Humayoun Ahmed Khan

OICCI hosted a full-day exclusive training session, “Reading Pakistan’s Economy Through Its Indicators,” conducted by Founder and Principal Analyst, Ten Services, Khurram Husain on November 10, 2026. The session focused on interpreting Pakistan’s economic indicators and understanding their implications for business decisions, particularly movements in interest rates and the exchange rate. The first module examined foreign exchange reserves, their composition and the importance of assessing available reserves against upcoming obligations. Khurram Husain explained measures such as import cover, net reserves and debt service cover to assess Pakistan’s external liquidity position. Drawing on historical interest rate cycles, he discussed how external pressures can help distinguish a one-off policy rate adjustment from a sustained tightening cycle and offer indications of when a cycle may peak or easing may begin. The session also provided practical guidance on reading Pakistan’s balance of payments, including the current, capital and financial accounts. It explored how inflows, outflows and external borrowing affect reserves and debt, helping participants understand the relationships behind headline economic figures. The second module focused on rupee liquidity, dollar availability and exchange rate movements. It covered reserve money, broad money and the State Bank of Pakistan’s net domestic and foreign assets, examining how government borrowing, lending to banks and changes in government deposits influence domestic liquidity. Historical periods of economic stress and stabilisation illustrated how these developments interact with foreign exchange reserves and pressure on the rupee. Through scenario-based exercises, participants assessed whether exchange rate pressures were mounting, steady or dissipating. The session concluded with guidance on monitoring import cover, debt service cover, domestic liquidity relative to foreign exchange reserves, and market signals such as Treasury bill auction yields to support informed business assessments.