NBA Draft/Grassroots Scouting | Statistics & Data Analytics Major โ€ข Data Science Minor | @calbaptist

Sacramento, CA
Joined April 2025
Final audited version of my 2026 17U EYBL + 3SSB Impact Model I also wrote a short methodology piece elaborating on the construction and statistical framework behind the model ๐Ÿ‘‡
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Cayden Daughtry impressed in today's matchup against RWE, posting 46 PTS, 6 AST, 6 REB, and 1 STL on 51.9% FG and 33.3% 3P Across his 17U sample, Daughtry averaged 28.0 PTS, 6.0 AST, 5.1 REB, and 2.2 STL on 67.0% TS, leading Florida Rebels to a Peach Jam championship Daughtry's remarkable combination of shot-making and playmaking makes a compelling case for him as the best prospect in the world
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Happy NBA Tipoff, Excited to share my 2026-2027 Top 30
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Kevin Porter Jr. has been waived by Milwaukee despite his production as a creator and ancillary contributions Porter put up a 33.8 AST% with a 40% on-ball rate, while posting 6.2 rim FGA/100, 62% at the rim, and a 30 FTr Porter also posted a 3.2 STL%, 1.5 BLK%, and 14.6 DREB%, demonstrating strong defensive activity and rebounding for a guard A career 35% three-point shooter, Porter's recent 88% FT shooting provides an encouraging indicator for positive shooting regression Despite a career 16.6% TOV and 9.3% sTOV, his offensive production and defensive activity remain tantalizing
The Milwaukee Bucks have waived guard Kevin Porter Jr., sources tell ESPN.
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Jake Wilkins impressed in Cal's exhibition game vs. LMU, finishing with 11 PTS, 5 REB (2 OREB), 2 BLK, and 3 STL in 26 minutes As a freshman, Wilkins posted a 4.3 BLK%, 3.0 STL% and 7.7 OREB%, while committing just 3.0 fouls/40 His offensive profile also offers intriguing shooting indicators, with a 77.6 FT% and 49.1 3PAr. He also possesses strong interior efficiency, posting a 71.4 close 2% and 21 dunks Wilkins has an intriguing foundation as a 2027 NBA Draft prospect given his defensive production, with his eventual outlook likely hinging on whether his shooting indicators translate into consistency
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Na'Jai Hines impressed in UConn's exhibition game versus Syracuse Hines finished with 17 PTS, 8 REB (3 OREB), 2 BLK, and 1 STL in just 20 minutes This follows Hines' freshman season at Seton Hall, where he posted 15.3 OREB%, 19.9 DREB%, and 16.3 BLK% Hines' ability to extend possessions offensively while providing substantial value around the rim gives him an intriguing foundation as a lottery prospect in the 2027 NBA Draft
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Brandon Hahn (@brandonhahn23) commits to Pepperdine after a productive summer with Lakeshow 3SSB Across 3SSB play, Hahn posted 28.8 PTS/70, 11.4 REB/70 and 1.81 STL/70 on 64.6% TS That production was coupled with shooting indicators of 10.3 3PA/100, 37.5% 3PAr and 78.3% FT Pepperdine lands one of the most under-recruited forwards in the country
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Contemporary all-in-one impact metrics often regress box score actions onto RAPM to find their weights. A fitted model can give a steal about 3 times the value of a point scored leaving us with an opaque number that can't be decomposed into how or the degree they affect the game why not just count em up? Introducing ARC v3 An Expected Box Value Prior RAPM (EBV RAPM) That aims to quantify impact using possession by possession accounting ๐Ÿงต
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Cayden Daughtry Jalen Davis Josiah Rose Kager Knueppel Benji Berrouet
Build-a-team Picking from the 2027/2028 class 1.Beckham black 2. Jordan Page 3.Asa Montgomery 4. Bentley Lusakueno 5. Yann Kamagate
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Kamsi Awaka (@KamsiAwaka0097) graded as a top 15 player in my 17U EYBL + 3SSB Impact Model The 3SSB DPOY was the anchor of a top 3 defense and champion New Heights NYC Across 3SSB play, Awaka posted a 71.3 FTr, 11.1 REB/70, 4.68 OREB/70 and 4.9 BLK/70, while maintaining a 1.0 A/TO Florida lands one of the most impactful bigs in the 2027 class
NEWS: 4โญ๏ธ Kamsi Awaka has committed to Florida, he told @Rivals. โ€จโ€จThe 6-foot-10 center is the No. 31 overall recruit in the 2027 class. He also visited Arizona, Michigan, Michigan State, and UConn. on3.com/rivals/news/4-star-cโ€ฆ
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In 2001-02, Allen Iverson won the scoring title at 31.4 PPG on 31.7 TSA (-2.8 rTS. ) According to TS Points Added - cost his team 1.8 points per game. Ranked 214th of 216 in shooting PAC, accounting for the massive 38% of team possessions carried, says he was worth +1.2 points per game, ranked 60th of 216. This begs the question: at what point does scoring load start to pay for inefficiency? Is there a third dimension to measuring shooting production? Introducing (P)oints (A)bove (C)ost
Been toying around with the relationship between usage, efficiency, and overall impact. specigically at what point volume starts paying for inefficiency The Kobe or more recenlty Brunson clause: where they may not be the most efficient, but whose raw shooting volume still provides value that would otherwise be lost if replaced by their teammates. Below is a table of some higer usage two gaurds and atheir UW RTS: Usage Weigted Real Trueshooting % court-share.com/luma/builderโ€ฆ
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Isaiah Silas retweeted
UConn has cemented its Blue Blood status with NBA talent fueling its title runs. The Huskies are contenders again, and freshman wing Colben Landrew is at the forefront of the Huskies next NBA-bound group. For @NoCeilingsNBA I break down whyโฌ‡๏ธ noceilingsnba.com/p/colben-lโ€ฆ
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Isaiah Silas retweeted
๐Ÿ‘€ @brandonhahn23 & @anthonysmi2028 #WINNERS #LAKESHOWFAM๐Ÿ’œ๐Ÿ’›
I built a 2026 17U EYBL + 3SSB impact model The model begins with BPM, then the score is adjusted by shooting indicators, creation/turnover suppression, rebounding, and event creation
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I built a 2026 17U EYBL + 3SSB impact model The model begins with BPM, then the score is adjusted by shooting indicators, creation/turnover suppression, rebounding, and event creation
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Baron Sabir (@BaronSabir) finished 8th in 3SSB BPM (via @neilmjohnson) despite averaging just 10.2 MPG, making him the only top-10 player to average under 20 MPG Those minutes came on a Compton Magic roster featuring 5-stars Josh Lowery, Javon Bardwell, Darius Wabbington, Yann Kamagate, & several other D1-level prospects. Compton Magic also ranked 2nd in Synergyโ€™s Net Rating, further explaining why his role was so limited That logjam limited Sabirโ€™s opportunity, not his impact. Across 18 games, he posted a 7.83 BPM with a .66 3PR, .61 FTr, 11.4 3PA/100, & 81.1% FT Sabir still produced 17.2 PTS, 6.0 REB (2.8 OREB), & 2.0 STL per 70 possessions. His ability to create for others remains limited, especially considering he averaged just 1.5 APG despite high usage in HS, but he committed just 1 turnover across 183 minutes in 3SSB At 6โ€™5, the combination of 3P volume, rebounding, turnover suppression, & defensive event creation gives him several avenues to impact possessions His HS production makes it harder to dismiss this as purely a low-minute statistical outlier. Sabir averaged 24.2 PPG as a junior while shooting 40% from 3 on a .50 3PR & 87% from the line, with much of that perimeter volume self-created. He also added 5.8 RPG, 1.8 OREB/G, & 1.4 SPG He currently holds 0 offers Despite the limited sample, pairing top-10 3SSB impact with high-volume scoring, self-creation, & ancillary traits makes his lack of recruitment difficult to justify
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Jonathan Kuminga materially improves Minnesotaโ€™s roster construction Kuminga's 94th percentile DREB & 90th percentile team-miss OREB last season directly address the primary flaw in the Wolves' roster construction prior to this addition With their recent acquisition of LaMelo, his 18.2 3PA/100, Ant's 11.5 3PA/100, & (once he returns) Donte's 12.3 3PA/100 amplify Kumingaโ€™s OREB impact This, along with his 71.9% ATR, 1.46 PPP as a cutter, 91st percentile FTR, & 225lbs frame replenishes much of the physicality lost from Randle's departure Kumingaโ€™s career 12.5 AST% & JMacโ€™s 8.4 AST% still leave creation constraints in this forward tandem, though Kumingaโ€™s 9.1 Pot AST, 1.3 Rim AST, & career 1.26 A/TO show heโ€™s a more functional passer than his counterpart. Jadenโ€™s preceding 3P% leap now needs to translate into a 3PA increase, or their passing & spacing limitations could cap the Wolves' ceiling Thankfully, Donteโ€™s return should help mitigate many of these problems, & at just $13 million over 2 years, Kuminga's acquisition leaves Minnesota with substantial upside relative to the capital committed
BREAKING: Jonathan Kuminga has agreed to a two-year, $13 million deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves, plus a player option, agent Aaron Turner tells ESPN. Kuminga will be a starter alongside Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert on the West contender.
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