CEO @ AG Capital
Sandton, South Africa
Joined October 2011
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Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
People in finance love to make things more complicated than they need to be
@AswathDamodaran eloquently does the opposite, dumbing down a massive document and hours & hours of work into very simplistic terms
Anthropic's IPO was filed on October 26, 2026, and I value it's equity at about $1.475 trillion, which will inform my decision on whether to buy or sell its shares. To make your Anthropic choice, though, you should value it yourself, and I will provide a story and input structure to help you. bit.ly/3UTo3Gj
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
JPMAM: If rates fall 1%, you'll earn 13% on the 10yr Treasury... if rates rise 1%, you'll lose 2% $TNX
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
THE PERKINI REPORT: THE 2028 REALITY CRISIS
What if the most obvious financial bubble in all of history turns out to be.... a bubble... and what if that is just really.... bearish?
there were signs, there are always signs 🤣
free link:
hub.tslombard.com/the-perkin…
inspired by @citrini
It's never easy to go against the crowd, but it can be very profitable.
BERNSTEIN: “.. we caught a lot of hate when we initiated $CRWV with a $56 price target seven months ago. Today, it’s a lot harder to find bulls — certainly some of them just don’t call us anymore.”
Reiterate Underweight
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
13% of SPX earnings are in... 88% EPS beat rate
@fundstrat @fundstratdirect fundstratdirect.com/market-i…
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
Anthropic has recorded one of the largest corporate LOSSES EVER reported:
The company posted a staggering -$80.7 billion net loss in the first half of 2026, up from -$13 billion a year earlier.
This is also nearly DOUBLE its full-year 2025 loss of -$42 billion.
-$72 billion of the loss stems from non-cash accounting adjustments reflecting changes in the value of convertible notes and other financing instruments, leaving an estimated -$8.7 billion loss after these charges are excluded.
At the same time, revenue surged to $16.3 billion from just $1.1 billion a year earlier, but computing and infrastructure spending nearly QUADRUPLED to $9 billion, exceeding the $7.3 billion spent throughout 2025.
Meanwhile, Anthropic's infrastructure commitments now exceed $600 billion and could reach $750 billion, with most cloud contracts being noncancelable and payable regardless of actual usage.
The company also faces significant customer concentration, with just 2 customers accounting for ~20% of 1H 2026 revenue, while major cloud providers cannot supply all the computing capacity it needs.
Anthropic is preparing for a potential $2 trillion IPO despite enormous infrastructure obligations, substantial underlying losses, and uncertainty over whether revenue growth can justify its spending.
Previously however, Reuters reported that investors are now discussing a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, as slower revenue growth and soaring AI infrastructure costs weigh on sentiment.
Anthropic's $2 trillion IPO ambition is colliding with the brutal economics of the AI arms race.
Important to keep this in mind
1% of companies represent 90% of AI spending.
Of that 90%, 80% of this spend are from unprofitable VC backed companies.
So, roughly, $0.70-75 of every dollar of AI spending right now comes from AI companies spending VC investment dollars.
As a result, the revenue quality in AI is currently poor. This happened in previous cycles as well, like cloud when early users of AWS were mostly venture backed startups.
The thing, though, is that before AWS could scale and pull thru GCP and others as legitimate cash machines, there were a few clearing events to sort out these brittle revenues.
This is the extrapolation of Ken’s point. We will need to transition from speculative AI spending to consistent, reliable spend that shows up in public market earnings reports.
This hasn’t happened yet because most of the breathtaking revenue growth comes from LPs investing in VC funds who then send it to startups.
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
I am surprised this is not getting more airtime. CoreWeave CDS at 1000 bp. AI credit stress is getting acute and spreading. Neocloud players like CoreWeave and APLD have very high debt, very concentrated clients and a duration mismatch (long debt, short contracts).
1/5
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
CoreWeave’s unsecured notes are officially 1,000bps STW, now yielding ~15%.
Either this is terribly mispriced and a buy or the HY market is telling you something about the AI build-out
Which one is it?
robinhood:0x5f10a1c971b69e47e059e1dc91901b59b3fb49c3
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
GS: Even with persistent uncertainty over equilibrium yields, bonds should gradually shift from a portfolio headwind to a more effective hedge.
The asymmetry for longer-duration bonds improves for longer investment horizons
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
The Difference between the dot com bubble and the AI bubble is actually every simple yet no one seems to be talking about it surprisingly...
The dotcom bubble was pumped up by mal investment in unprofitable equities that got pumped to moon by expectations of future profitability from the revolutionary technology called "The Internet". Investors paid for companies that either made no money or bought companies at valuations that made no sense based on their future growth rate.
The AI Bubble is a concentration bubble. Alot of capital is being pumped into VERY profitable companies but those companies are cyclical in nature. The expectation for most investors is that the AI CAPEX cycle will never and we're never going back to a time when semiconductors end up at negative growth and thus multiples should reflect that durability.
You also have an entire generation that is hyper focused on equities and have never done any work on understand how debt impacts enterprise value and the multiples the market will pay on that debt overhang risk as well as cashflow that has to be diverted to debt servicing instead of buybacks.
The worst case scenario is that we get a simultaneous bust of capital allocators waking up and realizing... holy crap the moats we thought we had dont actually exist.
The lynchpin to EVERYTHING is OpenAI and Anthropic.
If at any point, if the market believes that OpenAI and Anthropic cannot meet its obligations, the entire AI economy collapses.
All that capital will rush out of the AI trade and into safe haven assets like Treasuries.
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
"Stocks don't seem to care about higher bond yields over the past month"
The stocks:
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
*EQUAL-WEIGHT S&P 500 DOWN FOR 7 STRAIGHT WEEKS, MOST SINCE 2022
$RSP has been horrendous. I miss when breadth was healthy
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
🚨 A 1-percentage-point drop in long-term Treasury yields could translate into an estimated 21.8% one-year total return for $TLT.
With the chart assuming 5.3% income, the potential outcomes look very different from the low-yield era.
Estimated one-year total returns:
📉 Yields fall 2 points: +41.5%
📉 Yields fall 1 point: +21.8%
➡️ Yields unchanged: +5.3%
📈 Yields rise 1 point: −8.1%
📈 Yields rise 2 points: −18.3%
These scenarios include income and estimated price changes based on duration and convexity.
The income provides a cushion, although another sharp rise in yields could still produce substantial losses.
Long-duration Treasuries now offer meaningful income alongside significant upside potential if yields decline. Whether that upside materializes depends on where long-term rates go from here.
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
Nasdaq 100 climbs to a fresh all-time high as jobs data curb Fed bets. But market breadth is strikingly weak: nearly 60% of its stocks are in bear-market territory, down >20% from their previous peaks. A record index, a very different story underneath.
Henry Biddlecombe retweeted
The S&P 500 has never been more concentrated in just three stocks than it is today with Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft representing over 21% of the index.
