$SIVE army 🔥
Mizuho on opticals:
We see CW laser capacity ramping sharply from ~83M units in 2025 to ~427M by 2029E (Ex-7), driven by SiPho pluggables at 1.6T/3.2T and the initial NPO/CPO transition into 2027-2029E as we see yields improving.
We see $COHR profitability lagging as we believe it relies on external lasers for it's leading-edge products (also sourced from LITE) and its business model remains more transceiver-heavy which is lower-margin vs LITE, which we see as more laser-oriented. On margins, LITE continues to ramp GMs sharply from low-30% in early 2024 to the low-50% range in 2026-2028E, while COHR rises more gradually to only the low-40s%, resulting in a 10-11ppt gap.
We believe ELS pluggable modules housing a laser source could start to ramp as well. ELS as the back plate pluggable component retains serviceability in case of a component failure, while enabling laser light to transmit the converted optical signal and advance more efficient optical architectures. $LITE has noted orders for ELS have begun, with we believe potentially 2x content opportunity compared to laser chips alone.
Ex-China, we believe COHR is the largest transceiver assembler with ~17% market share, differentiated via deep InP vertical integration and high in-house component supply. We note some tailwinds with $NVDA, incl. $2B investment and multi-year CPO/CW supply agreement through YE-2030E. We estimate LITE's Cloudlight business (acquired Nov 2023) is ramping strongly toward ~$900M C26E revenues and ~$1.2B by C27E, but remains smaller at >6% market share. Similar to COHR, LITE is leveraging CW/EML in house manufacturing, but we believe it is entirely reliant on in-house laser chip supply, with a path to mid-30% GM. FN is an important assembler, serving NVDA's designed transceivers alongside merchant OEM contracts. $AAOI (NC) is another key domestic assembler, operating three Taiwan facilities (~795K sq ft) with a new Pearland, Texas facility (800G/1.6T) and an estimated SOP in early 2027E.
Further validation of $SIVE positioning themselves for the extreme demand for lasers
The orders are inevitable, I do not see any other option. It’s like a football club announcing a stadium capacity increase, and then not filling the seats. That would be nonsensical.
Bullish
Sivers Semiconductors Invests USD 30 Million to Expand European Photonics Manufacturing for AI Datacenters.
"Glasgow expansion will increase InP manufacturing capacity to more than 100 million CW DFB lasers annually, supporting anticipated AI infrastructure customer ramps."
$SIVE
Tweets about Serenity blocking people, then decides to block me from this comment
All cut from the same cloth. Cowards who only care about engagement 🤡
Give me Serenity, someone who sticks with his conviction and gives balanced arguments, over these frauds every day
Jeffrey Francis retweeted
Just published a new Substack on $SIVE's -25% drop following earnings, because I know a lot of people have questions right now. The drop looks scary, especially with the stock now down significantly from its highs.
It covers what I took from the quarter, what changed, what didn't, and answers some of the biggest questions I've been seeing. I also laid out a year end 2027 price target scenario that doesn't even factor in M&A upside.
This is a long-term game. I'm still convinced by the opportunity and hope this helps put everything into perspective.
I also answered some questions below and can add more if there are any others you want covered.
revoaiution.substack.com/p/s…
New $SIVE live interview just now:
Vikram (CEO) “Many of our customers are high profile customers and it’s not possible for us (to talk about them) until we are collectively able to.”
A clear confidentiality breach at risk if they are discussed publicly
Patience is required
and there’s the block from Moody, he continues his obsession with Serenity for pointing out photonic chokepoints for the next supercycle suchas $SIVE $AEHR $AAOI etc
Moody can’t bear the fact that Serenity acknowledged this before him. Stick to your endless critiques, grumpy cat
But but…insider selling was meant to happen???🤣🤣🤡
Long $SIVE
Insider purchases from $SIVE directors
Featured on Morgan Stanley report
Only a matter of time till money rotates back into CPO stocks
Jeffrey Francis retweeted
I told you guys this was the bottom
While $SIVE isn't rising because of the news from Iran, it is showing massive strength on a generally red day
All the FUD, both the CPO analyses and the fears regarding $META and its computing, has been refuted
There is nothing left but scared retail investors and the recent news from Iran; otherwise, IMO, we would be bouncing today
$SIVE turned green in the morning after starting in the red
Even so, it went back into a deeper red, but it's showing a ton of strength from the bottom
Going slow but steady in a fairly vertical straight line right into the green
IMO, it's time to buy heavily
Long on $SIVE
Indeed, this is the bottom
Semishit analysis regarding CPO delay 1: refuted by $NVDA
Semishit analysis regarding CPO delay 2: refuted by $NVDA
Fears over a deceleration in $META capex spending and computing power: refuted by themselves
Basically, a damage control attempt by Bloomberg and $META has just dropped following the negative impact on the market
It was triggered by a specific framing regarding the company's computational needs
According to the statement:
“ $META is still hungry for even more computing power”
“It is still moving forward with plans for expensive new data centers and recently inked major computing deals with $CRVW $GOOGL $ORCL and others”
It is noted that this statement arrives “a little late”due to the cascading margin liquidations and significant losses caused by the previous media framing
Basically, the two meaningless nonsenses that triggered the 20-70% drops in semiconductors have stopped making sense, and there is no longer any concern
I hope the market digests all this news soon and rebounds strongly
From $MU and $SIVE to $NBIS or $SNDK