Intéressé par le marché des céréales, l'agriculture, et plus #FrAgTw de 💛!!
Vendée, Pays de la Loire
Joined June 2011
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Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
Yann LeCun was right & nobody in this industry wants to say it out loud.
109 million parameters beat 72 billion.
He has spent years saying scale is not the thing that makes a model understand the world. Meta bet the other way. He left in November and started his own lab in Paris.
Last Thursday he published the proof.
The theory everyone has been running on since 2024 is that if you train models big enough, on text, on images, on sound, they all end up with the same picture of reality inside them. Size does it. Nobody ever proved that part.
Randall Balestriero and LeCun proved it. And the proof says size was never doing the work.
What does the work is which two things you show a model together.
A photo and the caption of that photo are two views of one thing. Models trained on pairs like that get there fast.
Two paragraphs pulled from the same document are not two views of one thing. Models trained on those get there slowly and expensively.
Next word prediction is the second kind. That is what every chatbot in the world runs on.
In their tests the first method reached the same understanding after 21.6 million examples. Next word prediction needed 900 million.
And a 109 million parameter text model ended up closer to an image model's view of the world than a 72 billion parameter language model was.
660 times smaller.
A 109M outperform a 72B, just what ???
Yann LeCun and Randall Balestriero just Proved the Platonic Representation Hypothesis, and found a better way to achieve it.
The Platonic Representation Hypothesis suggests that AI models trained on different modalities, like images and text, eventually learn similar representations of the world. But this paper shows that how models are trained matters more than simply scaling them up.
So they mathematically show that, under certain conditions, two JEPAs trained completely separately can learn essentially the same underlying representation of the world. One learns from different images of the same scene, while the other learns from different descriptions of that scene, without ever being trained on image-text pairs.
Their approach achieves the same image-text alignment with 42x fewer training samples than next-token prediction. A 109M-parameter text JEPA even outperforms LLMs up to 72B parameters on cross-modal alignment benchmarks.
alphaxiv.org/abs/2610.39302
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
CME Bitcoin futures: a failed rebound in a downtrend, 30 October 2026
#BTC #Trading #chart
macropulseresearch.substack.…
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
🧵Three blacklisted supertankers holding 140,000 tons of Russian fuel are drifting in circles in the Atlantic because the White House begged US traders to buy Putin's diesel, and literally zero buyers answered the phone. 1/🧵
Hormuz and fertiliser relations not clear? Here's a 3 minutes read substack.com/@commodityconve…
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
📉 Las inspecciones de exportación de maíz estadounidense sumaron apenas 630.000 toneladas semanales, frente a 1,24 Mt en igual período del año pasado. El acumulado de la campaña se ubica 800.000 toneladas por debajo del nivel de 2025.
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
🇧🇷 En Brasil, la siembra del maíz de primera alcanzó el 47%, en línea con el año pasado. 🇦🇷 En Argentina, llegó al 40%, el ritmo más rápido para esta fecha en al menos seis años.
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
🌽 El maíz de EE. UU. sigue bajo presión por los rindes elevados y la debilidad exportadora.
📉 Las inspecciones semanales cayeron a 630.000 toneladas, frente a 1,24 Mt un año atrás. El acumulado está 800.000 toneladas por debajo del nivel de 2025.
🇧🇷 Brasil sembró el 47% del maíz de primera y 🇦🇷 Argentina alcanzó el 40%, el avance más rápido en al menos seis años.
La oferta estadounidense y la competitividad sudamericana seguirán condicionando a Chicago.
#Maíz #Chicago #MercadoDeGranos
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
China volvió a comprar soja brasileña con operaciones para embarques en diciembre y marzo, en un mercado que continúa atento a la demanda asiática, las condiciones climáticas en Sudamérica y la evolución de los precios de los aceites vegetales.
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
This morning I released 3 full analysis : technical read, fondamentals possible price actions to come! All that on corn, soy and wheat. As I try to improve the articles one after another, comment and feedback would be much appreciated! :-)
See my substask for more! Seeya!!
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
This is quite something ! Serbian RTV channel starts yesterday's bulletin by apologizing to viewers👇
"For years, we failed to fulfill our duty. We kept silent, turned a blind eye, reported events one-sidedly and failed to ask necessary questions. We owe our viewers an apology”
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
❌🌾As you may have seen, last week I bought wheat because I thought the market was in for a very aggressive downtrend, even though there was no strong catalyst.
The market had already priced in a deal that never materialized. Today, however, it continued to move lower amid new rumors that Moscow might accept a deal in the Black Sea.
With support levels broken, I cut my losses because my outlook was no longer valid.
As I said, this is part of the game, which is why I kept my risk under control.
I still think the market’s reaction is extreme, but I’m waiting for another opportunity to get in.
Never think you’re smarter than the market. The house always wins.
🔴🌾SRW wheat has fallen 22% since its early September peak.
Prices dropped another 2.18% today as reports emerged that Putin and Zelensky are willing to restart negotiations (see post below).
For now, though, that’s an ambition, not an official plan. There’s no agreed framework or timetable.
Russian wheat exports are still 50% below last year, while Ukrainian exports are the same.
🇷🇺Putin has previously said he wouldn’t accept a partial deal : any agreement would have to address the whole war. The conflict began in 2014, and here we are, more than a decade later.
🎯Technically, wheat has returned to a major support level that could point to higher prices. As the saying goes: “Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets.” Today, many seem to be selling in anticipation of a deal that may still be a long way off.
I’m buying today. I could be wrong, of course, but I’ve kept the risk tightly controlled, and the potential reward makes the trade worthwhile for me.
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
BBG: #wheat erased the Black Sea risk premium after a report that Moscow is considering proposals to secure grain shipments.
Reality, from Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister:
“We are reviewing proposals received from various countries... We see no possibility of reviving the ‘grain deal’ in any format.”
Fun market.
#blacksea #oatt #sizovreport
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
Wheat gives up 7% in a week, with no macro behind it macropulseresearch.substack.…
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
Fertilizer through Hormuz has dropped to zero.
No fertilizer cargoes crossing the strait in September or October.
Before the war, about 20% of the world’s traded nitrogen fertilizer went through it, Fertilizer Daily reports.
The Gulf also supplies about half of the world’s traded sulfur.
Hear me out: urea isn’t the problem.
China raised its nitrogen exports about 47% and the US about 60%.
By the end of August urea was back to its January price, IFPRI data shows.
Sulfur is the problem.
It has more than doubled, to above $1,000 a tonne, and phosphate is up 25–30%.
You need sulfur to make phosphate fertilizer.
Mosaic has idled two Louisiana plants, and India’s fertilizer subsidy bill could pass 3 trillion rupees, against 1.71 trillion budgeted.
Oil found other ways out of the Gulf.
Sulfur hasn’t.
source: World Visualized
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
❗️Elon Musk says Ukraine violated Starlink’s terms of service by using it for offensive drone strikes and that the “loophole was closed last week.” He added that Starlink remains critical to Ukraine’s defense and claimed the front would “collapse immediately” if it were turned off. Ukrainian veteran Bohdan Krotevych responded: “Imagine buying a device from a company, paying a monthly subscription fee, and having the head of that company threaten to shut the device off.” #Ukraine
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
🇦🇷 #Argentina’s core zone faces a rare October for #wheat marked by lower #solar radiation, cold temperatures and #agronomic frosts between 17-19 Oct, yet the estimated average yield holds at 43.6 qq/ha (4.36 MT/HA), 5 qq/ha above the five-year average of 38.3 qq/ha. On 1.6 MHA this points to 6.7 MMT, 35% below LY’s record of ~10.3 MMT but nearly 60% above
linkedin.com/posts/grainin_a…
🌾Octubre “raro” para el trigo: a pesar de la menor radiación, el frío y las heladas, el rinde estimado es de 43 qq/ha para la región núcleo
Con 6,7 Mt, la región cosecharían casi 60% más que el promedio de los últimos 16 años.
👉bcr.com.ar/es/mercados/gea/s…
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
Ces premiers plans sont tous disponibles sur substack substack.com/@freddymacropul…
Sans plus attendre, voici la première partie du track record de l'analyse sauce IA
Frédéric Nguyen retweeted
Aujourd'hui je vous propose de revenir sur la performance de @Macro_pulse_ , mon bureau d'analyse de marchés IA.
Le but de ce file? Vérifier si, après 3 semaines de fonctionnement, des IA bien entraînées sont capables de suivre, d'analyser et proposer des plans de trading