Analyzing private equity, private credit & institutional capital. Join the weekly email list!

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Joined January 2025
Data centers are being funded through SPV structures. Hyperscalers lease the facilities, and often guarantee the debt and provide equity. This allows Big Tech to keep the debt off balance sheet.
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Stress in private credit is highly concentrated by vintage. Direct lenders foreclosed on $22B of debt in 1H’26, per Lincoln International. 70% came from ’21–’22 buyouts, during peak valuations and leverage.
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Tons of juniors in IB, PE and private credit overfocus on technical skills like modeling. Once you get past the associate level, relationships and soft skills matter a lot more for getting promoted.
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A few years ago, private credit was crushing the BSL market. Today, the trend has sharply reversed. The BSL market funded $20B of LBO debt in 3Q’26, almost double private credit’s $12B. High rates are driving borrowers to the syndicated market to lower interest costs.
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PE holding periods keep getting longer. 21% of PortCos have been held for 7+ years, per EY. It was 15% in '23. The exit market is still weak. Most activity has been in the large cap / megadeal space.
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The most intense PE strategy is value / turnaround investing. Funds like Apollo, HIG, One Rock, etc. buy low growth or struggling companies at cheap multiples, and try to fix them. It’s very sweaty on the operating side. You’re trying to squeeze value out of challenged assets.
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The best part of investment banking is the bullpen camaraderie. You can’t replicate the friendships / trauma bonds formed from all the absurd MD asks, late nights and blown up weekends.
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Direct lending fundraising jumped 35% YTD through the third quarter, per Preqin. Retail investors are pulling back, but institutional investors are still very bullish on private credit.
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Private credit is getting squeezed: Direct lending volume sank 28% in 3Q. Sluggish PE activity has weighed on deal flow, while the BSL market is winning more borrowers. Get tomorrow’s full post ⬇️
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Good lawyers make a huge difference in deals. You don’t appreciate it until years later, when some random term counsel negotiated ends up saving you millions. Most big firms have a list of approved law firms for this reason.
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When I was an IB analyst, building a deck or model took days or weeks. Claude can do 90% of it in minutes. I don’t see how junior headcount across finance doesn’t get crushed over the next few years.
If you think you're modeling skills are what's going to give you a long term career edge, you are wrong: > Thousands of hours spent developing the skill > Clueless nepo interns building crazy models > Tasks that would take 1hr+ are done in 2 mins You need to find a new edge
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