and are almost pure oil with oil to double from $100/bbl to $200/bbl in 2028. Leverage is 5X, which is much better than most miners.
They have a PE of 3 right now, no debt, extremely high margin (cost is only $15/BOE) and realized price of Brent-10. Oil can literally go back to $70/bbl and Arrow would still go up.
They are in Colombia and may one day even get tax cuts with the new pro-energy government.
$AXL.V
Arrow Exploration's share price is dependent on 2 factors:
1) Oil price
2) Production
Both are going up. 馃槆
Now let's talk a bit about this Thorsby asset they acquired in June 2026. They paid $12m CAD for this. The NPV10 is $71m CAD at McDaniel price deck.
However, at $115/bbl Brent it's closer to $140m CAD NPV10, which is almost the market cap of Arrow.
Pay $1, get $10 value for free. Amazing! And maybe you think, oh this is pre-tax. But due to their huge tax pools in Canada, it's basically all post-tax profit.
