Actuary with a grá for #dataviz
Ireland
Joined November 2018
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A rough calculation of vaccines delivered vs deaths prevented for Ireland.
The first 60,000 doses prevent circa 50% of deaths.
The first ~1m doses prevent circa 85% of deaths.
The first ~2m doses prevent circa 99% of deaths.
h/t @RachelLavin for group populations.
330 players have played over the last three #6Nations tournaments. One player consistently stands out in the figures, @CJStander.
Minutes played: 7th
Turnovers won: 1st
Metres made: 6th
Tackles made: 10th
Perhaps most impressive is his number of carries.
#ThankYouCJ
I've collated the player stats from the last 3 tournaments here for anyone interested:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Irish Data Viz retweeted
The first reported case of COVID-19 in Ireland was announced exactly one year ago today.
Since then there have been 331,337 cases reported in the island.
Here’s what the last 12 months look like – watch out for how quickly things change in January.
Are we starting to see some early evidence of vaccine effectiveness among our healthcare workers?
HCW cases a percentage of overall cases has been falling rapidly over the last 2 weeks.
The answer depends on how much you trust the data.
1/2
This highlights the importance of good and timely data. It looks like official data reported on HCWs between mid-December and the end of January is junk.
Data transparency and quality standards from @hpscireland and @roinnslainte have been slipping.
2/2
teapaw.org/IrishDataViz/status/13…
Can you *please* go back to publishing daily reports (like hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coro…)?
Just a summary containing tables 1, 4, 5, 7 and 8 would be fine.
Even better: make this available as a .csv
Very important info has been lost to the public since you stopped.
@RiochtConor2
Ireland's rate of decrease in the incidence of COVID-19 has plateaued over the last 2 weeks despite #level5 restrictions.
It's difficult to understand why.
Let's take a look at a couple of potential causes below 👇
1/4
Looking at the different incidence rate by county, there is no one location driving the plateau. Rather, it seems to be a feature in most counties despite each being almost solitary locations under level 5.
Kerry and Kilkenny, however, lead the way in getting close to 0.
3/4
Irish Data Viz retweeted
Can you *please* go back to publishing daily reports (like hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coro…)?
Just a summary containing tables 1, 4, 5, 7 and 8 would be fine.
Even better: make this available as a .csv
Very important info has been lost to the public since you stopped.
@RiochtConor2
A major issue with Covid is its externalities: the actions of the young (<65) are most heavily felt by the old (65+)
Restrictions have enormous cost, why bother?
Gandhi sums it nicely: the true measure of any society can be found in how it treats its most vulnerable members.
If you want a textbook case of an epidemiological own goal, look no further than Ireland's #StayAndSpend scheme.
Our government are happy to pay 20% of your food bill if you sit in a restaurant to eat your meal, but not if you want to get that very same meal to take away.
Here's an idea for @RAI_ie
Instead of our government providing a tax incentive on indoor dining (the UK equivalent has been labelled 'epidemiologically illiterate') why not change it to include take away only and double/triple the tax incentive to help keep restaurants open?
From its peak on 14th Jan, 🇮🇪's 14-day incidence rate has decreased by over 62%.
From their peak, the incidence rate for:
🟢 counties in green (16) is down >60%
🟠 counties in amber (9) is down 50-60%
🔴 counties in red (1) is down <50%
Remarkable progress in just 2 weeks.
Irish Data Viz retweeted
If you'd told me 12 months ago that I'd be following actuaries - !ACTUARIES! - on Twitter, I'd have assumed you'd been hitting the cooking sherry a bit hard.
While positive swabs and positivity rates are still high, the rate of decrease has been faster in wave 3 than in wave 2.
Positive swabs as a % of their peak after 15 days (controlling for changes in testing volumes):
Wave 2 - ~60%
Wave 3 - ~40%
#COVID19ireland
This is likely driven by what we see in Apple/Google's mobility data: people are moving about less now relative to October/November's Level 5 restrictions.
teapaw.org/IrishDataViz/status/13…
Two Level 5s, two different levels of reaction by the public.
The #StayHome message is being taken much more seriously this time compared to November.
A similar analysis to Seamus below but based on date of death (rather than publication).
Daily deaths in Ireland appear to be back to the same levels as the peak in April.
While deaths in January are typically higher than in April, the trend appears to be still increasing.
A comparison of recent posts on Rip.ie versus the previous 5-year min, max and average.
Two Level 5s, two different levels of reaction by the public.
The #StayHome message is being taken much more seriously this time compared to November.