Hedgehog Geopolitics

Wars, elections, sanctions and diplomacy, covered as they happen. Numbers, not spin. Every post is sourced. Our own maps and data. Spot an error? Reply and we correct it.

🇨🇦 Canada · 🇨🇳 China China will keep tariff relief for Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab until the end of 2028, a two-year extension agreed on 4 Nov in Beijing, the Canadian government said. Under a January deal, China paused 100% tariffs on canola meal and peas and 25% on lobster and crab, CBC reported. Canada is also extending remissions on some Chinese steel and aluminium to end-2028. Finance ministries also signed a cooperation MoU at talks in Vancouver on 8-9 Nov. Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu said Ottawa aims to grow exports to China by 50% by 2030. Source: Global Affairs Canada; Finance Canada; CBC News, Nov 2026

🇸🇾 Syria Video shared on Telegram is said to show protesters burning tires on a road in Raqqa, northern Syria. IntelSlava, a pro-Russian Telegram channel, says they were blocking oil tankers bound for Damascus and Türkiye amid local fuel shortages. The location, date and motive have not been independently verified. Source: IntelSlava (Telegram)

🇦🇺 Australia · 🇵🇭 Philippines The Philippines and Australia are set to sign a Defence Cooperation Arrangement on Sunday, 15 Nov, ahead of the 49th ASEAN Summit in Manila, with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese witnessing, the Philippine Department of National Defense said. The deal will replace a 1995 defence memorandum of understanding, the two defence ministers said in August. Australia is assisting 8 infrastructure projects at 5 Philippine military bases, AAP reported. The ASEAN Summit opens on 16 Nov. Source: Philippine Department of National Defense; Australian Defence Ministers; AAP; SBS, Aug-Nov 2026

🇷🇺 Russia · 🇦🇫 Afghanistan Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk is due in Kabul today, 12 Nov, for trade and investment talks, the Taliban Foreign Ministry said. The head of the Russian Business Center in Afghanistan told Sputnik a trade and economic agreement is being prepared for signing, and that Overchuk and Taliban Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar are expected to sign it. A Russian government readout says bilateral trade rose 150% year on year in Jan-Jul 2026. In July 2025, Russia became the first country to formally recognise the Taliban government, and it remains the only one. Source: Taliban Foreign Ministry; Russian Government; Sputnik; Afghanistan International, Oct-Nov 2026

🇵🇰 Pakistan · 🇨🇳 China Pakistan placed the inner containment dome of Chashma-5, a 1,200 MW Chinese-designed Hualong One reactor, on 10 Nov, per Pakistan's PM Office. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said it came ahead of schedule. It will be Pakistan's largest nuclear unit and is expected to start generating power in September 2030. It is the country's third Hualong One, after Karachi units 2 and 3. According to the official press release, nuclear provides around 16.6% of Pakistan's electricity from 8.6% of installed capacity. Source: Pakistan PM Office; Dawn; Business Recorder; World Nuclear News, Nov 2026

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan · 🇬🇪 Georgia · 🇹🇷 Turkey · 🇧🇬 Bulgaria Ministers from the four countries signed a clean-energy strategic partnership in Antalya on 10 Nov, on the sidelines of COP31, to carry clean power from Azerbaijan via Georgia and Turkey to Bulgaria and EU markets. The corridor is expected to carry at least 2,000-3,000 MW, and national grid operators are to form a joint venture to develop it, per Georgian outlet BM.ge. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar called it the "TANAP of electricity", after the Trans-Anatolian pipeline that carries Azerbaijani gas across Turkey toward Europe. Source: Turkey and Bulgaria energy ministries; AZERTAC; Anadolu Agency; BM.ge, Nov 2026

🇵🇰 Pakistan · 🇰🇼 Kuwait Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Kuwaiti Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmad Al-Abdullah Al-Ahmad Al-Sabah met at COP31 in Antalya on 11 Nov and welcomed their defence cooperation agreement, now ratified by both countries, per Pakistan's PM Office. The pact was signed in Kuwait on 11 Jun 2023. Kuwait ratified it by decree-law in July 2026; Pakistan's federal cabinet followed on 4 Nov. It covers training, military intelligence, defence industry and expert exchanges, not troop deployments or arms purchases, per Kuwait Times. Initial term: 5 years, renewing automatically. Source: Pakistan PM Office via APP; Pakistan MOFA; Kuwait Al-Youm via Kuwait Times; Dawn, Jul-Nov 2026

🇪🇺 EU · 🇳🇬 Nigeria The EU and Nigeria signed their first readmission agreement in Abuja on 10 Nov, about 10 years after the EU Council authorised talks in Sep 2016, per the European Commission. EU Internal Affairs and Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner and Nigerian Foreign Minister Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu represented the two sides at the signing. It sets procedures to identify and return people with no right to stay in Nigeria or an EU state; European Parliament consent is still needed. The EU already had readmission agreements or arrangements with 24 countries. About 260,000 Nigerians live legally in the EU, Brunner said in Abuja. Source: European Commission; Nigeria Ministry of Information; Eunews, 10-11 Nov 2026

🇧🇬 Bulgaria · 🇪🇸 Spain · 🇫🇷 France · 🇮🇹 Italy Bulgaria's government approved the signing of 3 defence procurement agreements on 11 Nov, linked to projects under the EU's SAFE loan instrument, per the government press service: - Spain: MoU on joint acquisition of up to 20 counter-drone systems (10 mobile, 10 container-based), with Spain as lead nation - France: framework agreement on joint procurement of 155 mm ammunition for CAESAR self-propelled howitzers - Italy: agreement on up to 1,040 military vehicles worth up to €410 million; a first phase of up to 700 in 2027-2030, up to €290 million, funded via SAFE Parliament must still approve the spending. Bulgaria's SAFE financing is capped at about €3.26 billion in loans, per Paragraf.bg. Source: Bulgarian Government press service via BGNES; Nova TV; Paragraf.bg, 11 Nov 2026

🇮🇱 Israel · 🇱🇧 Lebanon Quds News Network says this video shows an Israeli airstrike on Mansouri, south Lebanon, tonight. The night footage shows a flash and fire on a hillside. The location and target have not been independently verified. Source: Quds News Network (Telegram)

🇶🇦 Qatar · 🇹🇷 Turkey Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will host Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in Istanbul on 13 Nov for the 12th Turkey-Qatar High Strategic Committee. Qatar's ambassador to Turkey, Faisal bin Abdullah Al Hanzab, told Anadolu Agency he expects important agreements to be signed. The committee has met yearly since 2015, with 115 agreements signed over 11 meetings. Bilateral trade reached $1.15 billion in 2025; both sides target $5 billion, per Daily Sabah. On 11 Nov, Qatar's Cabinet approved 3 draft texts with Turkey, including a foreign-ministry MoU on peace, reconciliation and conflict resolution, per Qatar News Agency. Source: Anadolu Agency; Daily Sabah; Qatar News Agency, 11 Nov 2026

🇺🇦 Ukraine · 🇹🇷 Turkey Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha met Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan at COP31 in Antalya on 11 Nov and pointed to the Ukraine-Turkey Free Trade Agreement as a chance to expand trade and investment. The deal, signed in February 2022, took effect on 1 Oct 2026; tariff preferences for some Turkish imports into Ukraine are scheduled to apply from 1 Jan 2027, per Kyiv Post. Sybiha also said Turkey plays a key role in Black Sea security and Ukraine's peace efforts. Fidan held 8 meetings on the COP31 sidelines, including with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, per Anadolu Agency. Source: Andrii Sybiha statement; Kyiv Post; Anadolu Agency, 11 Nov 2026

🇨🇳 China · 🇨🇺 Cuba China will firmly support Cuba in opposing sanctions, blockades and external interference "no matter how circumstances evolve," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla in Beijing on 11 Nov, per Xinhua. Rodríguez, visiting as special envoy of Cuba's Communist Party and government, reaffirmed Havana's commitment to the one-China principle. Cuban Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga attended the talks, per Anadolu. Rodríguez also met top Chinese political adviser Wang Huning, who said China firmly supports Cuba in its "just struggle against sanctions, blockade and foreign interference," per Xinhua. Source: Xinhua; Reuters; Anadolu, 11 Nov 2026

🇨🇿 Czechia · 🇺🇦 Ukraine Czech Industry Minister Karel Havlíček and Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal signed several energy memoranda in Kyiv on 11 Nov, covering nuclear, hydro and renewable power, per ČTK. Havlíček leads a 2-day mission of about 50 Czech energy, engineering and IT firms; Czech and Ukrainian companies also signed memoranda. He said the Ukraine fund of Czech export insurer EGAP recently grew from CZK 639m to CZK 1bn, with CZK 450m still unused. Source: ČTK; Radio Prague International; oEnergetice.cz, Nov 2026

🇨🇳 China · 🇲🇾 Malaysia A China Coast Guard ship is making its first port visit to Malaysia: the cutter Sandu docked in Penang on 10 Nov for a 4-day stay, per China's Defence Ministry. Through 13 Nov, its crew holds search-and-rescue exchanges, a tabletop exercise and communication drills with the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA). It returns a June 2025 visit to Sanya by the MMEA ship KM Tun Fatimah. The MMEA stressed that the cooperation would not undermine Malaysia's sovereignty and sovereign rights, Oriental Daily reported. Source: China Defence Ministry; Xinhua; CCTV; Oriental Daily, Nov 2026

🇮🇳 India · 🇨🇦 Canada India and Canada aim to grow bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, from $7.95 billion in FY26, per India's Commerce Ministry. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met Canadian International Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu in New Delhi on 11 Nov to advance talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). Talks launched in March; both sides aim to conclude by end-2026. In May, Sidhu announced a Team Canada trade mission to India for November, per India's PIB. Source: India Commerce Ministry; PIB; All India Radio; Moneycontrol, Nov 2026

🇨🇳 China · 🇹🇭 Thailand Thailand's Cabinet has endorsed 7 cooperation documents to be signed during Chinese Premier Li Qiang's official visit on 13-15 Nov, the first by a Chinese premier in 7 years, per Thai government spokesman Ekkapop Pienpises. They include a 5-year automotive MoU focused on electric vehicles, durian and salacca export protocols, and a security MoU under China's Global Security Initiative. Thailand exported 1,217,695 tonnes of fresh durian to China in the first 9 months of 2026, per Government House. Li then attends the 29th China-ASEAN Summit in Manila on 15-16 Nov, per China's Foreign Ministry. Source: Thai Government House; China Foreign Ministry; Nation TV, 11 Nov 2026

🇨🇳 China · ASEAN China and ASEAN have provisionally agreed on about 80% of a South China Sea code of conduct, but won't conclude talks in 2026 as targeted, 3 Southeast Asian diplomats told AP on 11 Nov. Talks began in 2005. Still open: the code's geographic scope, definitions of sensitive terms, and whether it will be legally binding. Negotiators agreed to preserve the 2002 non-binding Declaration on the Conduct of Parties and incorporate its main principles into the code, diplomats told BNC. Talks will continue in 2027, when Singapore takes over the ASEAN chair. Source: AP; Bilyonaryo News Channel (BNC), 11 Nov 2026

🇰🇼 Kuwait · 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia · 🇧🇭 Bahrain · 🇶🇦 Qatar · 🇦🇪 UAE · 🇴🇲 Oman Defence ministers of all 6 Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states approved an advanced headquarters for the bloc's Unified Military Command in Kuwait on 10 Nov in Manama, with "appropriate" forces allocated to it, GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi said. Its exact location, troop numbers and force types have not been disclosed. The Unified Military Command was created at a GCC summit in Kuwait in December 2013; its main headquarters in Riyadh opened in 2021, per Al Jazeera. Source: GCC Secretariat; Reuters; KUNA; Al Jazeera, 10-11 Nov 2026

🇹🇷 Turkey · 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed an electricity memorandum at COP31 in Antalya on 10 Nov, advancing plans for 3,000 MW of additional renewable capacity in Turkey. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman signed it in the presence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It builds on a 3 Feb intergovernmental deal, in force since 21 Oct, for Saudi firm ACWA Power to develop 5,000 MW in Turkey in 2 phases. Phase 1 covers 2,000 MW of solar in Sivas and Karaman; phase 2 envisages wind plants with HVDC transmission and battery storage, Bayraktar said. Source: Anadolu Agency; Saudi Press Agency, 10 Nov 2026