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Green Flag Picks

@GreenFlagPicks

Data-driven NASCAR Cup fantasy picks. Every pick posted before the green flag, every result graded Monday. No hiding the misses.

 Pit Road
Joined February 2021
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CALLED IT AGAIN 🏁 WIN: Jesse Love from the pole ✅ Led 156 of 200, swept both stages Allgaier: 3rd ✅ FADE Sanchez: 7th to 22nd ✅ Crews: 20th ❌ Top picks 2 for 2 this weekend. Cup next. #NASCAR #Oreilly #Phoenix
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 17
GREEN FLAG PICKS: O'Reilly at Phoenix WIN: Jesse Love. Pole by 0.24s.
TOP 3: Justin Allgaier. Won here in March from 17th.
SLEEPER: Brent Crews. P1 in practice over 1 and 10 laps. FADE: Nick Sanchez. Starts 7th, 28th on the 10-lap chart. Who you got? 
7:30 ET #NASCAR #phoenix
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Homestead recap Ryan Blaney won. He was #1 on our new board and #2 on our baseline. Model top 5: Blaney 1st, Reddick 2nd, Bell 4th, Hamlin 6th, Larson 12th. Four of five finished top 6. Congrats to Kyle Larson, 3-time Cup champion. #NASCAR #Homestead #Miami
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksNov 8
Cup finale at Homestead. Model board: 1. Larson 2. Blaney 3. Reddick 4. Bell 5. Hamlin Blaney topped every long-run practice window (IFR). Larson needs 28th or better to clinch the title (Speedway Media). Picks, not betting advice. #NASCAR #Homestead #Miami #Championship
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Cup finale at Homestead. Model board: 1. Larson 2. Blaney 3. Reddick 4. Bell 5. Hamlin Blaney topped every long-run practice window (IFR). Larson needs 28th or better to clinch the title (Speedway Media). Picks, not betting advice. #NASCAR #Homestead #Miami #Championship
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Model check heading into Homestead Last 2 Chase races (superspeedways excluded): #1 pick avg finish: 5.0 (Bell 4th, Hamlin 6th) Top-5 picks: 7 of 10 finished top 10 Winners came from our #8 and #3 spots Betting favorite avg finish: 4.0 One race left. #NASCAR #Homestead
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🏁 Martinsville recap WIN: Hamlin ❌ 6th (pole, led 40) TOP 5: 2 of 4. Elliott 2nd ✅ Gibbs 3rd ✅ Bell 10th ❌ Blaney 35th ❌ SLEEPER: Chastain 11th, just missed the top 10 Byron won, leading 362 of 500. Our baseline model had him 3rd. #NASCAR #Martinsville
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What went wrong: Blaney spun in traffic on lap 252 and wrecked his radiator Hamlin lost track position by not pitting in Stage 1, then got caught in a spin. The lesson: Byron led 61% of the laps here last fall and won. Dominance at a track carries over. #Martinsville
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🏁 Martinsville Cup picks WIN: Denny Hamlin. On the pole, 6 Martinsville wins, #1 on both our boards TOP 5: Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs SLEEPER: Ross Chastain. Best 10- and 15-lap practice averages (per NASCAR), starts 16th #NASCAR #Xfinity500
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The reasoning: Elliott won here in the spring and was strong late in long runs Blaney finished 2nd here last fall Bell has "nothing to lose." Needs a win, 3 straight top 10s here Gibbs starts 2nd with elite long-run paceChastain: best long-run speed, starts mid-pack #Martinsville
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🏁 O'Reilly @ Martinsville WIN: Allgaier – 2nd (won Stage 1, led 52) TOP 5: Day 3rd ✅ | S. Smith 7th, Caruth 16th, Love 30th ❌ SLEEPER: B. Jones 4th ✅ Kvapil won from the pole, led 121. Results: NASCAR Statistics #NASCAR #OReillySeries
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 31
🏁 O'Reilly @ Martinsville WIN: Allgaier – won here in March (led 114), starts 3rd TOP 5: Love (P1 10-lap), S. Smith (P2 10-lap), Day (2nd here in March), Caruth (starts 2nd) SLEEPER: B. Jones (P3 10-lap, starts 12th) Data: NASCAR Statistics #NASCAR #OReillySeries
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🏁 O'Reilly @ Martinsville WIN: Allgaier – won here in March (led 114), starts 3rd TOP 5: Love (P1 10-lap), S. Smith (P2 10-lap), Day (2nd here in March), Caruth (starts 2nd) SLEEPER: B. Jones (P3 10-lap, starts 12th) Data: NASCAR Statistics #NASCAR #OReillySeries
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🏁 Trucks @ Martinsville ✅ WIN: Chandler Smith – WON TOP 5: Rhodes 2nd, Riggs 3rd, McKee 5th ✅ | Honeycutt 14th ❌ SLEEPER: Perez de Lara 6th Riggs led 156 & swept both stages; Smith took it at the end. Results: NASCAR Statistics #NASCAR #TruckSeries #Martinsville
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 30
🏁 Trucks @ Martinsville WIN: Chandler Smith – P1 single lap, P3 10-lap avg, starts 3rd, 4th & 6th here in '25 TOP 5: Honeycutt, Rhodes, Riggs, McKee SLEEPER: Perez de Lara – P4 10-lap, starts 13th Data: NASCAR Statistics #NASCAR #TruckSeries
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🏁 Trucks @ Martinsville WIN: Chandler Smith – P1 single lap, P3 10-lap avg, starts 3rd, 4th & 6th here in '25 TOP 5: Honeycutt, Rhodes, Riggs, McKee SLEEPER: Perez de Lara – P4 10-lap, starts 13th Data: NASCAR Statistics #NASCAR #TruckSeries
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Talladega recap: our top pick Suarez ran 18th, a lap down. Chastain ran 4th. Three of our top five got wrecked after RFK owned Stage 1. Superspeedways are a gut call more than a data call, and my gut privately said Larson. Should have posted it. That's on me. #NASCAR #Talladega
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 25
Talladega Cup model picks WIN: Daniel Suarez (finished all 6 of the last 6 drafting races, 10.8 avg)
SLEEPER: Ross Chastain (model #2, +2700 at FanDuel)
TOP 5: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick, Buescher, Keselowski
TOP 10: Elliott, Hocevar, Logano, Bell, Bowman #NASCAR #Talladega
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Talladega Cup model picks WIN: Daniel Suarez (finished all 6 of the last 6 drafting races, 10.8 avg)
SLEEPER: Ross Chastain (model #2, +2700 at FanDuel)
TOP 5: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick, Buescher, Keselowski
TOP 10: Elliott, Hocevar, Logano, Bell, Bowman #NASCAR #Talladega
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FADE: Ryan Blaney, the betting favorite. Model has him 19th: he finished only 3 of the last 6 drafting races (21.8 avg). Best drafter in the field, worst survival rate among the contenders. Model output.
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Talladega. The Chase. 40 cars, a brand-new 3.5-inch spoiler and a 98-lap opening stage. Briscoe on the pole. Larson leads Bell by just 5 points with three races left. Model's top 3: Suarez, Chastain, Reddick. Green flag 2:25 ET on NBC. #NASCAR #Talladega #YellaWood500
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Talladega O'Reilly scorecard 🏁
WIN Hill: 35th ❌
SLEEPER Retzlaff: 31st ❌
TOP 5: Kvapil 2nd ✅, Creed 5th ✅, B. Jones 9th, Retzlaff 31st, Hill 35th
TOP 10: Love 3rd ✅, Allgaier 4th ✅
FADE Mayer: 13th from 3rd ✅
Sammy Smith sweeps the weekend #NASCAR #Talladega
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 24
Talladega O'Reilly picks! WIN: Austin Hill (won Daytona in Feb, 2nd in Aug; starts 5th)
SLEEPER: Parker Retzlaff (8.4 avg in 2026 drafting races)
TOP 5: Hill, Retzlaff, Kvapil, B. Jones, Creed
TOP 10: Love, Allgaier Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega
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Why I missed: my top two both hit trouble. Retzlaff spun in the grass on lap 21 with no caution and lost two laps. Hill tagged the wall and cut a tire in the last 10. Five of the seven I named finished top 10.
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Talladega O'Reilly picks! WIN: Austin Hill (won Daytona in Feb, 2nd in Aug; starts 5th)
SLEEPER: Parker Retzlaff (8.4 avg in 2026 drafting races)
TOP 5: Hill, Retzlaff, Kvapil, B. Jones, Creed
TOP 10: Love, Allgaier Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega
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FADE: Sam Mayer. Crashed out of 3 of the last 4 drafting races and averages 23.8 in them this year. Starting 3rd puts him right where the wrecks start. My read, not a model call.
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Talladega Trucks scorecard 🏁
WIN Ruggiero: 25th ❌ (won Stage 1, then trouble)
SLEEPER C. Smith: 14th ❌
TOP 5: Ankrum 2nd ✅, Heim 10th, C. Smith 14th, Rhodes 17th, Ruggiero 25th
TOP 10: Majeski 4th ✅, Honeycutt 5th ✅
FADE Hemric: 35th ✅ #NASCAR #Talladega
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 23
Talladega Trucks picks 🏁 WIN: Gio Ruggiero (1st, 2nd, 3rd in the last 3 drafting races)
SLEEPER: Chandler Smith (won Daytona, starts 14th)
TOP 5: Ruggiero, Heim, C. Smith, Ankrum, Rhodes
TOP 10: Majeski, Honeycutt Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega
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Why I missed: Ruggiero won Stage 1, got stuck in reverse on pit road, needed a new transmission and finished 29 laps down (Speedway Media). C. Smith fought a flat and got collected late. Front starters ran well this time. Results: NASCAR official sheet.
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Talladega Trucks picks 🏁 WIN: Gio Ruggiero (1st, 2nd, 3rd in the last 3 drafting races)
SLEEPER: Chandler Smith (won Daytona, starts 14th)
TOP 5: Ruggiero, Heim, C. Smith, Ankrum, Rhodes
TOP 10: Majeski, Honeycutt Research picks, not model output.
#NASCAR #Talladega
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FADE: Daniel Hemric. 34th, 26th, 34th in the last 3 drafting races (crash, 1 lap down, suspension) and rolls off 27th. My read, not a model call.
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Phoenix scorecard. We said what we said. Bell: led 85, 4th. Hit Blaney: pole to 2nd. Hit Bubba: led 52, then a speeding penalty Larson in trouble: 34th. Hit Logano fade: 6th. Miss, we own it Trucks and O'Reilly WON Talladega next. Wreck-survivor pick? #NASCAR #Phoenix
Green Flag Picks (@GreenFlagPicks) profile pictureGreen Flag Picks@GreenFlagPicksOct 18
Phoenix Cup picks 🏁 WIN: Bell. P1 at every practice run length. Led 176 laps here in March CONTENDER: Blaney. Pole, won 2 straight here SLEEPER: Bubba. 4th over 20 and 25 laps FADE: Logano. 17th-23rd on long runs Trucks ✅ O'Reilly ✅ Sweep? Your winner? #NASCAR #FantasyNASCAR
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Not saying who, but somebody in today's Phoenix field has a lot more riding on this race than anyone's talking about. Watch the first pit stop. You'll know. #NASCAR #Phoenix
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Phoenix Cup picks 🏁 WIN: Bell. P1 at every practice run length. Led 176 laps here in March CONTENDER: Blaney. Pole, won 2 straight here SLEEPER: Bubba. 4th over 20 and 25 laps FADE: Logano. 17th-23rd on long runs Trucks ✅ O'Reilly ✅ Sweep? Your winner? #NASCAR #FantasyNASCAR
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More from the model 🏁 Larson starts 22nd. No Phoenix winner since 2017 started deeper than 13th. Bell starts 5th with a Charlotte photo finish to answer for. Blaney has the best pit stall. Bubba starts 24th. Logano calls it "must-win" from P2. #NASCAR #Phoenix
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