The Devil's Advocate https://teapaw.org/t.co/x4MfBkQWTG
Naples, FL
Joined June 2009
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There is so much truth in this post.
From the heart, guys. I got lucky with poker & it had nothing to do with cards. I'd already started a family & put in years on the trading floor. I was fortunate to find poker at 27 & not 18. If I found poker as a teen, I don't know where I'd be. Same brain, same competitiveness, no anchor.
I've watched it happen too many times. A kid finds the game early, he's good at it, or even great at it, but it takes everything out of him & more often than not takes everything away from him. His twenties & thirties just get lost in time.
Those are the years you're supposed to be meeting someone & building a life outside the room. The game doesn't tell you it's doing that. It just does. Every year feels like one more year. Then you look up & you're 35 or 45 with a hotel key card & nothing else. The opportunity to build a family continues to slip away.
Not a lecture. The game has given me plenty. But it takes a lot from people who never had anything else to hold onto. It's dark, but we need to talk about it.
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teapaw.org/IBookWins/status/20767…
More and more likely every day. They are going to get bought out by one of $MSFT $META or similar
Bond market completely shuts off Anthropic ability to raise debt based on their extreme risk of default. All debt raises will require a parental co-signer for the company. It’s over for Ai.
Anthropic only needs to raise hundreds of billions of dollars a year on other people’s credit history.
TeraWulf signed a credit support agreement with Google $GOOG to support financing for its Justified data center campus in Hawesville, Kentucky, tied to an approximately $19 billion long-term lease commitment with Anthropic.
According to ChainCatcher, Google will provide contractual credit support for anticipated debt financing; Alphabet’s senior unsecured debt is rated AA+ by S&P and Aa2 by Moody’s. The data center is expected to begin phased delivery in late 2027 and continue through the second quarter of 2028. TeraWulf said the agreement strengthens the project’s financing framework and construction execution, helping convert long-term AI and high-performance computing leasing demand into recurring cash flow.
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YouGotHozed retweeted
My goodness I am bearish and negative every thing right now.
OpenAI and Anthropic's revenues are going to plateau if not plummet in the next 1-3 quarters and the down the line effect for the rest of the market and economy is going to be disastrous IMO.
AI literally does not do anything but office admin work and BS vibe coding which is worth exactly $0 to anyone with an IQ above 90.
YouGotHozed retweeted
It's that time of the year to point out that Florida upside down looks like the Grinch! 🤯
YouGotHozed retweeted
You don't need to crash a plane to learn to fly ... and you don't need VC to build a business.
Everyone who learned the word EPA in 2021 wants the coach to go for 2 down 14. I pulled every play since 2016 to see what it's actually worth.
169 times a team was down 14 in the 4th and scored a TD. 124 kicked, 45 went for 2.
Went for 2: second TD 8 of 45 times, then 4-4.
Kicked: second TD 35 of 124 times, then 16-16-3.
Coin flip either way. And in 77% of these games the team never scored again, so the conversion choice was theater.
The 2-pt rate itself isn't the problem, 23/45 is right on the league number. The problem is the lever. The paper gain is 12.5 points of win probability, but only once you get a second TD, and you get that second TD 1 in 4 times. Net: 2-3% of games.
A win every couple of years, maybe. You'd need thousands of games to prove it, and the error on your own team's 2-pt rate is bigger than the edge.
I bet numbers, not narratives. This one is a narrative. It's not an edge, it doesn't price into a live line, and a coach who kicks isn't costing you a single unit over an entire career. If your model is leaning on it, your model is leaning on noise.
2016-2026, 169 games, nflverse pbp, run it yourself.
The NFL analytics models have no conditional inputs to the actual situation. They are all league averages over a decade plus of sample size.
Every team, every game, every situation is not league average, which is why conditional and in the moment inputs matter, which the model is NOT quantifying.
Therefore, the models have enormous model error, and are flat out wrong.
If the inputs are flawed the outputs are wrong. Period.
My NFL + NCAAF models at edgefndr.com are +116.3u on 539 plays this season.
Every one posted before kickoff with stake and book, graded as posted. The full ledger is on the site.
@EdgeFndr
Stop guessing, start finding an Edge.
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The NFL analytics models have no conditional inputs to the actual situation. They are all league averages over a decade plus of sample size.
Every team, every game, every situation is not league average, which is why conditional and in the moment inputs matter, which the model is NOT quantifying.
Therefore, the models have enormous model error, and are flat out wrong.
If the inputs are flawed the outputs are wrong. Period.
Guys my models are +106u on the year:
edgefndr.com
If you want to stop guessing and start finding an Edge, every pick, every book, posted days before kickoff with expected edge, sizing, and graded accordingly.
Fade or follow up to you.
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edgefndr.com
+106.18u on the year NFL + NCAAF
Stop guessing, start finding an Edge.
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"The analytics say going for 2 down 14 is +EV in all situations"
Meanwhile the models are only taking into account decades long league averages and nothing situational or conditional in the moment.
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If the goal of going for 2 when down 14 is it increases your win % - why would you not only go for 2 on the second TD when you have a chance to win or tie?
Going for 2 on the first TD is abhorrently bad. 50% of the time (roughly league average) you are now playing a 50/50 JUST TO TIE THE GAME rather than win.
Add in model error and these are not 50/50s in the moment team by team, game by game... it is a massive massive blunder to go for 2 down 14. Kick the extra pt and you go for it TO WIN on the 2nd TD if the coach wants to get aggressive.
Really every team should be playing for OT. They are raising their risk of ruin (in game) every time they go for 2 down 14 unless they are wildly above league average on 2pt conversions, which only about 4 teams are.
edgefndr.com +103u on the year if you guys want to stop guessing and start finding an edge
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The models are just assuming extremely favorable and tight conditions to show a +EV win % when going for 2, when in reality these inputs are not even remotely correct.
The models that say go for 2 down 14 have error and are incorrect.
The models that say go for 2 down 14 are assuming 50/50 win share in Overtime.
Just start and stop right there. That's a wildly optimistic assumption and creates error in everything downstream of it.
So many fake sharps expose themselves over and over and over again when it comes to NFL "analytics"
You guys REALLY need to take a statistics course before you speak publicly
