We empower clients with the knowledge to properly understand the uncertainties of global markets. Not Investment Advice.

Halifax, Canada
Joined September 2014
The Canadian government's mass immigration policies of the last 10 years were highly regressive. Having seemingly learned nothing, they are dead set on turning back on the taps rather than letting the country heal. On cue, the media has begun parroting the government's narrative and gaslighting anyone who disagrees. This suggests that they remain blissfully unaware that the Bank of Canada has written extensively about how (mass) immigration has negatively affected housing, rents, inflation, labour supply, wages, and productivity. So I've compiled an inexhaustive list to help these folks. 🏘️- Monetary Policy Report, October 2023 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"The strength in rent and other housing costs is partly due to strong housing demand, which is supported by rapid population growth, and a structural lack of housing supply" 🏘️- Staff Analytical Note, December 2023 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"The rise in immigration is nonetheless contributing to pressures in inflation components linked to house prices, given that it is adding more to housing demand than to housing supply in the context of structural imbalances in the Canadian housing market." 🏘️ - Speech by Toni Gravelle, December 2023 🔗bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/econ… ▶️"When a country’s population is growing quickly, the supply of housing also needs to increase to avoid a worsening in affordability. Shortly after immigration began ramping up in 2015, Canada’s vacancy rate—a measure of how many apartments and houses there are available to rent or buy—started to fall." 🏘️ - Monetary Policy Report, January 2024 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"A larger increase in newcomers than in the past is adding pressure to the structural supply constraint in housing. This has helped to push the overall housing vacancy rate to record lows, which has underpinned house prices and led to higher rents (Chart 3-A)." 🏘️ - Staff Analytical Note, April 2024 🔗 bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/staf… ▶️"Meanwhile, the composition of immigrants coming to Canada has changed considerably since 2015. Historically, growth of the immigrant population in Canada came mostly from permanent residents....While the wages of the earlier immigrants are closer to those of Canadian-born workers and have been increasing over time, those of non-permanent residents are much lower and have fallen over this period. Because real hourly wages are typically correlated with labour productivity, this piece of evidence is consistent with non-permanent residents working in less productive occupations." 🏘️ - Monetary Policy Report, July 2024 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"The increase in housing demand from newcomers is being felt across all types of housing, but the largest initial impact tends to be in rental markets. This is because most newcomers start out as renters." 👨‍🌾 - Staff Analytical Note, May 2025 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️"if newcomers’ conditional wages reflect their labour productivity, the productive capacity of the Canadian economy grew less than it would have if recent newcomers had the same socio-economic characteristics as in the past." ▶️"However, this gain has been particularly acute for certain industries such as accommodation and food services, business, building and other support services, and retail trade. Labour productivity in these industries—which are comprised of a sizable share of lower-skilled occupations—is lower than the average in the business sector." 👨‍🌾 - Staff Analytical Note, May 2025 🔗bankofcanada.ca/2025/06/staf… ▶️"Youth—individuals 15–24 years of age—represent a significant portion of the overall increase in unemployment since the start of 2023. This is a larger share than during other periods of rising unemployment (Chart 5). This is partly due to the high number of immigrants, who are generally younger than the rest of the population." 👨‍🌾 - Speech by Nicolas Vincent, May 2026 🔗bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/u… ▶️“The labour market is particularly challenging for young people”: The 2022–24 influx of young newcomers “intensified competition in Canada for lower-skill and entry-level jobs”. Youth unemployment has risen above 14%, and he expects it may normalize now that immigration has been cut. 🏘️ - Staff Article, September 2026 🔗bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/spar… ▶️"Strong population growth drove asking rents higher in recent years"
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Check out the latest Loonie Hour article. It includes a free Canadian chartpack you can download. Link below.
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Replying to @acoyne
Sir, the Bank of Canada has written extensively on this. It literally has impacted rents and housing prices.
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Loonie Hour is live in Montreal tomorrow! Still a few tickets available here. eventbrite.com/e/montreal-th…
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Canada's Mass Immigration (2017 to 2025) was the worst economic policy decision in Canadian history. It was NOT progressive; it was, in fact, extremely REGRESSIVE. It transferred wealth and market power: ➡️from the Young to the Old, ➡️from the Poor to the Rich, ➡️from Labour to Corporations, and ➡️from the Renter Class to the Owner Class. Prior to 2015, immigration to Canada was high and focused on high-skilled, high-wage labour. In 2015, THIS government CHANGED the RULES, which shifted the focus to low-skilled, low-wage labour. This hurt the job prospects of young Canadians entering the labour market, put downward pressure on wages and lowered Canada's productivity. ➡️bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/staf…) It also increased housing costs, particularly for renters, who tend to be poorer and younger. ➡️bankofcanada.ca/publications… In short, it was horrific for the youngest, poorest and most vulnerable in our society. Never mind the social upheaval it caused. Now that Job Vacancies have normalized and rents are falling, this government is floating the idea of raising immigration. It is outrageous. Worse, it is, again, being pitched as progressive when it is not. It hurts the Working Class; Bernie Sanders was right...youtu.be/vf-k6qOfXz0 The only thing that will improve the standard of living for working-class people is productivity growth. That's it.
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Montreal! The Loonie Hour is coming to town! Come grab a drink or three with the boys and enjoy canapés and a lively macro discussion! eventbrite.com/e/20004986794… P.S. There is no Habs game that night! 😉
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France first, then the others.
*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaoneOct 5
FRENCH CENTRAL BANK HEAD EMMANUEL MOULIN WARNS STATE AT RISK OF BEING ‘STRANGLED BY INTEREST RATES’ - FT
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Eby backing away from his condo bailout and hard pivots to a 2% "empty condo tax" on developers if new units sit vacant. My jaw is on the floor. Not because he backed away from the condo bailout, but because instead he decided to nuke an industry already teetering on collapse.
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Global bond risk is synchronized.
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Besides the obvious fact that the EU is cracking economically and politically. This doesn’t seem very democratic. No one ran on this and no one voted for it.
Reuters
@ReutersSep 13
Carney pushes idea of making Canada 'associate member' of EU, WSJ reports reut.rs/4yAWSOQ reut.rs/4yAWSOQ
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It is unacceptable that our government would even consider handing over an iota of Canadian sovereignty to bureaucrats 5000 km away! This is anti-democratic and borderline sinister, given how obviously premeditated it is. From an economic standpoint, increasing trade with the EU makes sense, but hitching ourselves to that regulatory anchor is self harm.
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It’s Friday which means a new edition of one of my fave podcasts is released- I often listen while driving to Friday night games, so for my 🇨🇦 followers I highly recommend the Loonie Hour with @SteveSaretsky @IceCapGlobal (Keith Dicker & @RichardDias_CFA & @BenRabidoux this week
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Lots to talk about on Sept 22. Tickets still available
In a couple of weeks, I’ll be speaking at the Windsor-Essex Economic Summit in Windsor, Ontario. Please join me and @BenRabidoux as we share our views on the economy, interest rates, real estate, and much more. eventbrite.ca/e/windsor-esse…
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My latest for the Loonie Hour sub. “Ontarios credit hangover is getting worse” looniehour.substack.com/p/on…
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The Bank of Canada kept its Overnight Target Rate unchanged, as expected, at 2.25%. The BOC is moving roughly in line with other major Central Banks.
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Special Guest Rich Dias joins the pod - and he doesn’t hold back! 🔥🎙️ Loonie Hour co-host and IceCap Asset Management strategist, Rich breaks down productivity, the economy, and much more. Full episode drops tomorrow! 👀🍿 @RichardDias_CFA
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Duh-dun... duh-dun... duh-dun-duh-dun-duh-dun-duh-dun-duh-dun... 🦈 Happy Swimming.
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The mind-boggling stupidity of the Industrial Carbon Tax. Canada is the only country on the planet that deliberately hamstrings its key industrial sector for purely performative reasons. ➡️Global crude oil consumption is RISING. ➡️Canada's emissions PEAKED in 2007. ➡️China is building HUNDREDS of Coal-fired power plants. The luxury beliefs of rich, delusionsal Canadians is killing us. WTF are we doing here, folks?
“Canada’s industrial carbon tax pushes the cost of producing a marginal barrel of oilsands crude to $75 USD (at $95/tonne carbon tax)—well above what new projects in Texas or New Mexico face— […]” “In dollar terms, the oilsands supply cost of $51 USD per barrel without taxes rises to $58 USD with corporate taxes and royalties, and to $75 USD under the full $95-per-tonne carbon tax—unprofitable against a Western Canadian Select (WSC) price near $70 CAD.” Canada’s carbon pricing wipes out Alberta oilsands’ edge in attracting investment dollars for new pipeline: Study thehub.ca/2026/07/04/canadas…
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Podcast worlds collide! Two of the best hosts get together to discuss Canadian housing in the broader global macro context....@ronmortgageguy and @IceCapGlobal. This is too good! Too Much Debt youtu.be/ujCL-sM8t5g?si=3d9M…
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🌎 What should the world really be worried about? 🎙️ Keith Dicker breaks down government, private debt, and what’s ahead. Watch the full episode on YouTube
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