Founder Remloe Capital LLC. https://xitter.cf/t.co/e4PBLuRSWa Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Remloe Capital LLC may have positions in securities mentioned.
Twin Cities
Joined December 2011
- Tweets19.9K
- Following565
- Followers9.8K
- Likes12.4K
Pinned Tweet
The order of the macro dominos is:
1) Physical funds erase discounts to NAV
2a) Spot moves up
2b) The curve bull spreads
3) LT contracting en masse
OG uranium Twitter knows this has been my take FOREVER.
This is the order of operations today as it always was.
#uranium
In Brazil, Congress is the adult in the room.
And I would also add the Central Bank of Brazil to the list of adults.
Imagine that, a sound Congress and central bank.
Would be weird if the Real became a flight to safety trade.
At Spectra FX today, we hosted a call with Maurício Moura, a Brazilian economist, pollster, and the founder and CEO of the research institute IDEIA Big Data. He's good. Here are Spectra's takeaways.
1: Flavio is 85/15 favourite. Lula has run a very good round 2 campaign and without that it would be 95/5. Polymarket is 75/25.
2: Lula needs to get a lot of votes from abstentions in the first round. However beyond that...
3: The market is looking at too big a differential between the outcome of either winner.
Lula won't be able to pass most of his fiscal stuff. However similarly despite controlling congress, Flavio also won't command much respect. The presidential position in Brazil is much weaker compared to Congress than it has become in the US.
The cold reality is that macro matters a lot more than politics--in fact the common knowledge has been exactly backwards. The currency (BRL) has outperformed under left-leaning government and underperformed when more right wingers come in. Probably a coincidence, not an indictment of the right.
As you zoom out and move away from election day--
Macro matters much more than local policy in Brazil. (e.g., China entering WTO, commodity supercycle bust, COVID, etc.)
Obviously this won't matter day one, flows will follow what they believe to be true, but when you zoom out--
This too shall pass.
Chart shows BRL total return, including carry (log).
Final note: Spectra has done a wild amount of USDBRL volume through this election. If you work at a hedge fund and trade FX options, you should be covered by Spectra FX! We are on Bloomberg. :]
#gittinsbrasil2026
@thegitt
Fed officials largely cited lack of energy inflation pass through as a reason to move slower on hikes.
Using latent inflation in the system as a reason not to hike is about as dovish as you can get and the risk is rising inflation expectations.
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT BEATS EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION FEARS RISE
October's final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 48.0 vs. 46.3 expected, but remained below September's 48.1.
🔸 Current conditions: 46.7 vs. 50.9 prior
🔸 Consumer expectations: 48.8 vs. 46.3 prior
🔸 1-year inflation outlook: 4.7% vs. 4.6% prior
🔸 5-year inflation outlook: 3.5% vs. 3.4% prior
Do for a Qwen 4.0 release soon. Probably something China wants out ahead of any US frontier lab IPOs.
Bethany McLean back on the beat?
Trigger warning for those who can’t bear to hear anything negative about their idol! H/T @RealJimChanos
inc.com/bethany-mclean/space…
Interesting to think about where we're at in the relative valuation cycle of bond/equities vs Brazil
There's plenty of bear porn going around , but the most unnerving thing I see is how strong treasuries and SOFR are tradeling in the face of the oil curve repricing higher
10 yr rates vs CLZ2027. Rates topped out 5.5% ago vs Dec 27 crude.
Until proven otherwise I think the market is screaming at us that nominal growth has topped.
I didn't care about the riots in France until it started effing with my position in $III.L
96 of India’s 191 coal plants hold critically low fuel stocks (<3 days) amid surging demand from El Niño-linked heat, weaker monsoons cutting hydro output, & peak demand 45-50 GW above last year.. Total stocks have fallen ~5% this month, SEP demand-supply gap hit a 3yr high.. #coaltwitter #TTF #JKM #LNG #Rott #NEWC $WHC.AX $YAL.AX $SMR.AX $TER.AX $BTU $TGA.L $GLEN $COAL
Freight pressured cracks as it put some Asian refiners OTM. OTM Asian refiners then reduced demand for freight as margins went negative. Cracks went up, CL demand fell, freight topped.
If this is enough supply to pressure freight rates, it's bullish CL and bearish cracks all else equal.
It's a highly dynamic situation. I don't think it alone can send CL to $200 or 3-2-1 to $30. But it could influence pricing at the margin.
For now (important caveat), the market is saying you get moar capex/higher Qs or lower rates, but not both
Are rates restrictive? Pretty important question today. Qs and rates topping together has me thinking so, but open to that not being the case. If stocks = AI capex, and rates are restrictive, then the cost of higher stocks means pushing rates further into restrictive territory.