📆 Notable Earnings Week: Oct 26–30th, 2026. $10.9T of Big Tech reports on the same 2 days as the Fed. The breakdown 👇 • $MSFT Wed AMC: Azure guided 45%, EPS est $4.71 • $GOOGL Wed AMC: Cloud +82% last Q, EPS est $2.94 • $AMZN Thu AMC: $197–202B sales guide, EPS est $2.01 Supporting cast: • $RMBS Mon AMC: kicks off the AI chip prints. • $HOOD Tue AMC: retail + crypto volumes, est $0.55. • $STX Tue AMC: HDD pricing, est $7.17 vs $2.51 YoY. • $VRT Wed BMO: AI data center power, est $1.82. • $SNDK Thu AMC: est $45.22 vs $0.90 a year ago. • $COIN Thu AMC: est -$0.18 vs $1.44 a year ago. Macro: Fed decision Wed 2pm ET, Q3 GDP Thu 8:30am ET. Also on deck: $LLY, $V, $XOM, $CVX. Why it matters: after this week's chip selloff, hyperscaler capex guides decide if the AI trade gets its footing back.

$ETH lost $2,350. Now what? A bearish chart, ETF money leaving, and a delayed upgrade, all heading into Fed week. The breakdown 👇 •Price: $2,320, broke $2,350 neckline •Pattern: head and shoulders continuation. •RSI: 34, nearing oversold. •Support: $2,280 weekend low. •Reclaim: back above $2,350 voids the setup. •ETF flows: -$198M this week, -$1B+ in Oct. •Glamsterdam testnet pushed to November. Why it matters: oversold RSI can spark a bounce, but without ETF demand or a catalyst, sellers stay in control until $2,350 is back. Bounce from $2,280 or flush lower first? Long $ETH | NFA

🔔 Closing Bell: Gas mega deal + AI bounce. Friday priced an AI funding scare. Monday, a $50B gas merger and Anthropic's IPO filing flipped it. The breakdown 👇 •Deal: $EQT buys $RRC, $13B all stock •$EQT -1.4% | $RRC +17% •S&P 500: 7,676.80 (+0.70%) •Nasdaq: 26,169.38 (+0.82%) •Dow: 52,361.52 (+0.28%) | R2K +0.43%. •Fed: 10% Oct hike odds vs 54% a month ago. •WTI $101.55 (-1.7%) | 10Y 4.99% •$BTC $79.8K (-0.7%) | $ETH $2.3K (-1%) Why it matters: America's biggest gas producer is a bet on LNG and AI data center power. Wall St just priced the electrons behind the AI trade. Acquirer or target: which would you own?

🏗️ $NUE Q3: Profit more than doubles EPS a hair light, but above its $5.55–5.65 guide. The breakdown 👇 •EPS: $5.80 vs $5.84 est •Rev: $11.25B vs $10.84B est, +32% YoY •Steel mills: $1.79B pre tax, +125% YoY •Q4 guide: in line to modestly up vs Q3 Why it matters: steel prices are up 19% YoY and shipments up 12%, so pricing power is back. Nucor bought back stock at $247, returned $629M this quarter, and fired up its new West Virginia mill. Raw materials was the one soft spot, with earnings down 28% QoQ.

$WHR Q3: Loss, miss, guide cut Expected a profit. Got a loss. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: -$0.21 vs $0.80 est •Rev: $3.68B vs $3.94B est, -8.8% YoY •N. America: sales -8.3%, 3.0% margin •FY guide: -$1.30 adj. EPS loss •Stock: -5.9% to $26.45, near 52w low Why it matters: housing is frozen, so nobody's buying new appliances. YTD free cash flow is -$1.1B and there's no Q3 dividend. Small appliances (18.6% margin) are the one bright spot. The bull case rests on cost cuts and a $300M FCF target to pay down debt.

🚨 $DASH in advanced talks to buy $CART Talks died in 2021 at a $40–50B valuation. Now DoorDash is back at roughly a third of the price. The breakdown 👇 •Status: Exclusive talks; deal could land this week. •Uber: $CART's talks with $UBER no longer active. •Value: $13.1B mkt cap; 30–40% premium = $16–17B. •Fri moves: $CART +9.2% to $56.44, $DASH -3.5%. •Antitrust: Killed the 2021 deal; current admin seen as friendlier on M&A. Restaurants + groceries in one app builds a US delivery giant. Regulators are the swing vote.

🔥 $RMBS Q3: Record quarter, beat and raise. Beat its own guide. Says Q4 gets stronger. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $0.84 vs $0.79 est •Rev: $218.3M vs $213.2M est, +22% YoY •Product rev: $114.3M, +22%, +15% QoQ •Q4 guide: $227–233M rev, $0.84–0.92 EPS Why it matters: every AI server needs more memory, and Rambus chips sit on that memory. Product revenue is growing faster than royalties, and the LPDDR6 SOCAMM2 PMIC opens a new socket. Record $102.5M op cash flow, $135M in buybacks. Can product revenue cross $130M in Q4? I Long $RMBS. NFA | 💼

🚀 $CLS Q3: Blowout + a $40B 2027 guide Revenue +83%, and next year's guide nearly doubles it again. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $3.30 vs $2.97 est •Rev: $5.83B vs $5.47B est, +83% YoY •CCS: $4.87B, +102%; HPS +70% •FY27 guide: $40B rev, $21.50 EPS Why it matters: hyperscaler AI buildouts flow straight into Celestica's racks and switches. FY26 was raised to $21B and record 8.5% margins. The catch: the FCF guide was cut to $460M because of working capital.

🧠 $CDNS Q3: Beat and raise across the board. Record backlog, and they raised the FY guide. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $2.11 vs $2.05 est •Rev: $1.63B vs $1.61B est, +22% YoY •Backlog: record $8.2B, SD&A +30% •FY EPS guide: $8.37–8.43 vs $8.16 est Why it matters: every AI chip is designed on Cadence software, so the raised guide says AI demand is still compounding. The catch is margin: non GAAP margin fell 350 bps YoY to 44.1%, while buybacks got a fresh $2.5B.

🪙 Crypto of the Day: $BTC $BTC reclaims $80k into Fed week after an $810M weekend liquidation flush. The breakdown 👇 •Price: $80.2k, down 0.6% in 24h, back above $80k after an intraday dip. •Liquidations: $810M+ market wide in 24h, mostly longs. •ETFs: $774M outflows over 2 sessions, snapping a 3 day inflow streak. •Levels: $80k is the line; Glassnode's $77.6k reference sits below. •Risk: hawkish Warsh tone + $11.1B options expiry Fri. Why it matters: liquidations clear leverage, not conviction. Spot bids keep defending $80k; holding it through the Fed says the flush was fuel. Does $BTC hold $80k through Wednesday's 2pm ET decision?

📉 Stock of the Day: $NU -25% on Brazil shock. Markets positioned for a Bolsonaro win. Lula took a 4th term instead. The breakdown 👇 •Move: -25% to $11.30, near the $11.20 52 wk low •Vote: Lula won the runoff with 51.78% •Contagion: $EWZ -28%, $PBR -21%, $MELI -15% •Brazil: real down 8%+, Ibovespa hit a circuit breaker. •Next: Q3 earnings Nov 12 Nothing broke at Nu itself. This is Brazil risk getting repriced: rates, the fiscal path, and tax risk for lenders. Needham calls the drop a buying opportunity. Falling knife, or the Brazil discount of the year? I have no position in $NU | NFA

🚨 $ANT is coming to the Nasdaq. Anthropic, the maker of Claude, just made its IPO filing public. The breakdown 👇 •Listing: Nasdaq Global Select, ticker $ANT. •H1 rev: $16.3B vs $1.2B a year ago. •Net loss: $80.7B ($72.4B non cash note charge). •Cash: $112.4B as of June 30. •Leads: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley. ⚠️ Price range not set. Reports eye a $1.5T–$2T valuation, Thanksgiving week debut. First frontier AI lab to list, and the benchmark for how Wall St values AI. Would you buy $ANT at $2T?

🚨 $META launches $35B equity raise. First negative FCF quarter since its 2012 IPO, and now Zuck is tapping shareholders to fund the AI buildout. The breakdown 👇 • Class A stock: $22.5B via forward sales. • Mandatory converts: $12.5B, convert Aug 2029. • Q3 FCF: -$2.12B as capex hit $34.9B. • Q4 capex: $49B–$59B implied by 2026 guide. • Anchor interest: $NVDA $AMD $AVGO up to $5B (non binding). • Next: $60B nonvoting share offering planned for 2027. Why it matters: hyperscalers are now raising equity, not just debt, to lock up GPUs, power and data center capacity. ⚠️ Developing: offering not yet priced.

☕ Morning Brief: Futures up, oil off, 10Y <5% Oil cools, but Fed Wed + $GOOGL/$MSFT prints keep risk on a leash. The breakdown 👇 •Futures: ES +0.3%, NQ +0.25%, Dow +0.5% after S&P's 2nd straight weekly loss. •10Y: 4.97%, back under 5%. •Oil: Brent $114.5 (-1.9%), WTI $101 after Friday's 4 yr high above $116. •Crypto: $BTC $80.4k (+0.2% 24h) •Catalysts: Fed Wed, hold at 3.75-4% expected. $GOOGL, $MSFT report Wed •Risk: Gulf supply headlines; 10Y back over 5%. Why it matters: Oil's dip is a relief trade, not a fix. Brent above $110 still feeds PCE and keeps Dec hike odds alive. Does the market read Wednesday as a "pause" or a "hawkish skip"? I Long $GOOGL. NFA

📶 $VZ Q3: Beat and raise, again Third straight guidance hike. Subs are back. The breakdown 👇 •Adj. EPS: $1.31 vs $1.27 est. •Rev: $34.3B vs $34.8B est. •Postpaid phone adds: 406K, best Q3 in 5 yrs. •FY EPS guide: up to $5.04–5.06 •Stock: options priced 5% move. Why it matters: the revenue miss came from equipment, which fell 9%. Service revenue grew, EBITDA margin hit a record 40.2%, and free cash flow was $7.8B, up 12%. That's what backs a 6%+ yield. Is this a real turnaround, or the peak before SpaceX shows up as a fourth carrier?

👀 Weekend Watchlist: Fed + Big Tech Wednesday. Brent at $116 into the 2pm Fed call, then $MSFT and $GOOGL report after the bell. The breakdown 👇 • Energy: $XOM $CVX report Fri. Brent at a 4 yr high; strength holds above $110. • Mag 7 vs 493: $MSFT $GOOGL Wed AMC. Apollo: Mag 7 margins 30% vs 10% for the 493. • Telecom: $T $TMUS fell 8% Fri on SpaceX cell site talks. $VZ reports Mon, $TMUS Wed. • $BTC: wicked to $79.1k Sat, back above $80k. Lose it and the 100 day near $77.5k is next. This week rewards names that already priced the oil tax and the AI skepticism. $VZ Monday is the only print before the Fed. Calm or confirm the SpaceX fear? 💼 I Long $GOOGL | NFA

Story #2 on the tape: the AI productivity gap. •S&P 493: the index minus the Mag7. Flat margins here = AI spend isn't paying off broadly. •Productivity: output per worker. Gains let growth run without inflation. No gains = less room for the Fed to ease. •Breadth: % of stocks above their 50-day. 61% with a flat index = rotation, not a rally. Why it matters: Apollo's Torsten Slok still sees no margin lift outside the Mag7. Mag7 earnings this week close that gap or widen it. Watch: 10Y on Wed, energy vs. S&P, then Mag7 guidance. I Long $NVDA $GOOGL $AMZN | NFA 💼

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read Fed week. Oil at $103, Dec hike priced in. Wednesday's hold is the quiet part. The breakdown 👇 • Fed funds: 3.75-4.00%. Hold is priced; read the statement. • Oil: every sustained $10 in Brent lifts PCE inflation. Higher oil = higher Dec odds. • Energy strength: sector beating the S&P = market betting the oil premium sticks. • 10Y yield: rising after the statement = market heard hawkish. Why it matters: energy closed Friday at a record high. Traders are pricing oil inflation as sticky. What Brent level pushes Dec hike odds above 90%?

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read crypto leverage. $BTC dipped under $80K today. Leverage did the pushing. The breakdown 👇 •Open interest: $ in open futures bets. Rising OI = more fuel. •Funding: what longs pay shorts. Very positive = crowded longs. •Liquidations: forced closes. A big long flush can reset the board. •ETF flows: TradFi spot demand. Outflows remove a real buyer. Why it matters: $645M liquidated in 24h, 78% longs, yet $BTC OI is still $53.6B. Spot ETFs lost $635.6M Oct 22, the biggest day since June. Leverage got flushed. The buyer is still missing.

🔓 Token Unlocks: Oct 25–31, 2026. A light week for unlocks... unless the $HYPE Oct 29 date holds. The breakdown 👇 • $XPL (Oct 25): 227.8M tokens, $17.5M, 5.0% of float. • $H (Oct 25): 266.5M tokens, $15.3M, 6.8% of float. • $FF (Oct 29): 203M tokens, $20M, 6.1% of float. • $COAI (Oct 25): $5M, 6.4% of float • $HYPE (Oct 29?): 9.9M tokens ($785M) per RootData; Tokenomist lists Nov 6 instead. Why it matters: % of float beats the headline dollar figure. $H and $FF add 6% supply each, and $HYPE's date needs confirming. 💼 I Long $HYPE | NFA

📚 Weekend Playbook: How to read oil as a Fed signal. $100+ crude just put the Fed back in play. The breakdown 👇 •Brent vs WTI: global vs US benchmark. A wide gap = supply stress abroad. •10Y yield: falls when money hides in bonds. Oil reversing that bid = inflation fear is back. •Fed hike odds: futures implied odds of a move. Read the trend vs a month ago. •Energy beta: how hard energy stocks track crude. Energy up, growth down = inflation trade. •Core pass through: oil hits core slowly via freight and airfares. Sticky core moves the Fed. Why it matters: Oct hike odds fell to 10% from 70%. December is the live meeting now. When oil spikes, what do you check first: yields or Fed odds?